Canada - More Conservative Seat Rankings

The last set of seat rankings was based on national numbers. After a question from one of the two top pundits in the country, I have rethought things and think regional numbers would be better. I have also changes the cutoff to 0.5 %, rather than 0.01 % as before. Like before, all that are 100 % probability are #1, all with 0 % are #308, the rest are just ranked. So to win a majority, the most likely way is to win the first 155.

1	NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	1.00
1	ON	Carleton—Lanark	1.00
1	ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	1.00
1	ON	Leeds—Grenville	1.00
1	ON	Oxford	1.00
1	ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	1.00
1	MB	Brandon—Souris	1.00
1	MB	Dauphin—Swan River	1.00
1	MB	Portage—Lisgar	1.00
1	MB	Provencher	1.00
1	SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	1.00
1	SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	1.00
1	SK	Yorkton—Melville	1.00
1	AB	Athabasca	1.00
1	AB	Calgary East	1.00
1	AB	Calgary North Centre	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Northeast	1.00
1	AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	1.00
1	AB	Calgary South Centre	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Southeast	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Southwest	1.00
1	AB	Calgary West	1.00
1	AB	Crowfoot	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Leduc	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	1.00
1	AB	Lethbridge	1.00
1	AB	Macleod	1.00
1	AB	Medicine Hat	1.00
1	AB	Peace River	1.00
1	AB	Red Deer	1.00
1	AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	1.00
1	AB	Westlock—St. Paul	1.00
1	AB	Wetaskiwin	1.00
1	AB	Wild Rose	1.00
1	AB	Yellowhead	1.00
1	BC	Abbotsford	1.00
1	BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	1.00
1	BC	Prince George—Peace River	1.00
1	SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton East	1.00
1	BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	1.00
1	NS	North Nova	1.00
1	BC	Kootenay—Columbia	1.00
1	BC	Langley	1.00
1	ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	1.00
1	SK	Prince Albert	1.00
1	NB	Fundy	1.00
1	ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	1.00
1	ON	York—Simcoe	1.00
1	ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	1.00
1	BC	Kelowna	1.00
1	ON	Perth—Wellington	1.00
1	MB	Selkirk—Interlake	1.00
1	ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	1.00
1	SK	Blackstrap	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	1.00
1	SK	Churchill River	1.00
1	ON	Nepean—Carleton	1.00
1	BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	1.00
1	ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	1.00
63	BC	Cariboo—Prince George	0.99
64	ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	0.99
65	ON	Dufferin—Caledon	0.99
66	ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	0.99
67	NL	St. John's North	0.99
68	SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	0.99
69	ON	Niagara Falls	0.99
70	BC	Surrey North	0.99
71	ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	0.99
72	ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	0.98
73	ON	Newmarket—Aurora	0.98
74	ON	Cambridge	0.98
75	MB	Charleswood—St. James	0.98
76	MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	0.98
77	ON	Essex	0.98
78	ON	Simcoe—Grey	0.98
79	BC	Delta—Richmond East	0.97
80	ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	0.97
81	ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	0.97
82	ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	0.97
83	AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	0.97
84	BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	0.96
85	AB	Edmonton Centre	0.96
86	BC	Kamloops—Thompson	0.95
87	ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	0.95
88	ON	Barrie	0.95
89	SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	0.94
90	NL	St. John's South	0.94
91	NS	Central Nova	0.93
92	ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	0.92
93	ON	Brant	0.92
94	BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	0.91
95	ON	Ottawa—Orléans	0.91
96	NL	Bonavista—Exploits	0.91
97	SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	0.91
98	ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	0.90
99	ON	St. Catharines	0.89
100	PQ	Pontiac	0.89
101	ON	Simcoe North	0.89
102	ON	Brampton West	0.89
103	PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	0.88
104	NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	0.86
105	BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	0.86
106	ON	Burlington	0.86
107	ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	0.85
108	NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	0.85
109	NB	Saint John	0.83
110	ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	0.82
111	NS	West Nova	0.80
112	BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	0.80
113	SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	0.80
114	ON	Ottawa South	0.77
115	ON	Whitby—Oshawa	0.77
116	BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	0.77
117	BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	0.74
118	ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	0.73
119	SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	0.73
120	ON	Halton	0.73
121	BC	Dewdney—Alouette	0.71
122	NB	Fredericton	0.71
123	ON	Oshawa	0.68
124	SK	Palliser	0.67
125	ON	Peterborough	0.67
126	ON	Sarnia—Lambton	0.67
127	ON	London West	0.53
128	BC	Newton—North Delta	0.52
129	NS	Kings—Hants	0.49
130	BC	Southern Interior	0.49
131	BC	Vancouver Island North	0.44
132	BC	North Vancouver	0.43
133	ON	Ajax—Pickering	0.43
134	ON	London North Centre	0.42
135	MB	Saint Boniface	0.41
136	ON	Hamilton Mountain	0.41
137	ON	Mississauga South	0.40
138	BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	0.39
139	ON	Oakville	0.39
140	ON	Kenora	0.39
141	PE	Malpeque	0.36
142	ON	Welland	0.35
143	NB	Miramichi	0.35
144	PQ	Beauce	0.34
145	ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	0.33
146	ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	0.33
147	MB	Winnipeg South	0.33
148	PE	Cardigan	0.33
149	ON	London—Fanshawe	0.32
150	ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	0.31
151	ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	0.31
152	ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	0.29
153	ON	Huron—Bruce	0.29
154	ON	Guelph	0.29
155	ON	Kitchener Centre	0.25
156	ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	0.25
157	ON	Thornhill	0.25
158	PQ	Portneuf	0.24
159	BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	0.23
160	ON	Brampton—Springdale	0.23
161	PE	Charlottetown	0.23
162	PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	0.22
163	MB	Winnipeg South Centre	0.21
164	BC	Richmond	0.18
165	ON	Mississauga—Erindale	0.16
166	NB	Beauséjour	0.12
167	PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	0.12
168	ON	Hamilton Centre	0.10
169	PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	0.10
170	PE	Egmont	0.10
171	ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	0.09
172	ON	Ottawa—Vanier	0.08
173	BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	0.08
174	PQ	Hull—Aylmer	0.07
175	PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	0.06
176	ON	Don Valley East	0.06
177	ON	Scarborough Southwest	0.06
178	NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	0.05
179	BC	Burnaby—Douglas	0.05
180	NL	Avalon	0.05
181	BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	0.05
182	ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	0.05
183	PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	0.04
184	ON	York Centre	0.04
185	PQ	Louis-Hébert	0.04
186	ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	0.03
187	ON	Sault Ste. Marie	0.03
188	ON	Sudbury	0.03
189	ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	0.03
190	ON	Kingston and the Islands	0.02
191	PQ	Outremont	0.02
192	ON	Etobicoke Centre	0.02
193	BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	0.02
194	ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	0.02
195	PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	0.01
196	ON	Don Valley West	0.01
197	PQ	Beauport	0.01
198	PQ	Gatineau	0.01
199	PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	0.01
200	ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	0.01
201	PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	0.01
202	NS	Halifax West	0.01
203	ON	Richmond Hill	0.01
204	PQ	Laval—Les Îles	0.01
205	NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	0.01
206	ON	Scarborough Centre	0.01
207	BC	Vancouver South	0.01
208	SK	Wascana	0.01
209	BC	Victoria	0.01
210	ON	Nickel Belt	0.01
308	NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	0.00
308	PQ	Charlesbourg	0.00
308	ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	0.00
308	ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	0.00
308	PQ	Compton—Stanstead	0.00
308	ON	Ottawa Centre	0.00
308	PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	0.00
308	NS	Cape Breton—Canso	0.00
308	PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	0.00
308	PQ	Papineau	0.00
308	PQ	Honoré-Mercier	0.00
308	PQ	LaSalle—Émard	0.00
308	PQ	Bourassa	0.00
308	PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	0.00
308	MB	Elmwood—Transcona	0.00
308	PQ	Ahuntsic	0.00
308	PQ	Drummond	0.00
308	NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	0.00
308	ON	Parkdale—High Park	0.00
308	ON	Willowdale	0.00
308	PQ	Québec	0.00
308	PQ	Shefford	0.00
308	ON	St. Paul's	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Quadra	0.00
308	ON	Vaughan	0.00
308	ON	Windsor West	0.00
308	PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	0.00
308	NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	0.00
308	YT	Yukon	0.00
308	PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	0.00
308	PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	0.00
308	ON	Timmins—James Bay	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Centre	0.00
308	NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	0.00
308	NS	Sydney—Victoria	0.00
308	PQ	Alfred-Pellan	0.00
308	PQ	Laval	0.00
308	PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Lambert	0.00
308	ON	Beaches—East York	0.00
308	ON	Markham—Unionville	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	0.00
308	MB	Churchill	0.00
308	NL	Labrador	0.00
308	NS	Halifax	0.00
308	NB	Acadie—Bathurst	0.00
308	PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	0.00
308	PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	0.00
308	PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	0.00
308	PQ	Chambly—Borduas	0.00
308	PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	0.00
308	PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	0.00
308	PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	0.00
308	PQ	Hochelaga	0.00
308	PQ	Joliette	0.00
308	PQ	Jonquière—Alma	0.00
308	PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	0.00
308	PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	0.00
308	PQ	Laurier	0.00
308	PQ	Longueuil	0.00
308	PQ	Manicouagan	0.00
308	PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	0.00
308	PQ	Matapédia—Matane	0.00
308	PQ	Montcalm	0.00
308	PQ	Mount Royal	0.00
308	PQ	Repentigny	0.00
308	PQ	Richelieu	0.00
308	PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	0.00
308	PQ	Roberval	0.00
308	PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Jean	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	0.00
308	PQ	Sherbrooke	0.00
308	PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	0.00
308	PQ	Trois-Rivières	0.00
308	PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	0.00
308	ON	Davenport	0.00
308	ON	Etobicoke North	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	0.00
308	ON	Toronto Centre	0.00
308	ON	Toronto—Danforth	0.00
308	ON	Trinity—Spadina	0.00
308	ON	York South—Weston	0.00
308	ON	York West	0.00
308	MB	Winnipeg Centre	0.00
308	MB	Winnipeg North	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver East	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Kingsway	0.00
308	NW	Western Arctic	0.00
308	NU	Nunavut	0.00