Saskatchewan Projection - October 29, 2007

Here are the projected results in each riding from 2003 to today's poll (SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10). The last two columns are the probability of winning the seat, based on this projection.

The major limitation with this method is that province-wide poll results are projected.

	Win	SKP	NDP	LIB	OTH	SKP	NDP
Arm River-Watrous	S	58.75	28.55	6.84	5.87	1.0000	0.0000
Athabasca	N	34.00	60.38	1.85	3.77	0.0003	0.9997
Batoche	S	54.55	26.68	12.83	5.94	0.9999	0.0001
Biggar	S	64.22	26.49	6.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Cannington	S	81.53	11.95	3.38	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Canora-Pelly	S	63.61	27.93	3.14	5.31	1.0000	0.0000
Carrot River Valley	S	57.42	32.38	7.07	3.13	0.9995	0.0005
Cumberland	N	32.38	59.39	3.98	4.25	0.0002	0.9998
Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	59.13	29.19	5.85	5.83	1.0000	0.0000
Cypress Hills	S	76.10	11.19	9.58	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Estevan	S	62.01	21.72	11.80	4.47	1.0000	0.0000
Humboldt	S	52.58	30.46	13.82	3.13	0.9982	0.0018
Indian Head-Milestone	S	59.98	29.75	4.47	5.80	1.0000	0.0000
Kelvington-Wadena	S	68.46	21.65	2.72	7.17	1.0000	0.0000
Kindersley	S	71.20	12.38	13.29	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	59.11	30.09	4.99	5.81	0.9999	0.0001
Lloydminster	S	60.25	38.34	-1.72	3.13	0.9980	0.0020
Martensville	S	65.90	17.26	12.46	4.38	1.0000	0.0000
Meadow Lake	S	54.97	40.64	1.26	3.13	0.9699	0.0301
Melfort	S	65.55	28.53	2.78	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Melville-Saltcoats	S	49.69	22.55	5.79	21.98	0.9998	0.0001
Moose Jaw North	N	46.54	48.21	1.28	3.97	0.4146	0.5854
Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	40.97	53.04	1.90	4.09	0.0560	0.9440
Moosomin	S	70.51	21.22	2.72	5.54	1.0000	0.0000
Prince Albert Carlton	N	38.34	49.76	7.27	4.62	0.0669	0.9331
Prince Albert Northcote	N	37.57	47.24	9.40	5.79	0.1022	0.8978
Regina Coronation Park	N	34.23	53.23	7.83	4.71	0.0062	0.9938
Regina Dewdney	N	39.11	45.50	11.27	4.12	0.2010	0.7990
Regina Douglas Park	N	31.73	47.77	14.76	5.74	0.0172	0.9828
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	26.68	54.03	7.06	12.23	0.0002	0.9998
Regina Lakeview	N	31.06	47.19	17.24	4.52	0.0164	0.9836
Regina Northeast	N	33.33	51.69	10.14	4.85	0.0080	0.9920
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	42.28	47.34	6.45	3.94	0.2522	0.7478
Regina Rosemont	N	32.37	52.28	10.49	4.86	0.0045	0.9955
Regina South	N	38.69	39.84	17.01	4.46	0.4380	0.5620
Regina Walsh Acres	N	33.84	53.17	6.31	6.69	0.0055	0.9945
Regina Wascana Plains	S	48.53	33.48	14.34	3.65	0.9763	0.0237
Rosetown-Elrose	S	74.19	17.53	5.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	59.01	26.93	6.35	7.71	1.0000	0.0000
Saskatchewan Rivers	S	49.82	38.13	6.32	5.73	0.9381	0.0619
Saskatoon Centre	N	31.79	52.24	11.36	4.62	0.0036	0.9964
Saskatoon Eastview	S	38.06	34.93	22.72	4.28	0.6683	0.3305
Saskatoon Fairview	N	35.17	45.66	14.39	4.78	0.0837	0.9163
Saskatoon Greystone	S	43.22	39.47	13.60	3.71	0.6904	0.3096
Saskatoon Massey Place	N	32.48	51.89	10.30	5.33	0.0054	0.9946
Saskatoon Meewasin	S	35.62	31.16	29.13	4.09	0.7028	0.2038
Saskatoon Northwest	S	51.42	27.71	17.74	3.13	0.9992	0.0008
Saskatoon Nutana	N	29.43	45.61	19.39	5.58	0.0154	0.9846
Saskatoon Riversdale	N	33.31	53.03	8.97	4.69	0.0048	0.9952
Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	55.42	29.38	12.07	3.13	0.9997	0.0003
Saskatoon Southeast	S	51.00	23.33	21.92	3.75	0.9999	0.0001
Saskatoon Sutherland	S	36.98	36.92	21.49	4.61	0.5019	0.4976
Swift Current	S	69.06	26.98	0.82	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
The Battlefords	S	36.89	33.39	24.62	5.10	0.6883	0.3045
Thunder Creek	S	64.18	21.20	9.51	5.11	1.0000	0.0000
Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	55.79	30.97	10.11	3.13	0.9994	0.0006
Wood River	S	66.01	16.26	11.96	5.77	1.0000	0.0000
Yorkton	S	51.82	41.63	0.61	5.94	0.9097	0.0903