Canada - Conservative Seat Rankings
Here is a ranking of ridings based on the probability the conservatives will win it. All that are 100 % probability are #1, all with 0 % are #308, the rest are just ranked. So to win a majority, the most likely way is to win the first 155.
| 1 | NS | North Nova |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NB | St. Croix-Belleisle |
| 1 | ON | Carleton-Lanark |
| 1 | ON | Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington |
| 1 | ON | Leeds-Grenville |
| 1 | ON | Oxford |
| 1 | ON | Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke |
| 1 | MB | Brandon-Souris |
| 1 | MB | Dauphin-Swan River |
| 1 | MB | Portage-Lisgar |
| 1 | MB | Provencher |
| 1 | SK | Battlefords-Lloydminster |
| 1 | SK | Cypress Hills-Grasslands |
| 1 | SK | Saskatoon-Wanuskewin |
| 1 | SK | Yorkton-Melville |
| 1 | AB | Athabasca |
| 1 | AB | Calgary East |
| 1 | AB | Calgary North Centre |
| 1 | AB | Calgary Northeast |
| 1 | AB | Calgary-Nose Hill |
| 1 | AB | Calgary South Centre |
| 1 | AB | Calgary Southeast |
| 1 | AB | Calgary Southwest |
| 1 | AB | Calgary West |
| 1 | AB | Crowfoot |
| 1 | AB | Edmonton East |
| 1 | AB | Edmonton-Leduc |
| 1 | AB | Edmonton-St. Albert |
| 1 | AB | Edmonton-Sherwood Park |
| 1 | AB | Edmonton-Spruce Grove |
| 1 | AB | Lethbridge |
| 1 | AB | Macleod |
| 1 | AB | Medicine Hat |
| 1 | AB | Peace River |
| 1 | AB | Red Deer |
| 1 | AB | Vegreville-Wainwright |
| 1 | AB | Westlock-St. Paul |
| 1 | AB | Wetaskiwin |
| 1 | AB | Wild Rose |
| 1 | AB | Yellowhead |
| 1 | BC | Abbotsford |
| 1 | BC | Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon |
| 1 | BC | Kelowna |
| 1 | BC | Kootenay-Columbia |
| 1 | BC | Langley |
| 1 | BC | Okanagan-Coquihalla |
| 1 | BC | Prince George-Peace River |
| 48 | BC | Delta-Richmond East |
| 49 | NB | Fundy |
| 50 | ON | Elgin-Middlesex-London |
| 51 | SK | Prince Albert |
| 52 | ON | Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound |
| 53 | ON | Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock |
| 54 | ON | York-Simcoe |
| 55 | BC | North Okanagan-Shuswap |
| 56 | ON | Perth-Wellington |
| 57 | MB | Selkirk-Interlake |
| 58 | BC | Cariboo-Prince George |
| 59 | ON | Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry |
| 60 | SK | Blackstrap |
| 61 | SK | Churchill River |
| 62 | BC | South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale |
| 63 | ON | Nepean-Carleton |
| 64 | NL | St. John's North |
| 65 | ON | Prince Edward-Hastings |
| 66 | AB | Edmonton-Strathcona |
| 67 | NL | St. John's South |
| 68 | NS | Central Nova |
| 69 | ON | Wellington-Halton Hills |
| 70 | ON | Dufferin-Caledon |
| 71 | ON | Haldimand-Norfolk |
| 72 | BC | Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam |
| 73 | ON | Niagara Falls |
| 74 | BC | Kamloops-Thompson |
| 75 | ON | Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge |
| 76 | BC | West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast |
| 77 | MB | Charleswood-St. James |
| 78 | BC | Saanich-Gulf Islands |
| 79 | BC | Surrey North |
| 80 | SK | Souris-Moose Mountain |
| 81 | ON | Niagara West-Glanbrook |
| 82 | MB | Kildonan-St. Paul |
| 83 | ON | Newmarket-Aurora |
| 84 | ON | Cambridge |
| 85 | NS | South Shore-St. Margaret's |
| 86 | ON | Essex |
| 87 | ON | Simcoe-Grey |
| 88 | AB | Edmonton-Beaumont |
| 89 | ON | Middlesex-Kent-Lambton |
| 90 | ON | Northumberland-Quinte West |
| 91 | ON | Chatham-Kent-Essex |
| 92 | AB | Edmonton Centre |
| 93 | ON | Ottawa West-Nepean |
| 94 | ON | Barrie |
| 95 | SK | Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar |
| 96 | BC | Fleetwood-Port Kells |
| 97 | BC | North Vancouver |
| 98 | ON | Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale |
| 99 | ON | Brant |
| 100 | SK | Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre |
| 101 | ON | Ottawa-Orléans |
| 102 | ON | Nipissing-Timiskaming |
| 103 | BC | Nanaimo-Alberni |
| 104 | ON | St. Catharines |
| 105 | ON | Simcoe North |
| 106 | ON | Brampton West |
| 107 | BC | Dewdney-Alouette |
| 108 | NL | Bonavista-Exploits |
| 109 | ON | Burlington |
| 110 | ON | Kitchener-Conestoga |
| 111 | ON | Parry Sound-Muskoka |
| 112 | BC | Newton-North Delta |
| 113 | SK | Regina-Qu'Appelle |
| 114 | NB | Tobique-Mactaquac |
| 115 | ON | Ottawa South |
| 116 | ON | Whitby-Oshawa |
| 117 | NS | West Nova |
| 118 | BC | Richmond |
| 119 | NB | Saint John |
| 120 | SK | Saskatoon-Humboldt |
| 121 | ON | Glengarry-Prescott-Russell |
| 122 | ON | Halton |
| 123 | BC | Southern Interior |
| 124 | ON | Oshawa |
| 125 | BC | Vancouver Island North |
| 126 | PQ | Louis-Saint-Laurent |
| 127 | SK | Palliser |
| 128 | ON | Peterborough |
| 129 | BC | New Westminster-Coquitlam |
| 130 | ON | Sarnia-Lambton |
| 131 | NB | Fredericton |
| 132 | ON | London West |
| 133 | BC | Skeena-Bulkley Valley |
| 134 | MB | Saint Boniface |
| 135 | ON | Hamilton Mountain |
| 136 | ON | London North Centre |
| 137 | ON | Kenora |
| 138 | ON | Ajax-Pickering |
| 139 | PQ | Pontiac |
| 140 | NS | Kings-Hants |
| 141 | ON | Mississauga South |
| 142 | ON | Welland |
| 143 | ON | Oakville |
| 144 | ON | Thunder Bay-Rainy River |
| 145 | MB | Winnipeg South |
| 146 | ON | London-Fanshawe |
| 147 | BC | Burnaby-New Westminster |
| 148 | ON | Oak Ridges-Markham |
| 149 | ON | Mississauga-Streetsville |
| 150 | ON | Kitchener-Waterloo |
| 151 | ON | Guelph |
| 152 | ON | Bramalea-Gore-Malton |
| 153 | ON | Huron-Bruce |
| 154 | BC | Burnaby-Douglas |
| 155 | NB | Miramichi |
| 156 | BC | Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca |
| 157 | PE | Malpeque |
| 158 | ON | Kitchener Centre |
| 159 | MB | Winnipeg South Centre |
| 160 | ON | Thornhill |
| 161 | ON | Etobicoke-Lakeshore |
| 162 | PE | Cardigan |
| 163 | BC | Vancouver South |
| 164 | ON | Brampton-Springdale |
| 165 | PE | Charlottetown |
| 166 | ON | Mississauga-Erindale |
| 167 | BC | Nanaimo-Cowichan |
| 168 | BC | Victoria |
| 169 | NB | Madawaska-Restigouche |
| 170 | ON | Hamilton Centre |
| 171 | ON | Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing |
| 172 | NB | Beauséjour |
| 173 | ON | Ottawa-Vanier |
| 174 | PQ | Portneuf |
| 175 | PQ | Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière |
| 176 | BC | Vancouver Quadra |
| 177 | PE | Egmont |
| 178 | ON | Thunder Bay-Superior North |
| 179 | ON | Don Valley East |
| 180 | ON | Scarborough Southwest |
| 181 | YT | Yukon |
| 182 | ON | Hamilton East-Stoney Creek |
| 183 | NS | Dartmouth-Cole Harbour |
| 184 | ON | Sault Ste. Marie |
| 185 | ON | Sudbury |
| 186 | ON | York Centre |
| 187 | ON | Pickering-Scarborough East |
| 188 | NL | Avalon |
| 189 | BC | Vancouver Centre |
| 190 | ON | Kingston and the Islands |
| 191 | PQ | Lévis-Bellechasse |
| 192 | NS | Halifax West |
| 193 | ON | Etobicoke Centre |
| 194 | PQ | Beauce |
| 195 | ON | Mississauga East-Cooksville |
| 196 | ON | Don Valley West |
| 197 | SK | Wascana |
| 198 | ON | Mississauga-Brampton South |
| 199 | ON | Nickel Belt |
| 200 | ON | Richmond Hill |
| 201 | ON | Scarborough Centre |
| 202 | ON | Windsor-Tecumseh |
| 203 | NS | Cape Breton-Canso |
| 204 | ON | Ottawa Centre |
| 205 | ON | Scarborough-Guildwood |
| 206 | ON | Eglinton-Lawrence |
| 207 | NB | Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe |
| 208 | NL | Random-Burin-St. George's |
| 209 | NS | Sackville-Eastern Shore |
| 210 | PQ | Louis-Hébert |
| 211 | ON | Parkdale-High Park |
| 212 | MB | Elmwood-Transcona |
| 213 | BC | Vancouver Kingsway |
| 214 | NW | Western Arctic |
| 215 | PQ | Beauport |
| 216 | NU | Nunavut |
| 217 | ON | Willowdale |
| 218 | ON | St. Paul's |
| 219 | ON | Windsor West |
| 220 | ON | Vaughan |
| 221 | NL | Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte |
| 222 | PQ | Charlesbourg |
| 223 | NS | Sydney-Victoria |
| 224 | ON | Timmins-James Bay |
| 225 | PQ | Brome-Missisquoi |
| 226 | PQ | Hull-Aylmer |
| 227 | ON | Beaches-East York |
| 228 | NS | Halifax |
| 229 | PQ | Drummond |
| 230 | PQ | Mégantic-L'Érable |
| 231 | ON | Scarborough-Agincourt |
| 232 | PQ | Compton-Stanstead |
| 233 | PQ | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine |
| 234 | PQ | Québec |
| 235 | ON | Etobicoke North |
| 236 | ON | Markham-Unionville |
| 237 | ON | Scarborough-Rouge River |
| 238 | ON | Toronto Centre |
| 239 | MB | Churchill |
| 308 | NL | Labrador |
| 308 | NB | Acadie-Bathurst |
| 308 | PQ | Abitibi-Témiscamingue |
| 308 | PQ | Ahuntsic |
| 308 | PQ | Alfred-Pellan |
| 308 | PQ | Argenteuil-Mirabel |
| 308 | PQ | Beauharnois-Salaberry |
| 308 | PQ | Berthier-Maskinongé |
| 308 | PQ | Bourassa |
| 308 | PQ | Brossard-La Prairie |
| 308 | PQ | Chambly-Borduas |
| 308 | PQ | Charlevoix-Montmorency |
| 308 | PQ | Châteauguay-Saint-Constant |
| 308 | PQ | Chicoutimi-Le Fjord |
| 308 | PQ | Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine |
| 308 | PQ | Gatineau |
| 308 | PQ | Hochelaga |
| 308 | PQ | Honoré-Mercier |
| 308 | PQ | Jeanne-Le Ber |
| 308 | PQ | Joliette |
| 308 | PQ | Jonquière-Alma |
| 308 | PQ | Lac-Saint-Louis |
| 308 | PQ | La Pointe-de-l'Île |
| 308 | PQ | LaSalle-Émard |
| 308 | PQ | Laurentides-Labelle |
| 308 | PQ | Laurier |
| 308 | PQ | Laval |
| 308 | PQ | Laval-Les Îles |
| 308 | PQ | Longueuil |
| 308 | PQ | Manicouagan |
| 308 | PQ | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin |
| 308 | PQ | Matapédia-Matane |
| 308 | PQ | Montcalm |
| 308 | PQ | Mount Royal |
| 308 | PQ | Nunavik-Eeyou |
| 308 | PQ | Outremont |
| 308 | PQ | Papineau |
| 308 | PQ | Pierrefonds-Dollard |
| 308 | PQ | Repentigny |
| 308 | PQ | Richelieu |
| 308 | PQ | Richmond-Arthabaska |
| 308 | PQ | Rimouski-Témiscouata |
| 308 | PQ | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles |
| 308 | PQ | Rivière-du-Loup-Montmagny |
| 308 | PQ | Rivière-du-Nord |
| 308 | PQ | Roberval |
| 308 | PQ | Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Jean |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Lambert |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Laurent-Cartierville |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel |
| 308 | PQ | Saint-Maurice-Champlain |
| 308 | PQ | Shefford |
| 308 | PQ | Sherbrooke |
| 308 | PQ | Terrebonne-Blainville |
| 308 | PQ | Trois-Rivières |
| 308 | PQ | Vaudreuil-Soulanges |
| 308 | PQ | Verchères-Les Patriotes |
| 308 | PQ | Westmount-Ville-Marie |
| 308 | ON | Davenport |
| 308 | ON | Toronto-Danforth |
| 308 | ON | Trinity-Spadina |
| 308 | ON | York South-Weston |
| 308 | ON | York West |
| 308 | MB | Winnipeg Centre |
| 308 | MB | Winnipeg North |
| 308 | BC | Vancouver East |
1 comment:
My numbers have Toronto Centre at a 0.01 % chance (so 1 in 10000) of going conservative. That is the cutoff I use. I think I will change the cutoff to 0.5 % in the next post, that seems low enough.
Post a Comment