More Saskatchewan - October 29, 2007

Here is today's third post, a ranked list of seats for the Saskatchewan party based on today's poll and the below projections. 29 seats are needed for a majority. The probability is determined through a method I have developed, based on the accuracy of projections in previous provincial elections.

Ranking	Riding	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	1.0000	69.58
2	Cypress Hills	1.0000	64.91
3	Kindersley	1.0000	58.82
4	Rosetown-Elrose	1.0000	56.66
5	Wood River	1.0000	49.75
6	Moosomin	1.0000	49.29
7	Martensville	1.0000	48.65
8	Kelvington-Wadena	1.0000	46.81
9	Thunder Creek	1.0000	42.98
10	Swift Current	1.0000	42.08
11	Estevan	1.0000	40.29
12	Biggar	1.0000	37.73
13	Melfort	1.0000	37.02
14	Canora-Pelly	1.0000	35.68
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	1.0000	32.08
16	Indian Head-Milestone	1.0000	30.23
17	Arm River-Watrous	1.0000	30.20
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	1.0000	29.95
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	0.9999	29.02
20	Batoche	0.9999	27.87
21	Saskatoon Southeast	0.9999	27.66
22	Melville-Saltcoats	0.9998	27.13
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	0.9997	26.04
24	Carrot River Valley	0.9995	25.04
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	0.9994	24.82
26	Saskatoon Northwest	0.9992	23.71
27	Humboldt	0.9982	22.13
28	Lloydminster	0.9980	21.91
29	Regina Wascana Plains	0.9763	15.05
30	Meadow Lake	0.9699	14.33
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	0.9381	11.69
32	Yorkton	0.9097	10.19
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	0.7028	4.46
34	Saskatoon Greystone	0.6904	3.74
35	The Battlefords	0.6883	3.50
36	Saskatoon Eastview	0.6683	3.13
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	0.5019	0.07
38	Regina South	0.4380	-1.15
39	Moose Jaw North	0.4146	-1.67
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	0.2522	-5.06
41	Regina Dewdney	0.2010	-6.40
42	Prince Albert Northcote	0.1022	-9.67
43	Saskatoon Fairview	0.0837	-10.49
44	Prince Albert Carlton	0.0669	-11.42
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	0.0560	-12.07
46	Regina Douglas Park	0.0172	-16.04
47	Regina Lakeview	0.0164	-16.13
48	Saskatoon Nutana	0.0154	-16.18
49	Regina Northeast	0.0080	-18.36
50	Regina Coronation Park	0.0062	-19.00
51	Regina Walsh Acres	0.0055	-19.33
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	0.0054	-19.41
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	0.0048	-19.72
54	Regina Rosemont	0.0045	-19.91
55	Saskatoon Centre	0.0036	-20.45
56	Athabasca	0.0003	-26.38
57	Cumberland	0.0002	-27.01
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	0.0002	-27.35

Saskatchewan Projection - October 29, 2007

Here are the projected results in each riding from 2003 to today's poll (SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10). The last two columns are the probability of winning the seat, based on this projection.

The major limitation with this method is that province-wide poll results are projected.

	Win	SKP	NDP	LIB	OTH	SKP	NDP
Arm River-Watrous	S	58.75	28.55	6.84	5.87	1.0000	0.0000
Athabasca	N	34.00	60.38	1.85	3.77	0.0003	0.9997
Batoche	S	54.55	26.68	12.83	5.94	0.9999	0.0001
Biggar	S	64.22	26.49	6.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Cannington	S	81.53	11.95	3.38	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Canora-Pelly	S	63.61	27.93	3.14	5.31	1.0000	0.0000
Carrot River Valley	S	57.42	32.38	7.07	3.13	0.9995	0.0005
Cumberland	N	32.38	59.39	3.98	4.25	0.0002	0.9998
Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	59.13	29.19	5.85	5.83	1.0000	0.0000
Cypress Hills	S	76.10	11.19	9.58	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Estevan	S	62.01	21.72	11.80	4.47	1.0000	0.0000
Humboldt	S	52.58	30.46	13.82	3.13	0.9982	0.0018
Indian Head-Milestone	S	59.98	29.75	4.47	5.80	1.0000	0.0000
Kelvington-Wadena	S	68.46	21.65	2.72	7.17	1.0000	0.0000
Kindersley	S	71.20	12.38	13.29	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	59.11	30.09	4.99	5.81	0.9999	0.0001
Lloydminster	S	60.25	38.34	-1.72	3.13	0.9980	0.0020
Martensville	S	65.90	17.26	12.46	4.38	1.0000	0.0000
Meadow Lake	S	54.97	40.64	1.26	3.13	0.9699	0.0301
Melfort	S	65.55	28.53	2.78	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Melville-Saltcoats	S	49.69	22.55	5.79	21.98	0.9998	0.0001
Moose Jaw North	N	46.54	48.21	1.28	3.97	0.4146	0.5854
Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	40.97	53.04	1.90	4.09	0.0560	0.9440
Moosomin	S	70.51	21.22	2.72	5.54	1.0000	0.0000
Prince Albert Carlton	N	38.34	49.76	7.27	4.62	0.0669	0.9331
Prince Albert Northcote	N	37.57	47.24	9.40	5.79	0.1022	0.8978
Regina Coronation Park	N	34.23	53.23	7.83	4.71	0.0062	0.9938
Regina Dewdney	N	39.11	45.50	11.27	4.12	0.2010	0.7990
Regina Douglas Park	N	31.73	47.77	14.76	5.74	0.0172	0.9828
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	26.68	54.03	7.06	12.23	0.0002	0.9998
Regina Lakeview	N	31.06	47.19	17.24	4.52	0.0164	0.9836
Regina Northeast	N	33.33	51.69	10.14	4.85	0.0080	0.9920
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	42.28	47.34	6.45	3.94	0.2522	0.7478
Regina Rosemont	N	32.37	52.28	10.49	4.86	0.0045	0.9955
Regina South	N	38.69	39.84	17.01	4.46	0.4380	0.5620
Regina Walsh Acres	N	33.84	53.17	6.31	6.69	0.0055	0.9945
Regina Wascana Plains	S	48.53	33.48	14.34	3.65	0.9763	0.0237
Rosetown-Elrose	S	74.19	17.53	5.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	59.01	26.93	6.35	7.71	1.0000	0.0000
Saskatchewan Rivers	S	49.82	38.13	6.32	5.73	0.9381	0.0619
Saskatoon Centre	N	31.79	52.24	11.36	4.62	0.0036	0.9964
Saskatoon Eastview	S	38.06	34.93	22.72	4.28	0.6683	0.3305
Saskatoon Fairview	N	35.17	45.66	14.39	4.78	0.0837	0.9163
Saskatoon Greystone	S	43.22	39.47	13.60	3.71	0.6904	0.3096
Saskatoon Massey Place	N	32.48	51.89	10.30	5.33	0.0054	0.9946
Saskatoon Meewasin	S	35.62	31.16	29.13	4.09	0.7028	0.2038
Saskatoon Northwest	S	51.42	27.71	17.74	3.13	0.9992	0.0008
Saskatoon Nutana	N	29.43	45.61	19.39	5.58	0.0154	0.9846
Saskatoon Riversdale	N	33.31	53.03	8.97	4.69	0.0048	0.9952
Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	55.42	29.38	12.07	3.13	0.9997	0.0003
Saskatoon Southeast	S	51.00	23.33	21.92	3.75	0.9999	0.0001
Saskatoon Sutherland	S	36.98	36.92	21.49	4.61	0.5019	0.4976
Swift Current	S	69.06	26.98	0.82	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
The Battlefords	S	36.89	33.39	24.62	5.10	0.6883	0.3045
Thunder Creek	S	64.18	21.20	9.51	5.11	1.0000	0.0000
Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	55.79	30.97	10.11	3.13	0.9994	0.0006
Wood River	S	66.01	16.26	11.96	5.77	1.0000	0.0000
Yorkton	S	51.82	41.63	0.61	5.94	0.9097	0.0903

A Saskatchewan Poll - October 29, 2007

At long last, here is a Saskatchewan poll: http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=a018f4e1-4745-480e-8ac6-4f4e62907379.

Poll:
SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10

Projects to:
SKP 37 NDP 21 LIB 0

Projection with probability:
SKP: 36.7 NDP 21.2 LIB 0.1

Since this is likely to be the only public poll, I will have a few posts on this one.

Saskatchewan - Nothing Yet

There still haven't been any public polls for the Saskatchewan election. That is very annoying. There are only 13 days until the election. Maybe one will come this weekend. Hopefully.

Saskatchewan - A Tie Projection

Here is a projection if the popular vote is: SKP: 41.0 NDP: 41.0 LIB: 15.0 OTH: 3.0
Projected seats: SKP: 29 NDP: 29 LIB: 0 OTH: 0
Probability seats: SKP: 28.8 NDP: 28.8 LIB: 0.4 OTH: 0.0

So, the popular vote winner is likely to be the seat winner. It doesn't look like 1999 will repeat itself.

Micky

Saskatchewan 2003 - Lucky Effect

In the 2003 Saskatchewan election, the NDP won 30 seats and the SKP won 28. But, the SKP was a bit lucky, they won the closest five seats. Applying my probabilty model, the seats should have been NDP 32, SKP 25.8, LIB 0.2. If there is no province-wide change in the percentages, that would be the expected results. Once polls come out, I will make new projections.

Micky

Saskatchewan - Coming Soon

With a Saskatchewan provincial election imminent, I will start posting on this soon.

Last time the seats were NDP 30 SKP 28 Lib 0.
The popular vote was NDP 44.7 SKP 39.4 Lib 14.2 .

There was no redistricting, which is good news for trying to extrapolate previous results. I have some software written, next week I will post some numbers. Unfortunately, there usually aren't many polls for Saskatchewan elections.

Micky