More Saskatchewan - October 29, 2007

Here is today's third post, a ranked list of seats for the Saskatchewan party based on today's poll and the below projections. 29 seats are needed for a majority. The probability is determined through a method I have developed, based on the accuracy of projections in previous provincial elections.

Ranking	Riding	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	1.0000	69.58
2	Cypress Hills	1.0000	64.91
3	Kindersley	1.0000	58.82
4	Rosetown-Elrose	1.0000	56.66
5	Wood River	1.0000	49.75
6	Moosomin	1.0000	49.29
7	Martensville	1.0000	48.65
8	Kelvington-Wadena	1.0000	46.81
9	Thunder Creek	1.0000	42.98
10	Swift Current	1.0000	42.08
11	Estevan	1.0000	40.29
12	Biggar	1.0000	37.73
13	Melfort	1.0000	37.02
14	Canora-Pelly	1.0000	35.68
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	1.0000	32.08
16	Indian Head-Milestone	1.0000	30.23
17	Arm River-Watrous	1.0000	30.20
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	1.0000	29.95
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	0.9999	29.02
20	Batoche	0.9999	27.87
21	Saskatoon Southeast	0.9999	27.66
22	Melville-Saltcoats	0.9998	27.13
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	0.9997	26.04
24	Carrot River Valley	0.9995	25.04
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	0.9994	24.82
26	Saskatoon Northwest	0.9992	23.71
27	Humboldt	0.9982	22.13
28	Lloydminster	0.9980	21.91
29	Regina Wascana Plains	0.9763	15.05
30	Meadow Lake	0.9699	14.33
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	0.9381	11.69
32	Yorkton	0.9097	10.19
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	0.7028	4.46
34	Saskatoon Greystone	0.6904	3.74
35	The Battlefords	0.6883	3.50
36	Saskatoon Eastview	0.6683	3.13
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	0.5019	0.07
38	Regina South	0.4380	-1.15
39	Moose Jaw North	0.4146	-1.67
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	0.2522	-5.06
41	Regina Dewdney	0.2010	-6.40
42	Prince Albert Northcote	0.1022	-9.67
43	Saskatoon Fairview	0.0837	-10.49
44	Prince Albert Carlton	0.0669	-11.42
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	0.0560	-12.07
46	Regina Douglas Park	0.0172	-16.04
47	Regina Lakeview	0.0164	-16.13
48	Saskatoon Nutana	0.0154	-16.18
49	Regina Northeast	0.0080	-18.36
50	Regina Coronation Park	0.0062	-19.00
51	Regina Walsh Acres	0.0055	-19.33
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	0.0054	-19.41
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	0.0048	-19.72
54	Regina Rosemont	0.0045	-19.91
55	Saskatoon Centre	0.0036	-20.45
56	Athabasca	0.0003	-26.38
57	Cumberland	0.0002	-27.01
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	0.0002	-27.35