Canada - December 22, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 21
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 15.0
Con: 107 Lib: 111 Ndp: 23 Blc: 67
Con: 102.5 Lib: 114.4 Ndp: 26.6 Blc: 64.4

Leger Dec. 21
Con: 28.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 90 Lib: 135 Ndp: 29 Blc: 54
Con: 89.8 Lib: 135.8 Ndp: 27.6 Blc: 54.6

SES Dec. 21
Con: 29.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 96 Lib: 142 Ndp: 18 Blc: 52
Con: 91.9 Lib: 140.5 Ndp: 21.7 Blc: 53.8

SES Regional Dec. 21

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	29.0	44.0	24.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	6.0	50.0
ON	35.0	42.0	15.0	0.0
West	39.0	35.0	20.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	22	3	0	6.4	22.7	2.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	17.0	0.0	57.9	0	21	0	54
ON	37	62	7	0	34.7	64.3	7.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	46	39	10	0	47.9	36.9	10.1	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	90	139	20	59	89.1	140.9	20.0	57.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 21, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 20
Con: 29.0 Lib: 33.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 15.0
Con: 101 Lib: 107 Ndp: 33 Blc: 67
Con: 100.8 Lib: 111.4 Ndp: 30.8 Blc: 64.9

SES Dec. 20
Con: 31.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 104 Lib: 131 Ndp: 16 Blc: 57
Con: 99.2 Lib: 133.0 Ndp: 18.7 Blc: 57.0

SES Regional Dec. 20

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	35.0	44.0	20.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	5.0	50.0
ON	35.0	43.0	14.0	0.0
West	41.0	33.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	8.2	21.3	2.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.2	17.0	0.0	57.8	0	21	0	54
ON	31	70	5	0	32.9	67.1	5.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	51	34	9	0	51.8	32.5	9.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	89	143	16	59	93.2	137.9	18.0	57.8	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 20, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 19
Con: 29.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 97 Lib: 116 Ndp: 35 Blc: 60
Con: 96.7 Lib: 118.0 Ndp: 33.8 Blc: 59.4

SES Dec. 19
Con: 29.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 92 Lib: 136 Ndp: 23 Blc: 57
Con: 91.2 Lib: 136.1 Ndp: 23.6 Blc: 57.1

SES Regional Dec. 19

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	28.0	47.0	24.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	6.0	51.0
ON	32.0	44.0	18.0	0.0
West	42.0	34.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	5	24	3	0	5.2	24.1	2.7	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	16.2	0.0	58.7	0	21	0	54
ON	26	73	7	0	25.0	72.6	8.4	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	53	34	8	0	53.6	33.5	7.8	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	84	147	18	59	84.0	146.4	18.9	58.7	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 19, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 18
Con: 29.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 97 Lib: 116 Ndp: 35 Blc: 60
Con: 96.7 Lib: 118.0 Ndp: 33.8 Blc: 59.4

Pollara Dec. 18
Con: 34.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 108 Lib: 133 Ndp: 20 Blc: 46
Con: 107.5 Lib: 130.6 Ndp: 22.0 Blc: 46.9

SES Dec. 18
Con: 29.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 83 Lib: 154 Ndp: 19 Blc: 52
Con: 85.9 Lib: 148.7 Ndp: 21.1 Blc: 52.2

SES Regional Dec. 18

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	26.0	54.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	7.0	49.0
ON	32.0	46.0	19.0	0.0
West	42.0	32.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.0	27.2	1.8	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	18	0	57	0.2	17.8	0.0	57.0	0	21	0	54
ON	22	77	7	0	21.6	76.5	7.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	54	32	9	0	55.2	30.0	9.7	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	79	154	18	57	80.1	151.5	19.4	57.0	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 18, 2005

SES Dec. 17
Con: 30.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 96 Lib: 141 Ndp: 16 Blc: 55
Con: 92.5 Lib: 139.3 Ndp: 19.9 Blc: 56.3

SES Regional Dec. 17

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	24.0	54.0	20.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	26.0	8.0	53.0
ON	33.0	44.0	18.0	0.0
West	43.0	34.0	16.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	2.5	27.8	1.7	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	9	0	66	0.1	10.9	0.0	64.0	0	21	0	54
ON	27	72	7	0	26.8	70.9	8.3	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	57	33	5	0	55.7	33.2	6.1	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	87	141	14	66	85.2	142.8	16.0	64.0	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 17, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 16
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 101 Lib: 114 Ndp: 33 Blc: 60
Con: 101.0 Lib: 116.8 Ndp: 30.8 Blc: 59.4

SES Dec. 16
Con: 31.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 96 Lib: 146 Ndp: 14 Blc: 52
Con: 93.7 Lib: 145.5 Ndp: 16.6 Blc: 52.1

SES Regional Dec. 16

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	32.0	48.0	16.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	28.0	8.0	52.0
ON	34.0	45.0	16.0	0.0
West	43.0	38.0	14.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	6.1	24.0	1.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	11	0	64	0.1	12.6	0.0	62.3	0	21	0	54
ON	27	74	5	0	27.2	72.6	6.3	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	52	40	3	0	51.5	39.6	3.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	86	148	10	64	84.8	148.8	12.1	62.3	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 16, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 15
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 102 Lib: 112 Ndp: 29 Blc: 64
Con: 100.7 Lib: 115.3 Ndp: 28.7 Blc: 62.2

SES Dec. 15
Con: 33.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 12.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 104 Lib: 140 Ndp: 11 Blc: 52
Con: 100.4 Lib: 141.6 Ndp: 13.0 Blc: 52.0

SES Regional Dec. 15

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	40.0	45.0	12.0	0.0
PQ	8.0	30.0	7.0	52.0
ON	38.0	41.0	15.0	0.0
West	44.0	40.0	13.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	9	21	2	0	10.0	20.3	1.6	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.1	14.0	0.0	60.9	0	21	0	54
ON	43	56	7	0	42.7	56.3	7.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	47	44	3	0	49.5	41.4	3.2	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	99	134	12	62	102.2	132.0	11.8	60.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 15, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 14
Con: 29.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 98 Lib: 114 Ndp: 31 Blc: 64
Con: 97.3 Lib: 117.9 Ndp: 29.5 Blc: 62.2

SES Dec. 14
Con: 32.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 12.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 100 Lib: 144 Ndp: 11 Blc: 52
Con: 97.0 Lib: 144.5 Ndp: 13.4 Blc: 52.1

SES Regional Dec. 14

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	40.0	45.0	11.0	0.0
PQ	6.0	31.0	8.0	51.0
ON	37.0	43.0	14.0	0.0
West	42.0	38.0	15.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	9	21	2	0	10.1	20.4	1.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	14	0	61	0.1	15.4	0.0	59.5	0	21	0	54
ON	38	63	5	0	37.0	63.4	5.7	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	47	44	3	0	48.9	40.5	4.5	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	94	142	10	61	96.0	139.8	11.7	59.5	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 14, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 13:
Con: 31.0 Lib: 33.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 109 Lib: 109 Ndp: 27 Blc: 62
Con: 106.8 Lib: 111.0 Ndp: 29.0 Blc: 60.1

SES Dec. 13
Con: 31.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 99 Lib: 142 Ndp: 14 Blc: 52
Con: 95.6 Lib: 140.8 Ndp: 17.6 Blc: 52.9

Leger Dec. 13
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 97 Lib: 127 Ndp: 29 Blc: 54
Con: 94.9 Lib: 128.4 Ndp: 28.2 Blc: 55.4

Ipsos Dec. 13
Con: 27.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 83 Lib: 132 Ndp: 30 Blc: 62
Con: 85.3 Lib: 132.2 Ndp: 28.4 Blc: 60.9

SES Regional Dec. 13

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	39.0	48.0	11.0	0.0
PQ	8.0	30.0	8.0	52.0
ON	37.0	46.0	13.0	0.0
West	40.0	34.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	8.4	22.3	1.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.1	14.0	0.0	60.9	0	21	0	54
ON	29	73	4	0	31.4	70.6	4.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	49	36	9	0	49.8	35.5	8.5	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	85	145	15	62	89.7	142.4	13.8	60.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 13, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 12:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 103 Lib: 122 Ndp: 20 Blc: 62
Con: 96.2 Lib: 125.7 Ndp: 24.1 Blc: 60.9

SES Dec. 12:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 13.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 95 Lib: 138 Ndp: 14 Blc: 60
Con: 92.5 Lib: 138.4 Ndp: 16.6 Blc: 59.4

SES Regional Dec. 12

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	28.0	53.0	15.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	27.0	8.0	55.0
ON	36.0	48.0	12.0	0.0
West	41.0	34.0	17.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.7	27.0	1.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	8	0	67	0.0	10.5	0.0	64.5	0	21	0	54
ON	26	77	3	0	25.9	77.1	3.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	52	34	8	0	51.5	35.0	7.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	81	146	13	67	81.2	149.5	11.6	64.5	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 12, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 11:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 104 Lib: 120 Ndp: 20 Blc: 63
Con: 99.6 Lib: 122.3 Ndp: 23.4 Blc: 61.6

SES Dec. 11:
Con: 31.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 95 Lib: 144 Ndp: 14 Blc: 54
Con: 92.6 Lib: 142.3 Ndp: 16.6 Blc: 55.4

SES Regional Dec. 11:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	28.0	53.0	18.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	30.0	8.0	51.0
ON	36.0	47.0	13.0	0.0
West	44.0	33.0	17.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.7	26.7	1.6	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.2	14.7	0.0	60.1	0	21	0	54
ON	27	75	4	0	27.7	74.6	3.7	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	58	30	6	0	56.9	30.3	6.8	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	88	145	12	62	88.4	146.3	12.1	60.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 11, 2005

Ipsos Dec. 10
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 106 Lib: 114 Ndp: 23 Blc: 64
Con: 101.5 Lib: 116.6 Ndp: 26.6 Blc: 62.2

SES Dec. 10
Con: 32.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 100 Lib: 140 Ndp: 13 Blc: 54
Con: 96.0 Lib: 139.5 Ndp: 16.1 Blc: 55.4

SES Regional Dec. 10

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	30.0	53.0	15.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	7.0	51.0
ON	36.0	46.0	14.0	0.0
West	44.0	34.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	4	26	2	0	4.2	26.5	1.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	16.2	0.0	58.7	0	21	0	54
ON	29	73	4	0	29.4	72.1	4.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	56	32	6	0	55.4	31.4	7.1	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	89	147	12	59	89.1	146.2	12.9	58.7	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 10, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 9
Con: 28.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 89 Lib: 130 Ndp: 26 Blc: 62
Con: 89.4 Lib: 131.0 Ndp: 25.6 Blc: 60.9

SES Dec. 9
Con: 30.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 89 Lib: 154 Ndp: 14 Blc: 50
Con: 89.0 Lib: 150.3 Ndp: 18.8 Blc: 48.9

SES Regional Dec. 9

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	36.0	50.0	11.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	8.0	48.0
ON	32.0	48.0	16.0	0.0
West	41.0	34.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	24	1	0	6.7	24.2	1.1	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	19	0	56	0.3	18.6	0.0	56.1	0	21	0	54
ON	16	86	4	0	18.7	82.3	5.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	51	34	9	0	50.1	32.8	10.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	74	163	14	56	75.7	157.9	17.1	56.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 9, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 8
Con: 30.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 103 Lib: 123 Ndp: 19 Blc: 62
Con: 96.9 Lib: 126.9 Ndp: 22.2 Blc: 60.9

SES Dec. 8
Con: 26.0 Lib: 41.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 67 Lib: 171 Ndp: 22 Blc: 47
Con: 69.4 Lib: 165.9 Ndp: 24.1 Blc: 47.5

SES Regional Dec. 8

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	30.0	55.0	10.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	7.0	50.0
ON	28.0	48.0	20.0	0.0
West	34.0	37.0	25.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	29	0	0	3.7	27.7	0.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	17.0	0.0	57.9	0	21	0	54
ON	11	87	8	0	12.7	85.7	7.6	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	40	42	12	0	38.5	40.7	14.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	54	174	20	59	55.1	171.2	22.7	57.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 8, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 7
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 99 Lib: 122 Ndp: 27 Blc: 59
Con: 95.5 Lib: 126.6 Ndp: 26.1 Blc: 58.7

SES Dec. 7
Con: 26.0 Lib: 40.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 69 Lib: 163 Ndp: 25 Blc: 50
Con: 71.7 Lib: 161.3 Ndp: 25.5 Blc: 48.3

Decima Dec. 7
Con: 26.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 20.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 85 Lib: 120 Ndp: 38 Blc: 64
Con: 84.6 Lib: 121.2 Ndp: 38.7 Blc: 62.3

SES Regional Dec. 7

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	26.0	58.0	12.0	0.0
PQ	7.0	32.0	10.0	49.0
ON	28.0	47.0	19.0	0.0
West	36.0	35.0	24.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	2	30	0	0	2.1	29.4	0.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	18	0	57	0.1	17.8	0.0	57.1	0	21	0	54
ON	11	87	8	0	14.0	84.4	7.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	42	38	14	0	42.4	36.5	14.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	55	173	22	57	58.7	168.2	22.9	57.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 7, 2005

Strategic Vision Dec. 6
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 99 Lib: 118 Ndp: 27 Blc: 63
Con: 95.5 Lib: 123.7 Ndp: 26.1 Blc: 61.6

SES Dec. 6
Con: 28.0 Lib: 40.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 75 Lib: 162 Ndp: 20 Blc: 50
Con: 78.5 Lib: 157.8 Ndp: 22.4 Blc: 48.2

SES Dec. 6 Regional

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	19.0	58.0	19.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	8.0	46.0
ON	28.0	48.0	19.0	0.0
West	42.0	34.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	0	31	1	0	0.9	29.9	1.2	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	21	0	54	0.4	20.2	0.0	54.4	0	21	0	54
ON	11	90	5	0	12.8	86.3	6.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	51	34	9	0	51.5	31.9	10.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	62	176	15	54	65.5	168.3	18.7	54.4	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 6, 2005

The new format, which started yesterday is poll, then seat projection, then seat projection probability.

Dec. 5 Strategic vision:
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 99 Lib: 118 Ndp: 27 Blc: 63
Con: 95.5 Lib: 123.7 Ndp: 26.1 Blc: 61.6

Dec. 5 SES:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 95 Lib: 142 Ndp: 18 Blc: 52
Con: 91.0 Lib: 141.3 Ndp: 21.7 Blc: 53.0

Dec. 5 SES Regional:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	23.0	54.0	18.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	31.0	7.0	47.0
ON	29.0	47.0	18.0	0.0
West	45.0	32.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	2	28	2	0	2.3	28.2	1.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	19	0	56	0.3	18.6	0.0	56.1	0	21	0	54
ON	12	89	5	0	15.5	83.7	6.8	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	61	27	6	0	58.6	27.0	8.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	75	163	13	56	76.7	157.5	16.7	56.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 5, 2005

SES Dec. 4
Con: 30.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 99 Lib: 132 Ndp: 19 Blc: 57
Con: 93.6 Lib: 133.4 Ndp: 22.9 Blc: 57.1

Strategic Vision Dec. 3
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 102 Lib: 112 Ndp: 29 Blc: 64
Con: 100.7 Lib: 115.3 Ndp: 28.7 Blc: 62.2

SES Region Dec. 4
From now on with regional polls, I will post the poll results in a table, then a table with the projected results, projected probability, and last election's results.

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	21.0	50.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	12.0	30.0	6.0	49.0
ON	30.0	46.0	19.0	0.0
West	45.0	32.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	2.7	27.1	2.2	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.3	16.2	0.0	58.4	0	21	0	54
ON	16	82	8	0	18.3	79.6	8.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	61	27	6	0	58.6	27.0	8.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	80	152	16	59	80.0	149.9	18.6	58.4	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 4, 2005

SES Poll: C 29 L 38 N 15 B 14
Projects: C 90 L 148 N 16 B 54
Probability: C 89.1 L 142.7 N 20.5 B 55.7

No Strategic Vision update yet.

Canada - December 3, 2005

Decima Poll: C 31 L 33 N 17 B 14
Projects: C 110 L 110 N 27 B 61
Probability: C 107.7 L 111.5 N 29.1 B 59.5

Ekos Poll: C 27.4 L 34.1 N 18.4 B 14.0
Projects: C 93 L 121 N 35 B 59
Probability: C 91.5 N 123.8 N 33.8 B 58.8

Average of last four: C 29.9 L 34.5 N 16.4 B 14
Projects: C 103 L 121 N 25 B 59
Probability: C 100.7 L 122.0 N 26.9 B 58.4

Canada - December 2, 2005

Tracking polls have started, which should mean near daily updates here. I have made a new program that incorporates statistical probability, so I will post those numbers too. They will generally be similar to the other projection, but are a slightly better estimate of what will happen. It will sum to a little bit less than 308, due to small probabilities of independants in some seats, but it should be close to 308. I will also stop posting links now. Go to the Globe and Mail and SES sites if you like.

Strategic vision poll: C 30 L 35 N 16 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 121 N 23 B 59
With probability: C 100.0 L 124.6 N 25.4 B 58.0

SES poll: C 31 L 36 N 14 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 128 N 18 B 57
With probability: C 102.0 L 129.0 N 19.8 B 57.2

Average: C 30.5 L 35.5 N 15 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 124 N 20 B 59
With probability: C 101.1 L 126.8 N 22.5 B 57.6

SES Regional (West of Ontario was grouped, I will have to update the software, totals use 2004 numbers):

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	5.5	24.3	2.1	0
PQ	0	12	0	63	0.1	13.2	0	61.7
ON	29	69	8	0	28.6	68.6	8.8	0
West
All	105	121	18	63

2004 Canadian Election

As a point of reference, here is what happened in 2004.

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Ind
East	7	22	3	0	0
PQ	0	21	0	54	0
ON	24	75	7	0	0
M/S	20	4	4	0	0
AB	26	2	0	0	0
BC	22	11	5	0	1
All	99	135	19	54	1

Housekeeping Notes

Some housekeeping notes:
Since the Canadian election has been called, I will try to update this site regularly. If regional splits are available, I will post those projections. If nothing is mentioned, I haven't found them. If you have found them, then email me.

All of the projections are done with software I've put together. That should be reasonably good at calling winners. I might try to add some more sophication and probability to the software, it would have helped a bit in the BC election. The projections are based on the 2004 election results, so party switches since then will not be considered. The Green Party was not competitive in any seats in 2004, so they will be neglected. If the Blc polling result is not given in the poll, I will make an assumption. Projected Blc seat counts from a national poll is not a great way of doing things, but it is all that can be done.

One riding in 2004 was won by an independent. The winner in that riding, Chuck Cadman, died in July 2005. So hereafter, this seat will be projected to the conservative party, since it doesn't make sense to project it as independent. That is not a certain result, but is likely.

Canada - November 30, 2005

Ipsos Poll: Con 31 Lib 31 Ndp 18 Blc 14
Projects to: Con 112 Lib 100 Ndp 33 Ind 1 Blc 62

Canada Election Polls - November 28, 2005

Ipsos Poll: Con 30 Lib 34 Ndp 16 Blc 15
Projects to: Con 106 Lib 117 Ndp 23 Blc 61

Ekos Poll: Con 29.4 Lib 38.7 Ndp 16.9 Blc 10.6
Project to: Con 84 Lib 148 Ndp 23 Blc 52
Also includes regional splits.
Those project to: Con 81 Lib 148 Ndp 24 Blc 54

Pollara Poll: Con 31 Lib 36 Ndp 16 Blc 14
Projects to: Con 104 Lib 126 Ndp 20 Blc 57
Also includes regional splits. They grouped AB with MB/SK for some reason, so will use the Ekos numbers in those two regions.
Those project to: Con 104 Lib 107 Ndp 29 Blc 67

Canada Election Polls - November 17, 2005

SES Poll: Con 28 Lib 34 Ndp 20 Blc 13
Projects to: Con 94 Lib 118 Ndp 36 Blc 59 Ind 1
Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13.

Pollara Poll: Con 28 Lib 36 Ndp 20 Blc 11
Projects to: Con 86 Lib 131 Ndp 36 Blc 54 Ind 1

Decima Poll: Con 26 Lib 33 Ndp 22 Blc 13
Projects to: Con 86 Lib 115 Ndp 47 Blc 59 Ind 1

Note: I have stopped posted Grn totals, since it is unlikely they will win any seats. If they do, it would probably be a regional trend, rather than a national one.

Canada Election Polls - November 12, 2005

Ipsos Poll: Con 28 Lib 34 Ndp 19 Blc 13 Gre 4
Projects to: Con 95 Lib 118 Ndp 35 Blc 59 Ind 1

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13. No regional splits were listed.

Ekos Poll: Con 28 Lib 33 Ndp 21 Blc 13 Gre 4
Projects to: Con 93 Lib 113 Ndp 42 Blc 59 Ind 1

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13, Gre assumed to be 4. Not all regional splits were listed.

Decima Poll: Con 30 Lib 33 Ndp 20 Blc 14 Gre 3
Projects to: Con 99 Lib 110 Ndp 37 Blc 61 Ind 1

Grn was not listed, assumed to be 3. Not all regional splits were listed.

Canada Election - November 4, 2005 Poll

Gregg Poll:
Con 31 Lib 28 Ndp 20 Blc 13 Gre 7

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13.

Projects to: Con 118 Lib 84 Ndp 41 Blc 64 Ind 1

Unfortunately, no regional splits were listed. There was also an Ipsos Poll on Nov. 4, but I can't find any information on it.

This site

Since a Canadian election is no longer imminent, I have kind of lost interest in this site. I might post occassionally, but the rate will decrease. At some point I will get to a post-election review of the BC results.

Canada Election - May 17, 2005 Poll

Decima poll:
Con 31 Lib 32 Ndp 19 Blc 14

Projects to:
Con 109 Lib 114 Ndp 35 Blc 49 Ind 1

Some regional results are included, but not all. Guesses are necessary to do projections.

Ontario:
Con 34 Lib 40, my guess is Ndp 20
Quebec:
Lib 21 Blc 56, my guess is Con 10 Ndp 10

Projects to:

	ON 2005	ON 2004		PQ 2005	PQ 2004
Con	37	24		0	0
Lib	58	75		8	21
Ndp	11	7		0	0
Blc	0	0		67	54

Canada Election - May 16, 2005 Ontario Poll

Leger poll of Ontario for the federal election:
Con 31 Lib 43 Ndp 19

Translates to:

	ON 2005	ON 2004
Con	25	24
Lib	70	75
Ndp	11	7

Last election ON was:
Con 31.63 Lib 44.51 Ndp 18.09

This poll was conducted on May 3-9.

Canada Election - May 14, 2005 Regional Poll

Thanks to Neale News, the regional results of the Ipsos poll mentioned below are available. They project to:
Con 107 Lib 93 Ndp 39 Blc 68 Ind 1

Here are the results by region:

	East 2005	East 2004		PQ 2005	PQ 2004		ON 2005	ON 2004
Con	11	7		0	0		45	24
Lib	17	22		7	21		40	75
Ndp	4	3		0	0		21	7
Blc	0	0		68	54		0	0

	M/S 2005	M/S 2004		AB 2005	AB 2004		BC 2005	BC 2004
Con	11	20		26	26		14	22
Lib	8	4		2	2		19	11
Ndp	9	4		0	0		5	5
Ind	0	0		0	0		1	1

Canada Election - May 14, 2005 Poll

Ipsos:
Con 31 Lib 27 Ndp 19 Blc 13 Grn 6

Projects to:
Con 120 Lib 81 Ndp 41 Blc 65 Ind 1

This is a national poll, without the regional splits. So the projection isn't nearly as accurate as it can be. Ipsos used to post regional results, but now that is only for paying customers. Please comment or email if you find a regional split.

For national projections, there will pretty much always be one independent.

BC Election - May 13, 2005 poll

Today's polls:

Ipsos:
Libs 47% Ndp 39% Grn 11%

Strategic Council:
BC Libs 49% Ndp 36% Grn 13%

Ipsos projects to:
Libs 52 NDP 27 Grn 0

Strategic Council projects to:
Libs 59 NDP 20 Grn 0

I've hardly heard of Strategic Council, so I would be inclined to put more faith in the Ipsos poll. Either way, it is a clear majority, but down from 77-2 last election.

Purpose of this site

The purpose of this site is to post election polls. Where possible, these will be translated into seat counts. If you have a poll, send it to me at electionpoll@gmail.com.