Canada - January 11, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 10:
Con: 38.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 148 Lib: 75 Ndp: 24 Blc: 61
Con: 147.4 Lib: 75.0 Ndp: 25.5 Blc: 60.1

SES Jan. 10:
Con: 39.0 Lib: 30.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 144 Lib: 83 Ndp: 21 Blc: 60
Con: 145.8 Lib: 80.6 Ndp: 23.1 Blc: 58.5

SES Regional Jan. 10:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	34.0	38.0	24.0	0.0
PQ	21.0	18.0	8.0	50.0
ON	44.0	37.0	15.0	0.0
West	47.0	29.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	10	19	3	0	10.1	18.3	3.6	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	8	0	65	1.8	8.7	0.0	64.5	0	21	0	54
ON	66	34	6	0	62.7	36.5	6.8	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	68	20	7	0	65.2	20.9	8.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	146	81	16	65	139.8	84.4	19.3	64.5	99	135	19	54

Ekos Jan. 10:
Con: 37.1 Lib: 29.9 Ndp: 17.6 Blc: 11.6
Con: 137 Lib: 86 Ndp: 27 Blc: 58
Con: 137.5 Lib: 85.2 Ndp: 27.8 Blc: 57.5

Average Jan. 10:
Con: 38.0 Lib: 29.3 Ndp: 16.5 Blc: 11.9
Con: 143 Lib: 81 Ndp: 24 Blc: 60
Con: 143.6 Lib: 80.3 Ndp: 25.4 Blc: 58.7

Canada - January 10, 2005

Ekos Jan. 9
Con: 39.1 Lib: 26.8 Ndp: 16.2 Blc: 12.6
Con: 158 Lib: 61 Ndp: 25 Blc: 64
Con: 154.2 Lib: 65.8 Ndp: 25.6 Blc: 62.4

SES Jan. 9
Con: 35.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 129 Lib: 91 Ndp: 25 Blc: 63
Con: 127.0 Lib: 92.0 Ndp: 27.6 Blc: 61.3

SES Regional Jan. 9

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	27.0	49.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	16.0	18.0	53.0	0.0
ON	42.0	38.0	17.0	0.0
West	43.0	29.0	22.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	4	26	2	0	4.5	25.3	2.2	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	1	74	0	0.0	1.7	73.2	0.0	0	21	0	54
ON	54	43	9	0	56.1	41.4	8.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	58	23	14	0	58.0	22.7	14.2	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	116	93	99	0	118.6	91.1	98.1	0.0	99	135	19	54

Canada - January 9, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 8
Con: 37.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 140 Lib: 82 Ndp: 21 Blc: 65
Con: 141.5 Lib: 80.1 Ndp: 23.9 Blc: 62.4

Decima Jan. 8
Con: 36.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 20.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 135 Lib: 78 Ndp: 37 Blc: 58
Con: 138.2 Lib: 75.8 Ndp: 36.3 Blc: 57.7

SES Jan. 8
Con: 34.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 126 Lib: 102 Ndp: 27 Blc: 53
Con: 124.0 Lib: 100.5 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 54.9

SES Regional Jan. 8

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	24.0	52.0	20.0	0.0
PQ	17.0	21.0	8.0	48.0
ON	39.0	38.0	20.0	0.0
West	45.0	27.0	20.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.0	27.1	1.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	9	0	64	1.3	10.6	0.0	63.1	0	21	0	54
ON	50	45	11	0	48.7	45.3	12.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	67	18	10	0	63.6	19.4	11.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	122	99	23	64	116.7	102.4	25.8	63.1	99	135	19	54

Average Dec. 8:
Con: 35.7 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 17.3 Blc: 11.7
Con: 135 Lib: 85 Ndp: 29 Blc: 58
Con: 133.7 Lib: 85.2 Ndp: 29.5 Blc: 58.5

Canada - January 8, 2006

SES Dec. 7
Con: 35.0 Lib: 32.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 127 Lib: 104 Ndp: 25 Blc: 51
Con: 124.5 Lib: 105.4 Ndp: 26.6 Blc: 50.5

SES Regional Dec. 7

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	30.0	47.0	17.0	0.0
PQ	18.0	26.0	9.0	44.0
ON	37.0	38.0	20.0	0.0
West	47.0	26.0	20.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	5.8	24.2	2.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	15	0	58	1.8	16.6	0.0	56.6	0	21	0	54
ON	45	47	14	0	44.7	48.6	12.7	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	71	14	10	0	67.0	16.7	11.3	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	125	99	26	58	119.3	106.1	26.0	56.6	99	135	19	54

Ipsos Dec. 7
Con: 35.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.4
Con: 128 Lib: 95 Ndp: 29 Blc: 56
Con: 126.5 Lib: 95.7 Ndp: 29.6 Blc: 56.1

Ipsos says their seat projection model gives:
Con 129-133 Lib: 87-91 NDP: 27-31 Blc: 56-60
Since they have regional spilts, and didn't publish them, it is probable their model is better than mine. The results are relatively similar, except they flip about 4-5 liberal seats to the conservatives.

Ekos Dec. 5
Con: 36.0 Lib: 30.8 Ndp: 17.5 Blc: 10.6
Con: 134 Lib: 97 Ndp: 24 Blc: 53
Con: 131.6 Lib: 95.2 Ndp: 27.8 Blc: 53.4

Canada - January 7, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 6
Con: 33.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 120 Lib: 98 Ndp: 27 Blc: 63
Con: 119.9 Lib: 97.1 Ndp: 29.5 Blc: 61.4

SES Jan. 6
Con: 34.0 Lib: 33.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 120 Lib: 109 Ndp: 27 Blc: 52
Con: 118.9 Lib: 109.4 Ndp: 26.4 Blc: 53.3

SES Jan. 6 Regional:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	35.0	45.0	16.0	0.0
PQ	15.0	27.0	7.0	48.0
ON	33.0	41.0	19.0	0.0
West	49.0	25.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	7.9	22.0	2.1	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.8	14.6	0.0	59.6	0	21	0	54
ON	31	64	11	0	31.9	63.2	10.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	72	13	10	0	69.4	14.0	11.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	110	113	23	62	109.9	113.7	24.6	59.6	99	135	19	54

General Comments

I haven't posted in a few days. I will start again once the January polls start coming. Before Christmas the average spread tended to be about 6 points.

I haven't explained the format in a while, so here it is. Most of the time, I will post three lines for each poll. First is the raw poll results. Second is a seat projection. Third is a seat projection that incorporates the statistical probability of each party winning each seat. For regional polls the format is quite a bit different. First will be a table with the raw poll results. Next will be another table. It will first have the seat projection, then the projection with probability, then the results from the last election.

The reason for the two different projection methods is that doing the simple projection can lead to one party getting a disproportionate amount of the close seats (I'll call it the lucky effect). Since it is a projection it has variance, and the polls themselves have error margins, so incorporating probability will minimize the lucky effect. Of course, real elections have lucky effects (last election the Conservatives benefitted by five seats and the NDP paid the price), but to try to guess at this effect is a random shot.

Three weeks to go, welcome aboard.