2004 Canadian Election

As a point of reference, here is what happened in 2004.

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Ind
East	7	22	3	0	0
PQ	0	21	0	54	0
ON	24	75	7	0	0
M/S	20	4	4	0	0
AB	26	2	0	0	0
BC	22	11	5	0	1
All	99	135	19	54	1

Housekeeping Notes

Some housekeeping notes:
Since the Canadian election has been called, I will try to update this site regularly. If regional splits are available, I will post those projections. If nothing is mentioned, I haven't found them. If you have found them, then email me.

All of the projections are done with software I've put together. That should be reasonably good at calling winners. I might try to add some more sophication and probability to the software, it would have helped a bit in the BC election. The projections are based on the 2004 election results, so party switches since then will not be considered. The Green Party was not competitive in any seats in 2004, so they will be neglected. If the Blc polling result is not given in the poll, I will make an assumption. Projected Blc seat counts from a national poll is not a great way of doing things, but it is all that can be done.

One riding in 2004 was won by an independent. The winner in that riding, Chuck Cadman, died in July 2005. So hereafter, this seat will be projected to the conservative party, since it doesn't make sense to project it as independent. That is not a certain result, but is likely.

Canada - November 30, 2005

Ipsos Poll: Con 31 Lib 31 Ndp 18 Blc 14
Projects to: Con 112 Lib 100 Ndp 33 Ind 1 Blc 62

Canada Election Polls - November 28, 2005

Ipsos Poll: Con 30 Lib 34 Ndp 16 Blc 15
Projects to: Con 106 Lib 117 Ndp 23 Blc 61

Ekos Poll: Con 29.4 Lib 38.7 Ndp 16.9 Blc 10.6
Project to: Con 84 Lib 148 Ndp 23 Blc 52
Also includes regional splits.
Those project to: Con 81 Lib 148 Ndp 24 Blc 54

Pollara Poll: Con 31 Lib 36 Ndp 16 Blc 14
Projects to: Con 104 Lib 126 Ndp 20 Blc 57
Also includes regional splits. They grouped AB with MB/SK for some reason, so will use the Ekos numbers in those two regions.
Those project to: Con 104 Lib 107 Ndp 29 Blc 67

Canada Election Polls - November 17, 2005

SES Poll: Con 28 Lib 34 Ndp 20 Blc 13
Projects to: Con 94 Lib 118 Ndp 36 Blc 59 Ind 1
Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13.

Pollara Poll: Con 28 Lib 36 Ndp 20 Blc 11
Projects to: Con 86 Lib 131 Ndp 36 Blc 54 Ind 1

Decima Poll: Con 26 Lib 33 Ndp 22 Blc 13
Projects to: Con 86 Lib 115 Ndp 47 Blc 59 Ind 1

Note: I have stopped posted Grn totals, since it is unlikely they will win any seats. If they do, it would probably be a regional trend, rather than a national one.

Canada Election Polls - November 12, 2005

Ipsos Poll: Con 28 Lib 34 Ndp 19 Blc 13 Gre 4
Projects to: Con 95 Lib 118 Ndp 35 Blc 59 Ind 1

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13. No regional splits were listed.

Ekos Poll: Con 28 Lib 33 Ndp 21 Blc 13 Gre 4
Projects to: Con 93 Lib 113 Ndp 42 Blc 59 Ind 1

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13, Gre assumed to be 4. Not all regional splits were listed.

Decima Poll: Con 30 Lib 33 Ndp 20 Blc 14 Gre 3
Projects to: Con 99 Lib 110 Ndp 37 Blc 61 Ind 1

Grn was not listed, assumed to be 3. Not all regional splits were listed.

Canada Election - November 4, 2005 Poll

Gregg Poll:
Con 31 Lib 28 Ndp 20 Blc 13 Gre 7

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13.

Projects to: Con 118 Lib 84 Ndp 41 Blc 64 Ind 1

Unfortunately, no regional splits were listed. There was also an Ipsos Poll on Nov. 4, but I can't find any information on it.