Canada - December 2, 2005

Tracking polls have started, which should mean near daily updates here. I have made a new program that incorporates statistical probability, so I will post those numbers too. They will generally be similar to the other projection, but are a slightly better estimate of what will happen. It will sum to a little bit less than 308, due to small probabilities of independants in some seats, but it should be close to 308. I will also stop posting links now. Go to the Globe and Mail and SES sites if you like.

Strategic vision poll: C 30 L 35 N 16 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 121 N 23 B 59
With probability: C 100.0 L 124.6 N 25.4 B 58.0

SES poll: C 31 L 36 N 14 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 128 N 18 B 57
With probability: C 102.0 L 129.0 N 19.8 B 57.2

Average: C 30.5 L 35.5 N 15 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 124 N 20 B 59
With probability: C 101.1 L 126.8 N 22.5 B 57.6

SES Regional (West of Ontario was grouped, I will have to update the software, totals use 2004 numbers):

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	5.5	24.3	2.1	0
PQ	0	12	0	63	0.1	13.2	0	61.7
ON	29	69	8	0	28.6	68.6	8.8	0
West
All	105	121	18	63