Saturday, January 21, 2006

Canada - Seat Probabilities

Based on national average of the January 21, 2006 post. These don't take into account any localized or regional trends. A probability of 1 means a 100 % chance of victory, 0.50 means 50 %, and so on.

Province Riding Winner Con Lib Ndp Blc
NL Avalon L 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.00
NL Bonavista—Exploits C 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.00
NL Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
NL Labrador L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
NL Random—Burin—St. George's L 0.00 0.59 0.40 0.00
NL St. John's North C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NL St. John's South C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
PE Cardigan L 0.29 0.71 0.00 0.00
PE Charlottetown L 0.23 0.77 0.00 0.00
PE Egmont L 0.09 0.91 0.00 0.00
PE Malpeque L 0.33 0.67 0.00 0.00
NS Cape Breton—Canso L 0.01 0.99 0.01 0.00
NS Central Nova C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NS Dartmouth—Cole Harbour N 0.06 0.35 0.59 0.00
NS Halifax N 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.00
NS Halifax West L 0.03 0.86 0.11 0.00
NS Kings—Hants L 0.47 0.53 0.00 0.00
NS North Nova C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NS Sackville—Eastern Shore N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
NS South Shore—St. Margaret's C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
NS Sydney—Victoria L 0.00 0.96 0.04 0.00
NS West Nova C 0.81 0.19 0.00 0.00
NB Acadie—Bathurst N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
NB Beauséjour L 0.11 0.89 0.00 0.00
NB Fredericton C 0.66 0.34 0.00 0.00
NB Fundy C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NB Madawaska—Restigouche L 0.18 0.69 0.13 0.00
NB Miramichi L 0.34 0.66 0.00 0.00
NB Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
NB St. Croix—Belleisle C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NB Saint John C 0.80 0.20 0.00 0.00
NB Tobique—Mactaquac C 0.84 0.16 0.00 0.00
PQ Abitibi—Témiscamingue B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Ahuntsic B 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.58
PQ Alfred-Pellan B 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.96
PQ Argenteuil—Mirabel B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Beauce L 0.03 0.54 0.00 0.43
PQ Beauharnois—Salaberry B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Beauport B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Berthier—Maskinongé B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Bourassa L 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.14
PQ Brome—Missisquoi B 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.59
PQ Brossard—La Prairie L 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.46
PQ Chambly—Borduas B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Charlesbourg B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Charlevoix—Montmorency B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Châteauguay—Saint-Constant B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Chicoutimi—Le Fjord B 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.78
PQ Compton—Stanstead B 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.98
PQ Drummond B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Gatineau B 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.63
PQ Hochelaga B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Honoré-Mercier L 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.41
PQ Hull—Aylmer L 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.23
PQ Jeanne-Le Ber B 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.66
PQ Joliette B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Jonquière—Alma B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Lac-Saint-Louis L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ La Pointe-de-l'Île B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ LaSalle—Émard L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ Laurentides—Labelle B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Laurier B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Laval B 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.99
PQ Laval—Les Îles L 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.19
PQ Lévis—Bellechasse B 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.97
PQ Longueuil B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière B 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.91
PQ Louis-Hébert B 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.97
PQ Louis-Saint-Laurent C 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.26
PQ Manicouagan B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Marc-Aurèle-Fortin B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Matapédia—Matane B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Mégantic—L'Érable B 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.97
PQ Montcalm B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Mount Royal L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ Nunavik—Eeyou B 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.77
PQ Outremont L 0.00 0.71 0.00 0.29
PQ Papineau B 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.67
PQ Pierrefonds—Dollard L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ Pontiac C 0.47 0.44 0.00 0.09
PQ Portneuf B 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.90
PQ Québec B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Repentigny B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Richelieu B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Richmond—Arthabaska B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Rimouski—Témiscouata B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Rivière-des-Mille-Îles B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Rivière-du-Nord B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Roberval B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Saint-Jean B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Saint-Lambert B 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.98
PQ Saint-Laurent—Cartierville L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
PQ Saint-Maurice—Champlain B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Shefford B 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.93
PQ Sherbrooke B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Terrebonne—Blainville B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Trois-Rivières B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Vaudreuil-Soulanges B 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.90
PQ Verchères—Les Patriotes B 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
PQ Westmount—Ville-Marie L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Ajax—Pickering L 0.48 0.52 0.00 0.00
ON Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing N 0.15 0.28 0.57 0.00
ON Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale C 0.94 0.06 0.00 0.00
ON Barrie C 0.96 0.04 0.00 0.00
ON Beaches—East York L 0.00 0.70 0.30 0.00
ON Bramalea—Gore—Malton L 0.35 0.65 0.00 0.00
ON Brampton—Springdale L 0.29 0.71 0.00 0.00
ON Brampton West C 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.00
ON Brant C 0.94 0.06 0.01 0.00
ON Burlington C 0.88 0.12 0.00 0.00
ON Cambridge C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
ON Carleton—Lanark C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Chatham-Kent—Essex C 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.00
ON Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
ON Davenport L 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.00
ON Don Valley East L 0.08 0.92 0.00 0.00
ON Don Valley West L 0.02 0.98 0.00 0.00
ON Dufferin—Caledon C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Eglinton—Lawrence L 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00
ON Elgin—Middlesex—London C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Essex C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
ON Etobicoke Centre L 0.03 0.97 0.00 0.00
ON Etobicoke—Lakeshore L 0.30 0.70 0.00 0.00
ON Etobicoke North L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Glengarry—Prescott—Russell C 0.78 0.22 0.00 0.00
ON Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Guelph L 0.36 0.64 0.01 0.00
ON Haldimand—Norfolk C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
ON Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Halton C 0.78 0.22 0.00 0.00
ON Hamilton Centre N 0.15 0.00 0.85 0.00
ON Hamilton East—Stoney Creek N 0.06 0.05 0.89 0.00
ON Hamilton Mountain C 0.51 0.01 0.49 0.00
ON Huron—Bruce L 0.35 0.65 0.00 0.00
ON Kenora C 0.50 0.02 0.48 0.00
ON Kingston and the Islands L 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.00
ON Kitchener Centre L 0.31 0.69 0.00 0.00
ON Kitchener—Conestoga C 0.88 0.12 0.00 0.00
ON Kitchener—Waterloo L 0.36 0.64 0.00 0.00
ON Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Leeds—Grenville C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON London—Fanshawe N 0.43 0.11 0.46 0.00
ON London North Centre C 0.50 0.47 0.03 0.00
ON London West C 0.60 0.40 0.00 0.00
ON Markham—Unionville L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Middlesex—Kent—Lambton C 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.00
ON Mississauga—Brampton South L 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00
ON Mississauga East—Cooksville L 0.02 0.98 0.00 0.00
ON Mississauga—Erindale L 0.20 0.80 0.00 0.00
ON Mississauga South L 0.46 0.54 0.00 0.00
ON Mississauga—Streetsville L 0.36 0.64 0.00 0.00
ON Nepean—Carleton C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Newmarket—Aurora C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
ON Niagara Falls C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
ON Niagara West—Glanbrook C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
ON Nickel Belt N 0.01 0.28 0.70 0.00
ON Nipissing—Timiskaming C 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.00
ON Northumberland—Quinte West C 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.00
ON Oak Ridges—Markham L 0.39 0.61 0.00 0.00
ON Oakville L 0.45 0.55 0.00 0.00
ON Oshawa C 0.76 0.00 0.24 0.00
ON Ottawa Centre N 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.00
ON Ottawa—Orléans C 0.93 0.07 0.00 0.00
ON Ottawa South C 0.82 0.18 0.00 0.00
ON Ottawa—Vanier L 0.11 0.89 0.00 0.00
ON Ottawa West—Nepean C 0.96 0.04 0.00 0.00
ON Oxford C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Parkdale—High Park N 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.00
ON Parry Sound—Muskoka C 0.86 0.14 0.00 0.00
ON Perth—Wellington C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Peterborough C 0.72 0.28 0.00 0.00
ON Pickering—Scarborough East L 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.00
ON Prince Edward—Hastings C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Richmond Hill L 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00
ON St. Catharines C 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.00
ON St. Paul's L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Sarnia—Lambton C 0.72 0.28 0.00 0.00
ON Sault Ste. Marie N 0.06 0.01 0.93 0.00
ON Scarborough—Agincourt L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Scarborough Centre L 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00
ON Scarborough—Guildwood L 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00
ON Scarborough—Rouge River L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Scarborough Southwest L 0.08 0.91 0.01 0.00
ON Simcoe—Grey C 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.00
ON Simcoe North C 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.00
ON Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Sudbury L 0.06 0.62 0.32 0.00
ON Thornhill L 0.30 0.70 0.00 0.00
ON Thunder Bay—Rainy River C 0.44 0.18 0.38 0.00
ON Thunder Bay—Superior North L 0.08 0.58 0.34 0.00
ON Timmins—James Bay N 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.00
ON Toronto Centre L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Toronto—Danforth N 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.00
ON Trinity—Spadina N 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.00
ON Vaughan L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Welland C 0.46 0.20 0.35 0.00
ON Wellington—Halton Hills C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON Whitby—Oshawa C 0.82 0.18 0.00 0.00
ON Willowdale L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON Windsor—Tecumseh N 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.00
ON Windsor West N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
ON York Centre L 0.05 0.95 0.00 0.00
ON York—Simcoe C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
ON York South—Weston L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
ON York West L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
MB Brandon—Souris C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MB Charleswood—St. James C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
MB Churchill N 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.00
MB Dauphin—Swan River C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MB Elmwood—Transcona N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
MB Kildonan—St. Paul C 0.99 0.01 0.00 0.00
MB Portage—Lisgar C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MB Provencher C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MB Saint Boniface C 0.52 0.48 0.00 0.00
MB Selkirk—Interlake C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MB Winnipeg Centre N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
MB Winnipeg North N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
MB Winnipeg South L 0.43 0.57 0.00 0.00
MB Winnipeg South Centre L 0.30 0.69 0.00 0.00
SK Battlefords—Lloydminster C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Blackstrap C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Churchill River C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Cypress Hills—Grasslands C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Palliser C 0.73 0.00 0.27 0.00
SK Prince Albert C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre C 0.93 0.00 0.06 0.00
SK Regina—Qu'Appelle C 0.84 0.00 0.16 0.00
SK Saskatoon—Humboldt C 0.79 0.00 0.21 0.00
SK Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar C 0.96 0.00 0.04 0.00
SK Saskatoon—Wanuskewin C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Souris—Moose Mountain C 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00
SK Wascana L 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.00
SK Yorkton—Melville C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Athabasca C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary East C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary North Centre C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary Northeast C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary—Nose Hill C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary South Centre C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary Southeast C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary Southwest C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Calgary West C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Crowfoot C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton—Beaumont C 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton Centre C 0.97 0.03 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton East C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton—Leduc C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton—St. Albert C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton—Sherwood Park C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton—Spruce Grove C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Edmonton—Strathcona C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Lethbridge C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Macleod C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Medicine Hat C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Peace River C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Red Deer C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Vegreville—Wainwright C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Westlock—St. Paul C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Wetaskiwin C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Wild Rose C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AB Yellowhead C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Abbotsford C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Burnaby—Douglas N 0.34 0.00 0.65 0.00
BC Burnaby—New Westminster N 0.42 0.00 0.58 0.00
BC Cariboo—Prince George C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Delta—Richmond East C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Dewdney—Alouette C 0.91 0.00 0.09 0.00
BC Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca N 0.34 0.06 0.61 0.00
BC Fleetwood—Port Kells C 0.95 0.00 0.05 0.00
BC Kamloops—Thompson C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
BC Kelowna C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Kootenay—Columbia C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Langley C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Nanaimo—Alberni C 0.92 0.00 0.08 0.00
BC Nanaimo—Cowichan N 0.20 0.00 0.80 0.00
BC Newton—North Delta C 0.86 0.00 0.14 0.00
BC New Westminster—Coquitlam C 0.72 0.00 0.28 0.00
BC North Okanagan—Shuswap C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC North Vancouver C 0.95 0.05 0.00 0.00
BC Okanagan—Coquihalla C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
BC Prince George—Peace River C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Richmond C 0.81 0.19 0.00 0.00
BC Saanich—Gulf Islands C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
BC Skeena—Bulkley Valley C 0.53 0.00 0.47 0.00
BC Southern Interior C 0.77 0.00 0.23 0.00
BC South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale C 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BC Surrey North C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
BC Vancouver Centre N 0.04 0.27 0.69 0.00
BC Vancouver East N 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
BC Vancouver Island North C 0.74 0.00 0.26 0.00
BC Vancouver Kingsway N 0.00 0.11 0.89 0.00
BC Vancouver Quadra L 0.09 0.91 0.00 0.00
BC Vancouver South L 0.29 0.67 0.04 0.00
BC Victoria N 0.19 0.06 0.75 0.00
BC West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast C 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00
YT Yukon L 0.06 0.86 0.08 0.00
NW Western Arctic N 0.00 0.05 0.94 0.00
NU Nunavut L 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
Total 140.9 77.6 31.9 57.6

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