Saskatchewan - Average

Here are the probabilities for the Saskatchewan party to win each seat based on a province-wide projection of the three publicly released polls. The raw data is SKP 51.7 NDP 34.0 LIB 9.2. This projects to a seat count of SKP 39 NDP 19. Ridings that are somewhat close are ranked 33-45, meaning if the numbers stay as they are the SKP will win a majority (needing 30). If they win any seats ranked below 45, it will be a very big win, while if they lose some than are less then 33 it could end up close. All that is not withstanding specific local effects like candidates or retirements, but that variance is factored into the probability calculation.

Ranking	Riding	Winner	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	S	1.0000	72.28
2	Cypress Hills	S	1.0000	67.61
3	Kindersley	S	1.0000	61.52
4	Rosetown-Elrose	S	1.0000	59.36
5	Wood River	S	1.0000	52.45
6	Moosomin	S	1.0000	51.99
7	Martensville	S	1.0000	51.35
8	Kelvington-Wadena	S	1.0000	49.51
9	Thunder Creek	S	1.0000	45.68
10	Swift Current	S	1.0000	44.78
11	Estevan	S	1.0000	42.99
12	Biggar	S	1.0000	40.43
13	Melfort	S	1.0000	39.72
14	Canora-Pelly	S	1.0000	38.38
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	1.0000	34.78
16	Indian Head-Milestone	S	1.0000	32.93
17	Arm River-Watrous	S	1.0000	32.90
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	1.0000	32.65
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	1.0000	31.72
20	Batoche	S	1.0000	30.57
21	Saskatoon Southeast	S	1.0000	30.36
22	Melville-Saltcoats	S	0.9999	29.83
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	0.9999	28.74
24	Carrot River Valley	S	0.9999	27.74
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	0.9999	27.52
26	Saskatoon Northwest	S	0.9998	26.41
27	Humboldt	S	0.9994	24.83
28	Lloydminster	S	0.9994	24.61
29	Regina Wascana Plains	S	0.9902	17.75
30	Meadow Lake	S	0.9874	17.03
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	S	0.9706	14.39
32	Yorkton	S	0.9554	12.89
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	S	0.8294	7.16
34	The Battlefords	S	0.8083	6.20
35	Saskatoon Greystone	S	0.8018	6.44
36	Saskatoon Eastview	S	0.7867	5.83
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	S	0.6461	2.77
38	Regina South	S	0.5817	1.55
39	Moose Jaw North	S	0.5539	1.03
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	0.3797	-2.36
41	Regina Dewdney	N	0.3132	-3.70
42	Prince Albert Northcote	N	0.1793	-6.97
43	Saskatoon Fairview	N	0.1517	-7.79
44	Prince Albert Carlton	N	0.1253	-8.72
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	0.1096	-9.37
46	Regina Douglas Park	N	0.0399	-13.34
47	Regina Lakeview	N	0.0378	-13.43
48	Saskatoon Nutana	N	0.0366	-13.48
49	Regina Northeast	N	0.0197	-15.66
50	Regina Coronation Park	N	0.0162	-16.30
51	Regina Walsh Acres	N	0.0146	-16.63
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	N	0.0143	-16.71
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	N	0.0126	-17.02
54	Regina Rosemont	N	0.0119	-17.21
55	Saskatoon Centre	N	0.0099	-17.75
56	Athabasca	N	0.0009	-23.68
57	Cumberland	N	0.0007	-24.31
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	0.0006	-24.65

Saskatchewan - Regions - November 2, 2007

The Nov. 2 poll had regional splits for Regina and Saskatoon. http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=657c0a81-40ea-40f6-a68e-e2031a3e8fd7

Regina:
Raw: SKP 41.8 NDP 45.8 LIB 6.1 OTH 2.2
Projects: SKP 4 NDP 7

Saskatoon:
Raw: SKP 43.8 NDP 39.4 LIB 12.8 OTH 4.0
Projects: SKP 7 NDP 5

Both those projections are the same as yesterday's poll. Given the raw numbers here, and the totals for the poll, the SKP lead in the rest of the province is probably a few points more than in yesterday's poll. That would change that projection to SKP 30 NDP 5, and make the provincial total SKP 41 NDP 17. Unless there is some local effect happening, LIB and OTH won't be close anywhere.

Saskatchewan - Province - November 2, 2007

A third poll of the week: http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=657c0a81-40ea-40f6-a68e-e2031a3e8fd7.

Raw: SKP 54.2 NDP 33.7 LIB 8 OTH 4.1
Projects: SKP 40 NDP 18 LIB 0 OTH 0
Probability: SKP 40.1 NDP 17.8 LIB 0.0 OTH 0.0

Saskatchewan - Regions - November 1, 2007

The poll in the previous post had regional splits: http://insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=175382

I have adjusted them to have decided voters add to 100. I don't have software yet to do probability on these.

Regina:
Raw: SKP 41.6 NDP 40.2 LIB 12.4 OTH 5.8
Projects: SKP 4 NDP 7 LIB 0 OTH 0

Saskatoon
Raw: SKP 47.0 NDP 35.4 LIB 11.0 OTH 6.6
Projects: SKP 7 NDP 5 LB 0 OTH 0

The rest:
Raw: SKP 58.0 NDP 30.5 LIB 7.2 OTH 4.3
Projects: SKP 29 NDP 6 LIB 0 OTH 0

Combining the projection makes SKP 40 NDP 18.

Saskatchewan - Province - November 1, 2007

A second Saskatchewan poll: http://insightrix.com/site_files/cd76bd107964359ee33743cfd55dc7fc.pdf.

Raw: SKP 51.0 NDP 33.4 LIB 9.2 OTH 6.4
Projects: SKP 39 NDP 19 LIB 0 OTH 0
Probability: SKP 38.3 NDP 19.6 LIB 0.1 OTH 0.0

More Saskatchewan - October 29, 2007

Here is today's third post, a ranked list of seats for the Saskatchewan party based on today's poll and the below projections. 29 seats are needed for a majority. The probability is determined through a method I have developed, based on the accuracy of projections in previous provincial elections.

Ranking	Riding	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	1.0000	69.58
2	Cypress Hills	1.0000	64.91
3	Kindersley	1.0000	58.82
4	Rosetown-Elrose	1.0000	56.66
5	Wood River	1.0000	49.75
6	Moosomin	1.0000	49.29
7	Martensville	1.0000	48.65
8	Kelvington-Wadena	1.0000	46.81
9	Thunder Creek	1.0000	42.98
10	Swift Current	1.0000	42.08
11	Estevan	1.0000	40.29
12	Biggar	1.0000	37.73
13	Melfort	1.0000	37.02
14	Canora-Pelly	1.0000	35.68
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	1.0000	32.08
16	Indian Head-Milestone	1.0000	30.23
17	Arm River-Watrous	1.0000	30.20
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	1.0000	29.95
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	0.9999	29.02
20	Batoche	0.9999	27.87
21	Saskatoon Southeast	0.9999	27.66
22	Melville-Saltcoats	0.9998	27.13
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	0.9997	26.04
24	Carrot River Valley	0.9995	25.04
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	0.9994	24.82
26	Saskatoon Northwest	0.9992	23.71
27	Humboldt	0.9982	22.13
28	Lloydminster	0.9980	21.91
29	Regina Wascana Plains	0.9763	15.05
30	Meadow Lake	0.9699	14.33
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	0.9381	11.69
32	Yorkton	0.9097	10.19
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	0.7028	4.46
34	Saskatoon Greystone	0.6904	3.74
35	The Battlefords	0.6883	3.50
36	Saskatoon Eastview	0.6683	3.13
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	0.5019	0.07
38	Regina South	0.4380	-1.15
39	Moose Jaw North	0.4146	-1.67
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	0.2522	-5.06
41	Regina Dewdney	0.2010	-6.40
42	Prince Albert Northcote	0.1022	-9.67
43	Saskatoon Fairview	0.0837	-10.49
44	Prince Albert Carlton	0.0669	-11.42
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	0.0560	-12.07
46	Regina Douglas Park	0.0172	-16.04
47	Regina Lakeview	0.0164	-16.13
48	Saskatoon Nutana	0.0154	-16.18
49	Regina Northeast	0.0080	-18.36
50	Regina Coronation Park	0.0062	-19.00
51	Regina Walsh Acres	0.0055	-19.33
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	0.0054	-19.41
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	0.0048	-19.72
54	Regina Rosemont	0.0045	-19.91
55	Saskatoon Centre	0.0036	-20.45
56	Athabasca	0.0003	-26.38
57	Cumberland	0.0002	-27.01
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	0.0002	-27.35