Saskatchewan - Average

Here are the probabilities for the Saskatchewan party to win each seat based on a province-wide projection of the three publicly released polls. The raw data is SKP 51.7 NDP 34.0 LIB 9.2. This projects to a seat count of SKP 39 NDP 19. Ridings that are somewhat close are ranked 33-45, meaning if the numbers stay as they are the SKP will win a majority (needing 30). If they win any seats ranked below 45, it will be a very big win, while if they lose some than are less then 33 it could end up close. All that is not withstanding specific local effects like candidates or retirements, but that variance is factored into the probability calculation.

Ranking	Riding	Winner	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	S	1.0000	72.28
2	Cypress Hills	S	1.0000	67.61
3	Kindersley	S	1.0000	61.52
4	Rosetown-Elrose	S	1.0000	59.36
5	Wood River	S	1.0000	52.45
6	Moosomin	S	1.0000	51.99
7	Martensville	S	1.0000	51.35
8	Kelvington-Wadena	S	1.0000	49.51
9	Thunder Creek	S	1.0000	45.68
10	Swift Current	S	1.0000	44.78
11	Estevan	S	1.0000	42.99
12	Biggar	S	1.0000	40.43
13	Melfort	S	1.0000	39.72
14	Canora-Pelly	S	1.0000	38.38
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	1.0000	34.78
16	Indian Head-Milestone	S	1.0000	32.93
17	Arm River-Watrous	S	1.0000	32.90
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	1.0000	32.65
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	1.0000	31.72
20	Batoche	S	1.0000	30.57
21	Saskatoon Southeast	S	1.0000	30.36
22	Melville-Saltcoats	S	0.9999	29.83
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	0.9999	28.74
24	Carrot River Valley	S	0.9999	27.74
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	0.9999	27.52
26	Saskatoon Northwest	S	0.9998	26.41
27	Humboldt	S	0.9994	24.83
28	Lloydminster	S	0.9994	24.61
29	Regina Wascana Plains	S	0.9902	17.75
30	Meadow Lake	S	0.9874	17.03
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	S	0.9706	14.39
32	Yorkton	S	0.9554	12.89
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	S	0.8294	7.16
34	The Battlefords	S	0.8083	6.20
35	Saskatoon Greystone	S	0.8018	6.44
36	Saskatoon Eastview	S	0.7867	5.83
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	S	0.6461	2.77
38	Regina South	S	0.5817	1.55
39	Moose Jaw North	S	0.5539	1.03
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	0.3797	-2.36
41	Regina Dewdney	N	0.3132	-3.70
42	Prince Albert Northcote	N	0.1793	-6.97
43	Saskatoon Fairview	N	0.1517	-7.79
44	Prince Albert Carlton	N	0.1253	-8.72
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	0.1096	-9.37
46	Regina Douglas Park	N	0.0399	-13.34
47	Regina Lakeview	N	0.0378	-13.43
48	Saskatoon Nutana	N	0.0366	-13.48
49	Regina Northeast	N	0.0197	-15.66
50	Regina Coronation Park	N	0.0162	-16.30
51	Regina Walsh Acres	N	0.0146	-16.63
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	N	0.0143	-16.71
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	N	0.0126	-17.02
54	Regina Rosemont	N	0.0119	-17.21
55	Saskatoon Centre	N	0.0099	-17.75
56	Athabasca	N	0.0009	-23.68
57	Cumberland	N	0.0007	-24.31
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	0.0006	-24.65

Saskatchewan - Regions - November 2, 2007

The Nov. 2 poll had regional splits for Regina and Saskatoon. http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=657c0a81-40ea-40f6-a68e-e2031a3e8fd7

Regina:
Raw: SKP 41.8 NDP 45.8 LIB 6.1 OTH 2.2
Projects: SKP 4 NDP 7

Saskatoon:
Raw: SKP 43.8 NDP 39.4 LIB 12.8 OTH 4.0
Projects: SKP 7 NDP 5

Both those projections are the same as yesterday's poll. Given the raw numbers here, and the totals for the poll, the SKP lead in the rest of the province is probably a few points more than in yesterday's poll. That would change that projection to SKP 30 NDP 5, and make the provincial total SKP 41 NDP 17. Unless there is some local effect happening, LIB and OTH won't be close anywhere.

Saskatchewan - Province - November 2, 2007

A third poll of the week: http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=657c0a81-40ea-40f6-a68e-e2031a3e8fd7.

Raw: SKP 54.2 NDP 33.7 LIB 8 OTH 4.1
Projects: SKP 40 NDP 18 LIB 0 OTH 0
Probability: SKP 40.1 NDP 17.8 LIB 0.0 OTH 0.0

Saskatchewan - Regions - November 1, 2007

The poll in the previous post had regional splits: http://insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=175382

I have adjusted them to have decided voters add to 100. I don't have software yet to do probability on these.

Regina:
Raw: SKP 41.6 NDP 40.2 LIB 12.4 OTH 5.8
Projects: SKP 4 NDP 7 LIB 0 OTH 0

Saskatoon
Raw: SKP 47.0 NDP 35.4 LIB 11.0 OTH 6.6
Projects: SKP 7 NDP 5 LB 0 OTH 0

The rest:
Raw: SKP 58.0 NDP 30.5 LIB 7.2 OTH 4.3
Projects: SKP 29 NDP 6 LIB 0 OTH 0

Combining the projection makes SKP 40 NDP 18.

Saskatchewan - Province - November 1, 2007

A second Saskatchewan poll: http://insightrix.com/site_files/cd76bd107964359ee33743cfd55dc7fc.pdf.

Raw: SKP 51.0 NDP 33.4 LIB 9.2 OTH 6.4
Projects: SKP 39 NDP 19 LIB 0 OTH 0
Probability: SKP 38.3 NDP 19.6 LIB 0.1 OTH 0.0

More Saskatchewan - October 29, 2007

Here is today's third post, a ranked list of seats for the Saskatchewan party based on today's poll and the below projections. 29 seats are needed for a majority. The probability is determined through a method I have developed, based on the accuracy of projections in previous provincial elections.

Ranking	Riding	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	1.0000	69.58
2	Cypress Hills	1.0000	64.91
3	Kindersley	1.0000	58.82
4	Rosetown-Elrose	1.0000	56.66
5	Wood River	1.0000	49.75
6	Moosomin	1.0000	49.29
7	Martensville	1.0000	48.65
8	Kelvington-Wadena	1.0000	46.81
9	Thunder Creek	1.0000	42.98
10	Swift Current	1.0000	42.08
11	Estevan	1.0000	40.29
12	Biggar	1.0000	37.73
13	Melfort	1.0000	37.02
14	Canora-Pelly	1.0000	35.68
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	1.0000	32.08
16	Indian Head-Milestone	1.0000	30.23
17	Arm River-Watrous	1.0000	30.20
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	1.0000	29.95
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	0.9999	29.02
20	Batoche	0.9999	27.87
21	Saskatoon Southeast	0.9999	27.66
22	Melville-Saltcoats	0.9998	27.13
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	0.9997	26.04
24	Carrot River Valley	0.9995	25.04
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	0.9994	24.82
26	Saskatoon Northwest	0.9992	23.71
27	Humboldt	0.9982	22.13
28	Lloydminster	0.9980	21.91
29	Regina Wascana Plains	0.9763	15.05
30	Meadow Lake	0.9699	14.33
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	0.9381	11.69
32	Yorkton	0.9097	10.19
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	0.7028	4.46
34	Saskatoon Greystone	0.6904	3.74
35	The Battlefords	0.6883	3.50
36	Saskatoon Eastview	0.6683	3.13
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	0.5019	0.07
38	Regina South	0.4380	-1.15
39	Moose Jaw North	0.4146	-1.67
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	0.2522	-5.06
41	Regina Dewdney	0.2010	-6.40
42	Prince Albert Northcote	0.1022	-9.67
43	Saskatoon Fairview	0.0837	-10.49
44	Prince Albert Carlton	0.0669	-11.42
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	0.0560	-12.07
46	Regina Douglas Park	0.0172	-16.04
47	Regina Lakeview	0.0164	-16.13
48	Saskatoon Nutana	0.0154	-16.18
49	Regina Northeast	0.0080	-18.36
50	Regina Coronation Park	0.0062	-19.00
51	Regina Walsh Acres	0.0055	-19.33
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	0.0054	-19.41
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	0.0048	-19.72
54	Regina Rosemont	0.0045	-19.91
55	Saskatoon Centre	0.0036	-20.45
56	Athabasca	0.0003	-26.38
57	Cumberland	0.0002	-27.01
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	0.0002	-27.35

Saskatchewan Projection - October 29, 2007

Here are the projected results in each riding from 2003 to today's poll (SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10). The last two columns are the probability of winning the seat, based on this projection.

The major limitation with this method is that province-wide poll results are projected.

	Win	SKP	NDP	LIB	OTH	SKP	NDP
Arm River-Watrous	S	58.75	28.55	6.84	5.87	1.0000	0.0000
Athabasca	N	34.00	60.38	1.85	3.77	0.0003	0.9997
Batoche	S	54.55	26.68	12.83	5.94	0.9999	0.0001
Biggar	S	64.22	26.49	6.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Cannington	S	81.53	11.95	3.38	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Canora-Pelly	S	63.61	27.93	3.14	5.31	1.0000	0.0000
Carrot River Valley	S	57.42	32.38	7.07	3.13	0.9995	0.0005
Cumberland	N	32.38	59.39	3.98	4.25	0.0002	0.9998
Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	59.13	29.19	5.85	5.83	1.0000	0.0000
Cypress Hills	S	76.10	11.19	9.58	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Estevan	S	62.01	21.72	11.80	4.47	1.0000	0.0000
Humboldt	S	52.58	30.46	13.82	3.13	0.9982	0.0018
Indian Head-Milestone	S	59.98	29.75	4.47	5.80	1.0000	0.0000
Kelvington-Wadena	S	68.46	21.65	2.72	7.17	1.0000	0.0000
Kindersley	S	71.20	12.38	13.29	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	59.11	30.09	4.99	5.81	0.9999	0.0001
Lloydminster	S	60.25	38.34	-1.72	3.13	0.9980	0.0020
Martensville	S	65.90	17.26	12.46	4.38	1.0000	0.0000
Meadow Lake	S	54.97	40.64	1.26	3.13	0.9699	0.0301
Melfort	S	65.55	28.53	2.78	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Melville-Saltcoats	S	49.69	22.55	5.79	21.98	0.9998	0.0001
Moose Jaw North	N	46.54	48.21	1.28	3.97	0.4146	0.5854
Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	40.97	53.04	1.90	4.09	0.0560	0.9440
Moosomin	S	70.51	21.22	2.72	5.54	1.0000	0.0000
Prince Albert Carlton	N	38.34	49.76	7.27	4.62	0.0669	0.9331
Prince Albert Northcote	N	37.57	47.24	9.40	5.79	0.1022	0.8978
Regina Coronation Park	N	34.23	53.23	7.83	4.71	0.0062	0.9938
Regina Dewdney	N	39.11	45.50	11.27	4.12	0.2010	0.7990
Regina Douglas Park	N	31.73	47.77	14.76	5.74	0.0172	0.9828
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	26.68	54.03	7.06	12.23	0.0002	0.9998
Regina Lakeview	N	31.06	47.19	17.24	4.52	0.0164	0.9836
Regina Northeast	N	33.33	51.69	10.14	4.85	0.0080	0.9920
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	42.28	47.34	6.45	3.94	0.2522	0.7478
Regina Rosemont	N	32.37	52.28	10.49	4.86	0.0045	0.9955
Regina South	N	38.69	39.84	17.01	4.46	0.4380	0.5620
Regina Walsh Acres	N	33.84	53.17	6.31	6.69	0.0055	0.9945
Regina Wascana Plains	S	48.53	33.48	14.34	3.65	0.9763	0.0237
Rosetown-Elrose	S	74.19	17.53	5.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	59.01	26.93	6.35	7.71	1.0000	0.0000
Saskatchewan Rivers	S	49.82	38.13	6.32	5.73	0.9381	0.0619
Saskatoon Centre	N	31.79	52.24	11.36	4.62	0.0036	0.9964
Saskatoon Eastview	S	38.06	34.93	22.72	4.28	0.6683	0.3305
Saskatoon Fairview	N	35.17	45.66	14.39	4.78	0.0837	0.9163
Saskatoon Greystone	S	43.22	39.47	13.60	3.71	0.6904	0.3096
Saskatoon Massey Place	N	32.48	51.89	10.30	5.33	0.0054	0.9946
Saskatoon Meewasin	S	35.62	31.16	29.13	4.09	0.7028	0.2038
Saskatoon Northwest	S	51.42	27.71	17.74	3.13	0.9992	0.0008
Saskatoon Nutana	N	29.43	45.61	19.39	5.58	0.0154	0.9846
Saskatoon Riversdale	N	33.31	53.03	8.97	4.69	0.0048	0.9952
Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	55.42	29.38	12.07	3.13	0.9997	0.0003
Saskatoon Southeast	S	51.00	23.33	21.92	3.75	0.9999	0.0001
Saskatoon Sutherland	S	36.98	36.92	21.49	4.61	0.5019	0.4976
Swift Current	S	69.06	26.98	0.82	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
The Battlefords	S	36.89	33.39	24.62	5.10	0.6883	0.3045
Thunder Creek	S	64.18	21.20	9.51	5.11	1.0000	0.0000
Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	55.79	30.97	10.11	3.13	0.9994	0.0006
Wood River	S	66.01	16.26	11.96	5.77	1.0000	0.0000
Yorkton	S	51.82	41.63	0.61	5.94	0.9097	0.0903

A Saskatchewan Poll - October 29, 2007

At long last, here is a Saskatchewan poll: http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=a018f4e1-4745-480e-8ac6-4f4e62907379.

Poll:
SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10

Projects to:
SKP 37 NDP 21 LIB 0

Projection with probability:
SKP: 36.7 NDP 21.2 LIB 0.1

Since this is likely to be the only public poll, I will have a few posts on this one.

Saskatchewan - Nothing Yet

There still haven't been any public polls for the Saskatchewan election. That is very annoying. There are only 13 days until the election. Maybe one will come this weekend. Hopefully.

Saskatchewan - A Tie Projection

Here is a projection if the popular vote is: SKP: 41.0 NDP: 41.0 LIB: 15.0 OTH: 3.0
Projected seats: SKP: 29 NDP: 29 LIB: 0 OTH: 0
Probability seats: SKP: 28.8 NDP: 28.8 LIB: 0.4 OTH: 0.0

So, the popular vote winner is likely to be the seat winner. It doesn't look like 1999 will repeat itself.

Micky

Saskatchewan 2003 - Lucky Effect

In the 2003 Saskatchewan election, the NDP won 30 seats and the SKP won 28. But, the SKP was a bit lucky, they won the closest five seats. Applying my probabilty model, the seats should have been NDP 32, SKP 25.8, LIB 0.2. If there is no province-wide change in the percentages, that would be the expected results. Once polls come out, I will make new projections.

Micky

Saskatchewan - Coming Soon

With a Saskatchewan provincial election imminent, I will start posting on this soon.

Last time the seats were NDP 30 SKP 28 Lib 0.
The popular vote was NDP 44.7 SKP 39.4 Lib 14.2 .

There was no redistricting, which is good news for trying to extrapolate previous results. I have some software written, next week I will post some numbers. Unfortunately, there usually aren't many polls for Saskatchewan elections.

Micky

Canada - March 24, 2007

Ipsos-Reid - Mar. 22, 2007 - National

Con: 40.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 8.0
Con: 146 Lib: 94 Ndp: 25 Blc: 42
Con: 147.9 Lib: 95.3 Ndp: 24.2 Blc: 39.7

Micky

Canada - March 19, 2007

Strategic Vision - Mar. 13 - National

Con: 36.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 9.0
Con: 120 Lib: 115 Ndp: 25 Blc: 47
Con: 123.8 Lib: 111.4 Ndp: 26.2 Blc: 45.6

Micky

Quebec - March 10, 2007

CROP - Mar., 10

Lib 33 PQ 29 ADQ 26

Unforunately, I don't have the data from the last election in a file, so there isn't a seat projection for this one.

Micky

Canada - March 9, 2007

Decima - Mar. 4 - National
Con: 35.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 7.0
Con: 129 Lib: 111 Ndp: 27 Blc: 40
Con: 129.8 Lib: 109.8 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 38.8

Micky

Canada - March 4, 2007

Decima - Feb. 26 - National

Con: 36.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 13.0 Blc: 8.0
Con: 134 Lib: 100 Ndp: 27 Blc: 46
Con: 137.7 Lib: 99.2 Ndp: 26.8 Blc: 43.4

Micky

Canada - March 2, 2007

Finally an update on this page. I will try to update more often going forward. THere was an Angus Reid poll released yesterday, here are the projections. The format is the same as before. For national projections, the first line is the poll results, the second line is the seat projection, the third line is a better method based on assigning a probability for each seat. For regional projections, the first table is the poll results. The first few columns of the second table are the seat projections, next few are the seat projections with probability, and the next few are the results in the last election.

Angus-Reid, Feb. 27, national projection
Con: 40.0 Lib: 26.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 150 Lib: 79 Ndp: 27 Blc: 51
Con: 150.3 Lib: 79.6 Ndp: 27.6 Blc: 49.6

Angus-Reid, Feb. 27, regional projection

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	33.0	34.0	23.0	0.0
PQ	22.0	22.0	8.0	38.0
ON	42.0	32.0	17.0	0.0
MB/SK	59.0	19.0	17.0	0.0
AB	68.0	15.0	9.0	0.0
BC	42.0	24.0	23.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	12	17	3	0	12.0	16.2	3.7	0.0	9	20	3	0
PQ	10	16	0	48	9.3	16.4	0.0	48.3	10	13	0	51
ON	61	30	15	0	62.8	30.8	12.5	0.0	40	54	12	0
MB/SK	24	2	2	0	24.1	1.7	2.2	0.0	20	5	3	0
AB	28	0	0	0	27.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	28	0	0	0
BC	25	6	8	0	24.4	7.3	7.3	0.0	17	11	11	0
All	160	71	28	48	160.5	72.5	25.8	48.3	124	103	29	51

Micky