Canada - On the Lucky Effect

In some election, one side wins a disproportionate amount of the close seats. I refer to this as the "lucky effect". It was first described here: http://electionpolls.blogspot.com/2006/01/general-comments.html.

The lucky effect is quantified as the difference being the actual seats won and the seats predicted using probability using the actual results. If a seat was won by one vote, the probabilities would be about 50-50. Based on my current models, a 10 point win in a two party race is around 87 %, a 20 point win is around 96 %, and a 30 point spread is getting close to 100 %. The regional results have higher probabilities for these spreads, since the standard deviation in the projection is lower. Anyway, here are the numbers:

2006:
Actual: Con: 124 Lib: 103 Ndp: 29 Blc: 51
Probability: Con: 122.4 Lib: 103.2 Ndp: 30.0 Blc: 51.5

2004:
Actual: Con: 99 Lib: 135 Ndp: 19 Blc: 54
Probability: Con: 93.7 Lib: 134.9 Ndp: 23.0 Blc: 55.4

In 2004 the Conservatives benifitted by the lucky effect a lot, and the NDP was hurt. In this election, the effect was much smaller. In both cases, the liberal totals were about even with probability, while the Conservatives were higher and NDP and BQ lower.

Micky

Canada - On the Reliability of Projections

2006 National Projected from 2004:
Con: 36.3 Lib: 30.3 Ndp: 17.4 Blc: 10.5
Con: 134 Lib: 93 Ndp: 27 Blc: 53
Con: 133.0 Lib: 92.6 Ndp: 28.0 Blc: 53.4

2006 Regional Projected from 2004:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	34.5	39.9	22.7	0.0
PQ	24.6	20.7	7.5	42.1
ON	35.1	39.9	19.5	0.0
MB/SK	45.7	24.3	24.7	0.0
AB	64.9	15.4	11.6	0.0
BC	37.3	27.9	28.3	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	8	21	3	0	9.5	19.3	3.1	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	12	0	58	4.9	13.2	0.0	57.0	0	21	0	54
ON	39	56	11	0	37.6	56.8	11.6	0.0	24	75	7	0
MB/SK	20	4	4	0	19.7	3.6	4.7	0.0	20	4	4	0
AB	28	0	0	0	27.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	26	2	0	0
BC	21	10	7	0	19.9	9.7	8.4	0.0	22	11	5	0
All	121	103	25	58	119.4	102.7	27.9	57.0	99	135	19	54

Actual:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	9	20	3	0.0
PQ	10	13	0	51
ON	40	54	12	0.0
MB/SK	20	5	3	0
AB	28	0	0	0
BC	17	10	9	0
All	124	103	29	51

Clearly, the national projection wasn't very accurate. It was off by 10 seats. The regional projection was better nationally, although it had big problems in PQ and some problems and BC. It got the liberal seat count right on, while the national model was not close. I will get into the "lucky effect" in the next post.

Canada - More Conservative Seat Rankings

The last set of seat rankings was based on national numbers. After a question from one of the two top pundits in the country, I have rethought things and think regional numbers would be better. I have also changes the cutoff to 0.5 %, rather than 0.01 % as before. Like before, all that are 100 % probability are #1, all with 0 % are #308, the rest are just ranked. So to win a majority, the most likely way is to win the first 155.

1	NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	1.00
1	ON	Carleton—Lanark	1.00
1	ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	1.00
1	ON	Leeds—Grenville	1.00
1	ON	Oxford	1.00
1	ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	1.00
1	MB	Brandon—Souris	1.00
1	MB	Dauphin—Swan River	1.00
1	MB	Portage—Lisgar	1.00
1	MB	Provencher	1.00
1	SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	1.00
1	SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	1.00
1	SK	Yorkton—Melville	1.00
1	AB	Athabasca	1.00
1	AB	Calgary East	1.00
1	AB	Calgary North Centre	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Northeast	1.00
1	AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	1.00
1	AB	Calgary South Centre	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Southeast	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Southwest	1.00
1	AB	Calgary West	1.00
1	AB	Crowfoot	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Leduc	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	1.00
1	AB	Lethbridge	1.00
1	AB	Macleod	1.00
1	AB	Medicine Hat	1.00
1	AB	Peace River	1.00
1	AB	Red Deer	1.00
1	AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	1.00
1	AB	Westlock—St. Paul	1.00
1	AB	Wetaskiwin	1.00
1	AB	Wild Rose	1.00
1	AB	Yellowhead	1.00
1	BC	Abbotsford	1.00
1	BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	1.00
1	BC	Prince George—Peace River	1.00
1	SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton East	1.00
1	BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	1.00
1	NS	North Nova	1.00
1	BC	Kootenay—Columbia	1.00
1	BC	Langley	1.00
1	ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	1.00
1	SK	Prince Albert	1.00
1	NB	Fundy	1.00
1	ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	1.00
1	ON	York—Simcoe	1.00
1	ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	1.00
1	BC	Kelowna	1.00
1	ON	Perth—Wellington	1.00
1	MB	Selkirk—Interlake	1.00
1	ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	1.00
1	SK	Blackstrap	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	1.00
1	SK	Churchill River	1.00
1	ON	Nepean—Carleton	1.00
1	BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	1.00
1	ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	1.00
63	BC	Cariboo—Prince George	0.99
64	ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	0.99
65	ON	Dufferin—Caledon	0.99
66	ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	0.99
67	NL	St. John's North	0.99
68	SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	0.99
69	ON	Niagara Falls	0.99
70	BC	Surrey North	0.99
71	ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	0.99
72	ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	0.98
73	ON	Newmarket—Aurora	0.98
74	ON	Cambridge	0.98
75	MB	Charleswood—St. James	0.98
76	MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	0.98
77	ON	Essex	0.98
78	ON	Simcoe—Grey	0.98
79	BC	Delta—Richmond East	0.97
80	ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	0.97
81	ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	0.97
82	ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	0.97
83	AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	0.97
84	BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	0.96
85	AB	Edmonton Centre	0.96
86	BC	Kamloops—Thompson	0.95
87	ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	0.95
88	ON	Barrie	0.95
89	SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	0.94
90	NL	St. John's South	0.94
91	NS	Central Nova	0.93
92	ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	0.92
93	ON	Brant	0.92
94	BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	0.91
95	ON	Ottawa—Orléans	0.91
96	NL	Bonavista—Exploits	0.91
97	SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	0.91
98	ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	0.90
99	ON	St. Catharines	0.89
100	PQ	Pontiac	0.89
101	ON	Simcoe North	0.89
102	ON	Brampton West	0.89
103	PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	0.88
104	NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	0.86
105	BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	0.86
106	ON	Burlington	0.86
107	ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	0.85
108	NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	0.85
109	NB	Saint John	0.83
110	ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	0.82
111	NS	West Nova	0.80
112	BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	0.80
113	SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	0.80
114	ON	Ottawa South	0.77
115	ON	Whitby—Oshawa	0.77
116	BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	0.77
117	BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	0.74
118	ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	0.73
119	SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	0.73
120	ON	Halton	0.73
121	BC	Dewdney—Alouette	0.71
122	NB	Fredericton	0.71
123	ON	Oshawa	0.68
124	SK	Palliser	0.67
125	ON	Peterborough	0.67
126	ON	Sarnia—Lambton	0.67
127	ON	London West	0.53
128	BC	Newton—North Delta	0.52
129	NS	Kings—Hants	0.49
130	BC	Southern Interior	0.49
131	BC	Vancouver Island North	0.44
132	BC	North Vancouver	0.43
133	ON	Ajax—Pickering	0.43
134	ON	London North Centre	0.42
135	MB	Saint Boniface	0.41
136	ON	Hamilton Mountain	0.41
137	ON	Mississauga South	0.40
138	BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	0.39
139	ON	Oakville	0.39
140	ON	Kenora	0.39
141	PE	Malpeque	0.36
142	ON	Welland	0.35
143	NB	Miramichi	0.35
144	PQ	Beauce	0.34
145	ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	0.33
146	ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	0.33
147	MB	Winnipeg South	0.33
148	PE	Cardigan	0.33
149	ON	London—Fanshawe	0.32
150	ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	0.31
151	ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	0.31
152	ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	0.29
153	ON	Huron—Bruce	0.29
154	ON	Guelph	0.29
155	ON	Kitchener Centre	0.25
156	ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	0.25
157	ON	Thornhill	0.25
158	PQ	Portneuf	0.24
159	BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	0.23
160	ON	Brampton—Springdale	0.23
161	PE	Charlottetown	0.23
162	PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	0.22
163	MB	Winnipeg South Centre	0.21
164	BC	Richmond	0.18
165	ON	Mississauga—Erindale	0.16
166	NB	Beauséjour	0.12
167	PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	0.12
168	ON	Hamilton Centre	0.10
169	PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	0.10
170	PE	Egmont	0.10
171	ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	0.09
172	ON	Ottawa—Vanier	0.08
173	BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	0.08
174	PQ	Hull—Aylmer	0.07
175	PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	0.06
176	ON	Don Valley East	0.06
177	ON	Scarborough Southwest	0.06
178	NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	0.05
179	BC	Burnaby—Douglas	0.05
180	NL	Avalon	0.05
181	BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	0.05
182	ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	0.05
183	PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	0.04
184	ON	York Centre	0.04
185	PQ	Louis-Hébert	0.04
186	ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	0.03
187	ON	Sault Ste. Marie	0.03
188	ON	Sudbury	0.03
189	ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	0.03
190	ON	Kingston and the Islands	0.02
191	PQ	Outremont	0.02
192	ON	Etobicoke Centre	0.02
193	BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	0.02
194	ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	0.02
195	PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	0.01
196	ON	Don Valley West	0.01
197	PQ	Beauport	0.01
198	PQ	Gatineau	0.01
199	PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	0.01
200	ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	0.01
201	PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	0.01
202	NS	Halifax West	0.01
203	ON	Richmond Hill	0.01
204	PQ	Laval—Les Îles	0.01
205	NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	0.01
206	ON	Scarborough Centre	0.01
207	BC	Vancouver South	0.01
208	SK	Wascana	0.01
209	BC	Victoria	0.01
210	ON	Nickel Belt	0.01
308	NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	0.00
308	PQ	Charlesbourg	0.00
308	ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	0.00
308	ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	0.00
308	PQ	Compton—Stanstead	0.00
308	ON	Ottawa Centre	0.00
308	PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	0.00
308	NS	Cape Breton—Canso	0.00
308	PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	0.00
308	PQ	Papineau	0.00
308	PQ	Honoré-Mercier	0.00
308	PQ	LaSalle—Émard	0.00
308	PQ	Bourassa	0.00
308	PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	0.00
308	MB	Elmwood—Transcona	0.00
308	PQ	Ahuntsic	0.00
308	PQ	Drummond	0.00
308	NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	0.00
308	ON	Parkdale—High Park	0.00
308	ON	Willowdale	0.00
308	PQ	Québec	0.00
308	PQ	Shefford	0.00
308	ON	St. Paul's	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Quadra	0.00
308	ON	Vaughan	0.00
308	ON	Windsor West	0.00
308	PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	0.00
308	NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	0.00
308	YT	Yukon	0.00
308	PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	0.00
308	PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	0.00
308	ON	Timmins—James Bay	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Centre	0.00
308	NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	0.00
308	NS	Sydney—Victoria	0.00
308	PQ	Alfred-Pellan	0.00
308	PQ	Laval	0.00
308	PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Lambert	0.00
308	ON	Beaches—East York	0.00
308	ON	Markham—Unionville	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	0.00
308	MB	Churchill	0.00
308	NL	Labrador	0.00
308	NS	Halifax	0.00
308	NB	Acadie—Bathurst	0.00
308	PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	0.00
308	PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	0.00
308	PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	0.00
308	PQ	Chambly—Borduas	0.00
308	PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	0.00
308	PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	0.00
308	PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	0.00
308	PQ	Hochelaga	0.00
308	PQ	Joliette	0.00
308	PQ	Jonquière—Alma	0.00
308	PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	0.00
308	PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	0.00
308	PQ	Laurier	0.00
308	PQ	Longueuil	0.00
308	PQ	Manicouagan	0.00
308	PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	0.00
308	PQ	Matapédia—Matane	0.00
308	PQ	Montcalm	0.00
308	PQ	Mount Royal	0.00
308	PQ	Repentigny	0.00
308	PQ	Richelieu	0.00
308	PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	0.00
308	PQ	Roberval	0.00
308	PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Jean	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	0.00
308	PQ	Sherbrooke	0.00
308	PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	0.00
308	PQ	Trois-Rivières	0.00
308	PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	0.00
308	ON	Davenport	0.00
308	ON	Etobicoke North	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	0.00
308	ON	Toronto Centre	0.00
308	ON	Toronto—Danforth	0.00
308	ON	Trinity—Spadina	0.00
308	ON	York South—Weston	0.00
308	ON	York West	0.00
308	MB	Winnipeg Centre	0.00
308	MB	Winnipeg North	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver East	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Kingsway	0.00
308	NW	Western Arctic	0.00
308	NU	Nunavut	0.00

Canada - More Seat Probabilities

Here are seat probabilities based on the regional numbers in the last Ipsos poll. The Ipsos numbers make sense to me. Like before, A probability of 1 means a 100 % chance of victory, 0.50 means 50 %, and so on.

Province	Riding	Winner	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
NL	Avalon	L	0.05	0.95	0.00	0.00
NL	Bonavista—Exploits	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Labrador	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	N	0.00	0.15	0.85	0.00
NL	St. John's North	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
NL	St. John's South	C	0.94	0.00	0.06	0.00
PE	Cardigan	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
PE	Charlottetown	L	0.23	0.74	0.03	0.00
PE	Egmont	L	0.10	0.90	0.00	0.00
PE	Malpeque	L	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00
NS	Cape Breton—Canso	L	0.00	0.86	0.13	0.00
NS	Central Nova	C	0.93	0.00	0.07	0.00
NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	N	0.01	0.05	0.95	0.00
NS	Halifax	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NS	Halifax West	N	0.01	0.40	0.59	0.00
NS	Kings—Hants	C	0.49	0.48	0.03	0.00
NS	North Nova	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	C	0.85	0.00	0.15	0.00
NS	Sydney—Victoria	L	0.00	0.67	0.33	0.00
NS	West Nova	C	0.80	0.10	0.09	0.00
NB	Acadie—Bathurst	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NB	Beauséjour	L	0.12	0.88	0.00	0.00
NB	Fredericton	C	0.71	0.28	0.01	0.00
NB	Fundy	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	N	0.05	0.25	0.70	0.00
NB	Miramichi	L	0.35	0.62	0.03	0.00
NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Saint John	C	0.83	0.13	0.04	0.00
NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Ahuntsic	B	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.99
PQ	Alfred-Pellan	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauce	B	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.66
PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauport	B	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Bourassa	B	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.83
PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	B	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.96
PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	B	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.98
PQ	Chambly—Borduas	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlesbourg	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Compton—Stanstead	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Drummond	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gatineau	B	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Hochelaga	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Honoré-Mercier	B	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.97
PQ	Hull—Aylmer	B	0.07	0.03	0.00	0.89
PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Joliette	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Jonquière—Alma	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	LaSalle—Émard	L	0.00	0.83	0.00	0.16
PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laurier	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laval	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laval—Les Îles	B	0.01	0.11	0.00	0.89
PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	B	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.88
PQ	Longueuil	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	B	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.78
PQ	Louis-Hébert	B	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.96
PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	C	0.88	0.00	0.00	0.12
PQ	Manicouagan	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Matapédia—Matane	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	B	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Montcalm	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mount Royal	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	L	0.10	0.88	0.00	0.01
PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Outremont	B	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.94
PQ	Papineau	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
PQ	Pontiac	C	0.89	0.00	0.00	0.11
PQ	Portneuf	B	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.76
PQ	Québec	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Repentigny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richelieu	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Roberval	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Jean	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Lambert	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Shefford	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Sherbrooke	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Trois-Rivières	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	L	0.06	0.93	0.00	0.00
ON	Ajax—Pickering	L	0.43	0.57	0.00	0.00
ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	N	0.09	0.27	0.64	0.00
ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	C	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.00
ON	Barrie	C	0.95	0.05	0.00	0.00
ON	Beaches—East York	L	0.00	0.67	0.33	0.00
ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton—Springdale	L	0.23	0.77	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton West	C	0.89	0.11	0.00	0.00
ON	Brant	C	0.92	0.07	0.01	0.00
ON	Burlington	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
ON	Cambridge	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Carleton—Lanark	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Davenport	L	0.00	0.72	0.28	0.00
ON	Don Valley East	L	0.06	0.94	0.00	0.00
ON	Don Valley West	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Dufferin—Caledon	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Essex	C	0.98	0.01	0.02	0.00
ON	Etobicoke Centre	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	L	0.25	0.75	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke North	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	C	0.73	0.27	0.00	0.00
ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Guelph	L	0.29	0.70	0.01	0.00
ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Halton	C	0.73	0.27	0.00	0.00
ON	Hamilton Centre	N	0.10	0.00	0.90	0.00
ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	N	0.03	0.05	0.92	0.00
ON	Hamilton Mountain	N	0.41	0.01	0.59	0.00
ON	Huron—Bruce	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
ON	Kenora	N	0.39	0.02	0.59	0.00
ON	Kingston and the Islands	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener Centre	L	0.25	0.75	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	C	0.85	0.15	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	L	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.00
ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Leeds—Grenville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	London—Fanshawe	N	0.32	0.12	0.56	0.00
ON	London North Centre	L	0.42	0.52	0.05	0.00
ON	London West	C	0.53	0.46	0.00	0.00
ON	Markham—Unionville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Erindale	L	0.16	0.84	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga South	L	0.40	0.60	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	L	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.00
ON	Nepean—Carleton	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Newmarket—Aurora	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara Falls	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Nickel Belt	N	0.01	0.26	0.74	0.00
ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	C	0.90	0.10	0.00	0.00
ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
ON	Oakville	L	0.39	0.61	0.00	0.00
ON	Oshawa	C	0.68	0.00	0.32	0.00
ON	Ottawa Centre	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Orléans	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa South	C	0.77	0.23	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Vanier	L	0.08	0.92	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	C	0.95	0.05	0.00	0.00
ON	Oxford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Parkdale—High Park	N	0.00	0.26	0.74	0.00
ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	C	0.82	0.18	0.00	0.00
ON	Perth—Wellington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Peterborough	C	0.67	0.33	0.00	0.00
ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	L	0.03	0.97	0.00	0.00
ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Richmond Hill	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Catharines	C	0.89	0.10	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Paul's	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sarnia—Lambton	C	0.67	0.33	0.00	0.00
ON	Sault Ste. Marie	N	0.03	0.01	0.95	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Centre	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Southwest	L	0.06	0.94	0.01	0.00
ON	Simcoe—Grey	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Simcoe North	C	0.89	0.11	0.00	0.00
ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sudbury	L	0.03	0.60	0.37	0.00
ON	Thornhill	L	0.25	0.75	0.00	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	N	0.33	0.19	0.47	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	L	0.05	0.56	0.40	0.00
ON	Timmins—James Bay	N	0.00	0.03	0.97	0.00
ON	Toronto Centre	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Toronto—Danforth	N	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00
ON	Trinity—Spadina	N	0.00	0.07	0.93	0.00
ON	Vaughan	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Welland	N	0.35	0.21	0.44	0.00
ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Whitby—Oshawa	C	0.77	0.23	0.00	0.00
ON	Willowdale	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	N	0.00	0.00	0.99	0.00
ON	Windsor West	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
ON	York Centre	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
ON	York—Simcoe	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York South—Weston	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York West	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Brandon—Souris	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Charleswood—St. James	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
MB	Churchill	N	0.00	0.02	0.98	0.00
MB	Dauphin—Swan River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Elmwood—Transcona	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
MB	Portage—Lisgar	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Provencher	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Saint Boniface	L	0.41	0.59	0.00	0.00
MB	Selkirk—Interlake	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg Centre	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg North	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South Centre	L	0.21	0.78	0.00	0.00
SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Blackstrap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Churchill River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Palliser	C	0.67	0.00	0.33	0.00
SK	Prince Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	C	0.91	0.01	0.08	0.00
SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	C	0.80	0.00	0.20	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	C	0.73	0.00	0.27	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	C	0.94	0.00	0.06	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	C	0.99	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Wascana	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
SK	Yorkton—Melville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Athabasca	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary North Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Northeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary South Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southwest	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary West	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Crowfoot	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton Centre	C	0.96	0.04	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Leduc	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Lethbridge	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Macleod	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Medicine Hat	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Red Deer	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Westlock—St. Paul	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wetaskiwin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wild Rose	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Yellowhead	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Abbotsford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Burnaby—Douglas	N	0.05	0.16	0.79	0.00
BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	N	0.08	0.19	0.74	0.00
BC	Cariboo—Prince George	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Delta—Richmond East	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
BC	Dewdney—Alouette	C	0.71	0.00	0.29	0.00
BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	L	0.02	0.53	0.45	0.00
BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	C	0.80	0.06	0.15	0.00
BC	Kamloops—Thompson	C	0.95	0.01	0.03	0.00
BC	Kelowna	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Kootenay—Columbia	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Langley	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	C	0.74	0.00	0.26	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	N	0.05	0.00	0.95	0.00
BC	Newton—North Delta	C	0.52	0.17	0.30	0.00
BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	N	0.39	0.02	0.59	0.00
BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	North Vancouver	L	0.43	0.57	0.00	0.00
BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	C	0.96	0.01	0.03	0.00
BC	Prince George—Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Richmond	L	0.18	0.82	0.00	0.00
BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	C	0.91	0.05	0.03	0.00
BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	N	0.23	0.00	0.77	0.00
BC	Southern Interior	N	0.49	0.00	0.51	0.00
BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
BC	Surrey North	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Vancouver Centre	L	0.00	0.71	0.29	0.00
BC	Vancouver East	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver Island North	N	0.44	0.00	0.56	0.00
BC	Vancouver Kingsway	N	0.00	0.45	0.55	0.00
BC	Vancouver Quadra	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver South	L	0.01	0.98	0.01	0.00
BC	Victoria	N	0.01	0.49	0.50	0.00
BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	C	0.77	0.22	0.01	0.00
YT	Yukon	L	0.00	0.99	0.01	0.00
NW	Western Arctic	N	0.00	0.32	0.68	0.00
NU	Nunavut	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Total		133.7	73.7	36.8	63.9

Canada - Conservative Seat Rankings

Here is a ranking of ridings based on the probability the conservatives will win it. All that are 100 % probability are #1, all with 0 % are #308, the rest are just ranked. So to win a majority, the most likely way is to win the first 155.

1	NS	North Nova
1	NB	St. Croix-Belleisle
1	ON	Carleton-Lanark
1	ON	Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
1	ON	Leeds-Grenville
1	ON	Oxford
1	ON	Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
1	MB	Brandon-Souris
1	MB	Dauphin-Swan River
1	MB	Portage-Lisgar
1	MB	Provencher
1	SK	Battlefords-Lloydminster
1	SK	Cypress Hills-Grasslands
1	SK	Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
1	SK	Yorkton-Melville
1	AB	Athabasca
1	AB	Calgary East
1	AB	Calgary North Centre
1	AB	Calgary Northeast
1	AB	Calgary-Nose Hill
1	AB	Calgary South Centre
1	AB	Calgary Southeast
1	AB	Calgary Southwest
1	AB	Calgary West
1	AB	Crowfoot
1	AB	Edmonton East
1	AB	Edmonton-Leduc
1	AB	Edmonton-St. Albert
1	AB	Edmonton-Sherwood Park
1	AB	Edmonton-Spruce Grove
1	AB	Lethbridge
1	AB	Macleod
1	AB	Medicine Hat
1	AB	Peace River
1	AB	Red Deer
1	AB	Vegreville-Wainwright
1	AB	Westlock-St. Paul
1	AB	Wetaskiwin
1	AB	Wild Rose
1	AB	Yellowhead
1	BC	Abbotsford
1	BC	Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
1	BC	Kelowna
1	BC	Kootenay-Columbia
1	BC	Langley
1	BC	Okanagan-Coquihalla
1	BC	Prince George-Peace River
48	BC	Delta-Richmond East
49	NB	Fundy
50	ON	Elgin-Middlesex-London
51	SK	Prince Albert
52	ON	Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound
53	ON	Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
54	ON	York-Simcoe
55	BC	North Okanagan-Shuswap
56	ON	Perth-Wellington
57	MB	Selkirk-Interlake
58	BC	Cariboo-Prince George
59	ON	Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
60	SK	Blackstrap
61	SK	Churchill River
62	BC	South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
63	ON	Nepean-Carleton
64	NL	St. John's North
65	ON	Prince Edward-Hastings
66	AB	Edmonton-Strathcona
67	NL	St. John's South
68	NS	Central Nova
69	ON	Wellington-Halton Hills
70	ON	Dufferin-Caledon
71	ON	Haldimand-Norfolk
72	BC	Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
73	ON	Niagara Falls
74	BC	Kamloops-Thompson
75	ON	Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge
76	BC	West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
77	MB	Charleswood-St. James
78	BC	Saanich-Gulf Islands
79	BC	Surrey North
80	SK	Souris-Moose Mountain
81	ON	Niagara West-Glanbrook
82	MB	Kildonan-St. Paul
83	ON	Newmarket-Aurora
84	ON	Cambridge
85	NS	South Shore-St. Margaret's
86	ON	Essex
87	ON	Simcoe-Grey
88	AB	Edmonton-Beaumont
89	ON	Middlesex-Kent-Lambton
90	ON	Northumberland-Quinte West
91	ON	Chatham-Kent-Essex
92	AB	Edmonton Centre
93	ON	Ottawa West-Nepean
94	ON	Barrie
95	SK	Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
96	BC	Fleetwood-Port Kells
97	BC	North Vancouver
98	ON	Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
99	ON	Brant
100	SK	Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
101	ON	Ottawa-Orléans
102	ON	Nipissing-Timiskaming
103	BC	Nanaimo-Alberni
104	ON	St. Catharines
105	ON	Simcoe North
106	ON	Brampton West
107	BC	Dewdney-Alouette
108	NL	Bonavista-Exploits
109	ON	Burlington
110	ON	Kitchener-Conestoga
111	ON	Parry Sound-Muskoka
112	BC	Newton-North Delta
113	SK	Regina-Qu'Appelle
114	NB	Tobique-Mactaquac
115	ON	Ottawa South
116	ON	Whitby-Oshawa
117	NS	West Nova
118	BC	Richmond
119	NB	Saint John
120	SK	Saskatoon-Humboldt
121	ON	Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
122	ON	Halton
123	BC	Southern Interior
124	ON	Oshawa
125	BC	Vancouver Island North
126	PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent
127	SK	Palliser
128	ON	Peterborough
129	BC	New Westminster-Coquitlam
130	ON	Sarnia-Lambton
131	NB	Fredericton
132	ON	London West
133	BC	Skeena-Bulkley Valley
134	MB	Saint Boniface
135	ON	Hamilton Mountain
136	ON	London North Centre
137	ON	Kenora
138	ON	Ajax-Pickering
139	PQ	Pontiac
140	NS	Kings-Hants
141	ON	Mississauga South
142	ON	Welland
143	ON	Oakville
144	ON	Thunder Bay-Rainy River
145	MB	Winnipeg South
146	ON	London-Fanshawe
147	BC	Burnaby-New Westminster
148	ON	Oak Ridges-Markham
149	ON	Mississauga-Streetsville
150	ON	Kitchener-Waterloo
151	ON	Guelph
152	ON	Bramalea-Gore-Malton
153	ON	Huron-Bruce
154	BC	Burnaby-Douglas
155	NB	Miramichi
156	BC	Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
157	PE	Malpeque
158	ON	Kitchener Centre
159	MB	Winnipeg South Centre
160	ON	Thornhill
161	ON	Etobicoke-Lakeshore
162	PE	Cardigan
163	BC	Vancouver South
164	ON	Brampton-Springdale
165	PE	Charlottetown
166	ON	Mississauga-Erindale
167	BC	Nanaimo-Cowichan
168	BC	Victoria
169	NB	Madawaska-Restigouche
170	ON	Hamilton Centre
171	ON	Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
172	NB	Beauséjour
173	ON	Ottawa-Vanier
174	PQ	Portneuf
175	PQ	Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
176	BC	Vancouver Quadra
177	PE	Egmont
178	ON	Thunder Bay-Superior North
179	ON	Don Valley East
180	ON	Scarborough Southwest
181	YT	Yukon
182	ON	Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
183	NS	Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
184	ON	Sault Ste. Marie
185	ON	Sudbury
186	ON	York Centre
187	ON	Pickering-Scarborough East
188	NL	Avalon
189	BC	Vancouver Centre
190	ON	Kingston and the Islands
191	PQ	Lévis-Bellechasse
192	NS	Halifax West
193	ON	Etobicoke Centre
194	PQ	Beauce
195	ON	Mississauga East-Cooksville
196	ON	Don Valley West
197	SK	Wascana
198	ON	Mississauga-Brampton South
199	ON	Nickel Belt
200	ON	Richmond Hill
201	ON	Scarborough Centre
202	ON	Windsor-Tecumseh
203	NS	Cape Breton-Canso
204	ON	Ottawa Centre
205	ON	Scarborough-Guildwood
206	ON	Eglinton-Lawrence
207	NB	Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
208	NL	Random-Burin-St. George's
209	NS	Sackville-Eastern Shore
210	PQ	Louis-Hébert
211	ON	Parkdale-High Park
212	MB	Elmwood-Transcona
213	BC	Vancouver Kingsway
214	NW	Western Arctic
215	PQ	Beauport
216	NU	Nunavut
217	ON	Willowdale
218	ON	St. Paul's
219	ON	Windsor West
220	ON	Vaughan
221	NL	Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
222	PQ	Charlesbourg
223	NS	Sydney-Victoria
224	ON	Timmins-James Bay
225	PQ	Brome-Missisquoi
226	PQ	Hull-Aylmer
227	ON	Beaches-East York
228	NS	Halifax
229	PQ	Drummond
230	PQ	Mégantic-L'Érable
231	ON	Scarborough-Agincourt
232	PQ	Compton-Stanstead
233	PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
234	PQ	Québec
235	ON	Etobicoke North
236	ON	Markham-Unionville
237	ON	Scarborough-Rouge River
238	ON	Toronto Centre
239	MB	Churchill
308	NL	Labrador
308	NB	Acadie-Bathurst
308	PQ	Abitibi-Témiscamingue
308	PQ	Ahuntsic
308	PQ	Alfred-Pellan
308	PQ	Argenteuil-Mirabel
308	PQ	Beauharnois-Salaberry
308	PQ	Berthier-Maskinongé
308	PQ	Bourassa
308	PQ	Brossard-La Prairie
308	PQ	Chambly-Borduas
308	PQ	Charlevoix-Montmorency
308	PQ	Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
308	PQ	Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
308	PQ	Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
308	PQ	Gatineau
308	PQ	Hochelaga
308	PQ	Honoré-Mercier
308	PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber
308	PQ	Joliette
308	PQ	Jonquière-Alma
308	PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis
308	PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île
308	PQ	LaSalle-Émard
308	PQ	Laurentides-Labelle
308	PQ	Laurier
308	PQ	Laval
308	PQ	Laval-Les Îles
308	PQ	Longueuil
308	PQ	Manicouagan
308	PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
308	PQ	Matapédia-Matane
308	PQ	Montcalm
308	PQ	Mount Royal
308	PQ	Nunavik-Eeyou
308	PQ	Outremont
308	PQ	Papineau
308	PQ	Pierrefonds-Dollard
308	PQ	Repentigny
308	PQ	Richelieu
308	PQ	Richmond-Arthabaska
308	PQ	Rimouski-Témiscouata
308	PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Loup-Montmagny
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Nord
308	PQ	Roberval
308	PQ	Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
308	PQ	Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
308	PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
308	PQ	Saint-Jean
308	PQ	Saint-Lambert
308	PQ	Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
308	PQ	Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
308	PQ	Saint-Maurice-Champlain
308	PQ	Shefford
308	PQ	Sherbrooke
308	PQ	Terrebonne-Blainville
308	PQ	Trois-Rivières
308	PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges
308	PQ	Verchères-Les Patriotes
308	PQ	Westmount-Ville-Marie
308	ON	Davenport
308	ON	Toronto-Danforth
308	ON	Trinity-Spadina
308	ON	York South-Weston
308	ON	York West
308	MB	Winnipeg Centre
308	MB	Winnipeg North
308	BC	Vancouver East

Canada - January 21, 2006

Average Jan. 20
Con: 36.8 Lib: 27.8 Ndp: 18.6 Blc: 11.2
Con: 140 Lib: 80 Ndp: 30 Blc: 58
Con: 140.9 Lib: 77.6 Ndp: 31.9 Blc: 57.6

Strategic Vision Jan. 20:
Con: 37.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 143 Lib: 76 Ndp: 31 Blc: 58
Con: 143.3 Lib: 74.1 Ndp: 33.0 Blc: 57.6

Ekos Jan. 20:
Con: 37.1 Lib: 26.9 Ndp: 19.5 Blc: 11.5
Con: 141 Lib: 72 Ndp: 34 Blc: 61
Con: 143.0 Lib: 71.7 Ndp: 34.0 Blc: 59.3

SES Jan. 20:
Con: 36.2 Lib: 29.4 Ndp: 17.3 Blc: 11.0
Con: 137 Lib: 88 Ndp: 27 Blc: 56
Con: 136.0 Lib: 87.5 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 55.9

SES Regional Jan. 20:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	34.0	34.0	27.0	0.0
PQ	27.0	18.0	9.0	44.0
ON	35.0	39.0	17.0	0.0
West	45.0	27.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	12	15	5	0	11.8	15.2	5.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	9	0	61	5.8	10.1	0.0	59.1	0	21	0	54
ON	41	56	9	0	39.7	56.2	10.1	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	65	17	13	0	63.1	18.9	13.0	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	123	97	27	61	120.4	100.3	28.1	59.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - Seat Probabilities

Based on national average of the January 21, 2006 post. These don't take into account any localized or regional trends. A probability of 1 means a 100 % chance of victory, 0.50 means 50 %, and so on.

Province	Riding	Winner	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
NL	Avalon	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
NL	Bonavista—Exploits	C	0.89	0.11	0.00	0.00
NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Labrador	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	L	0.00	0.59	0.40	0.00
NL	St. John's North	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NL	St. John's South	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PE	Cardigan	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
PE	Charlottetown	L	0.23	0.77	0.00	0.00
PE	Egmont	L	0.09	0.91	0.00	0.00
PE	Malpeque	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
NS	Cape Breton—Canso	L	0.01	0.99	0.01	0.00
NS	Central Nova	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	N	0.06	0.35	0.59	0.00
NS	Halifax	N	0.00	0.03	0.97	0.00
NS	Halifax West	L	0.03	0.86	0.11	0.00
NS	Kings—Hants	L	0.47	0.53	0.00	0.00
NS	North Nova	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
NS	Sydney—Victoria	L	0.00	0.96	0.04	0.00
NS	West Nova	C	0.81	0.19	0.00	0.00
NB	Acadie—Bathurst	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NB	Beauséjour	L	0.11	0.89	0.00	0.00
NB	Fredericton	C	0.66	0.34	0.00	0.00
NB	Fundy	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	L	0.18	0.69	0.13	0.00
NB	Miramichi	L	0.34	0.66	0.00	0.00
NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Saint John	C	0.80	0.20	0.00	0.00
NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	C	0.84	0.16	0.00	0.00
PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Ahuntsic	B	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.58
PQ	Alfred-Pellan	B	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.96
PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauce	L	0.03	0.54	0.00	0.43
PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauport	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Bourassa	L	0.00	0.86	0.00	0.14
PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	B	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.59
PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	L	0.00	0.54	0.00	0.46
PQ	Chambly—Borduas	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlesbourg	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	B	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.78
PQ	Compton—Stanstead	B	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.98
PQ	Drummond	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gatineau	B	0.00	0.37	0.00	0.63
PQ	Hochelaga	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Honoré-Mercier	L	0.00	0.59	0.00	0.41
PQ	Hull—Aylmer	L	0.00	0.77	0.00	0.23
PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	B	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.66
PQ	Joliette	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Jonquière—Alma	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	LaSalle—Émard	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laurier	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laval	B	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.99
PQ	Laval—Les Îles	L	0.00	0.81	0.00	0.19
PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	B	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.97
PQ	Longueuil	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	B	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.91
PQ	Louis-Hébert	B	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.97
PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	C	0.74	0.00	0.00	0.26
PQ	Manicouagan	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Matapédia—Matane	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	B	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.97
PQ	Montcalm	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mount Royal	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	B	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.77
PQ	Outremont	L	0.00	0.71	0.00	0.29
PQ	Papineau	B	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.67
PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Pontiac	C	0.47	0.44	0.00	0.09
PQ	Portneuf	B	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.90
PQ	Québec	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Repentigny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richelieu	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Roberval	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Jean	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Lambert	B	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.98
PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Shefford	B	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.93
PQ	Sherbrooke	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Trois-Rivières	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	B	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.90
PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Ajax—Pickering	L	0.48	0.52	0.00	0.00
ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	N	0.15	0.28	0.57	0.00
ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	C	0.94	0.06	0.00	0.00
ON	Barrie	C	0.96	0.04	0.00	0.00
ON	Beaches—East York	L	0.00	0.70	0.30	0.00
ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	L	0.35	0.65	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton—Springdale	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton West	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
ON	Brant	C	0.94	0.06	0.01	0.00
ON	Burlington	C	0.88	0.12	0.00	0.00
ON	Cambridge	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Carleton—Lanark	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Davenport	L	0.00	0.75	0.25	0.00
ON	Don Valley East	L	0.08	0.92	0.00	0.00
ON	Don Valley West	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Dufferin—Caledon	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Essex	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
ON	Etobicoke Centre	L	0.03	0.97	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	L	0.30	0.70	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke North	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	C	0.78	0.22	0.00	0.00
ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Guelph	L	0.36	0.64	0.01	0.00
ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Halton	C	0.78	0.22	0.00	0.00
ON	Hamilton Centre	N	0.15	0.00	0.85	0.00
ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	N	0.06	0.05	0.89	0.00
ON	Hamilton Mountain	C	0.51	0.01	0.49	0.00
ON	Huron—Bruce	L	0.35	0.65	0.00	0.00
ON	Kenora	C	0.50	0.02	0.48	0.00
ON	Kingston and the Islands	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener Centre	L	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	C	0.88	0.12	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	L	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00
ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Leeds—Grenville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	London—Fanshawe	N	0.43	0.11	0.46	0.00
ON	London North Centre	C	0.50	0.47	0.03	0.00
ON	London West	C	0.60	0.40	0.00	0.00
ON	Markham—Unionville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Erindale	L	0.20	0.80	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga South	L	0.46	0.54	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	L	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00
ON	Nepean—Carleton	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Newmarket—Aurora	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara Falls	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Nickel Belt	N	0.01	0.28	0.70	0.00
ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	C	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.00
ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	L	0.39	0.61	0.00	0.00
ON	Oakville	L	0.45	0.55	0.00	0.00
ON	Oshawa	C	0.76	0.00	0.24	0.00
ON	Ottawa Centre	N	0.01	0.00	0.99	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Orléans	C	0.93	0.07	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa South	C	0.82	0.18	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Vanier	L	0.11	0.89	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	C	0.96	0.04	0.00	0.00
ON	Oxford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Parkdale—High Park	N	0.00	0.29	0.71	0.00
ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
ON	Perth—Wellington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Peterborough	C	0.72	0.28	0.00	0.00
ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Richmond Hill	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Catharines	C	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Paul's	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sarnia—Lambton	C	0.72	0.28	0.00	0.00
ON	Sault Ste. Marie	N	0.06	0.01	0.93	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Centre	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Southwest	L	0.08	0.91	0.01	0.00
ON	Simcoe—Grey	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Simcoe North	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sudbury	L	0.06	0.62	0.32	0.00
ON	Thornhill	L	0.30	0.70	0.00	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	C	0.44	0.18	0.38	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	L	0.08	0.58	0.34	0.00
ON	Timmins—James Bay	N	0.00	0.03	0.97	0.00
ON	Toronto Centre	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Toronto—Danforth	N	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00
ON	Trinity—Spadina	N	0.00	0.09	0.91	0.00
ON	Vaughan	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Welland	C	0.46	0.20	0.35	0.00
ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Whitby—Oshawa	C	0.82	0.18	0.00	0.00
ON	Willowdale	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	N	0.01	0.00	0.99	0.00
ON	Windsor West	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
ON	York Centre	L	0.05	0.95	0.00	0.00
ON	York—Simcoe	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York South—Weston	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York West	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Brandon—Souris	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Charleswood—St. James	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
MB	Churchill	N	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00
MB	Dauphin—Swan River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Elmwood—Transcona	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
MB	Portage—Lisgar	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Provencher	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Saint Boniface	C	0.52	0.48	0.00	0.00
MB	Selkirk—Interlake	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg Centre	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg North	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South	L	0.43	0.57	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South Centre	L	0.30	0.69	0.00	0.00
SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Blackstrap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Churchill River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Palliser	C	0.73	0.00	0.27	0.00
SK	Prince Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	C	0.93	0.00	0.06	0.00
SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	C	0.84	0.00	0.16	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	C	0.79	0.00	0.21	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	C	0.96	0.00	0.04	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	C	0.99	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Wascana	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
SK	Yorkton—Melville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Athabasca	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary North Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Northeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary South Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southwest	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary West	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Crowfoot	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton Centre	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Leduc	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Lethbridge	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Macleod	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Medicine Hat	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Red Deer	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Westlock—St. Paul	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wetaskiwin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wild Rose	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Yellowhead	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Abbotsford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Burnaby—Douglas	N	0.34	0.00	0.65	0.00
BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	N	0.42	0.00	0.58	0.00
BC	Cariboo—Prince George	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Delta—Richmond East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Dewdney—Alouette	C	0.91	0.00	0.09	0.00
BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	N	0.34	0.06	0.61	0.00
BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	C	0.95	0.00	0.05	0.00
BC	Kamloops—Thompson	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Kelowna	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Kootenay—Columbia	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Langley	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	C	0.92	0.00	0.08	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	N	0.20	0.00	0.80	0.00
BC	Newton—North Delta	C	0.86	0.00	0.14	0.00
BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	C	0.72	0.00	0.28	0.00
BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	North Vancouver	C	0.95	0.05	0.00	0.00
BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Prince George—Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Richmond	C	0.81	0.19	0.00	0.00
BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	C	0.53	0.00	0.47	0.00
BC	Southern Interior	C	0.77	0.00	0.23	0.00
BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Surrey North	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Vancouver Centre	N	0.04	0.27	0.69	0.00
BC	Vancouver East	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver Island North	C	0.74	0.00	0.26	0.00
BC	Vancouver Kingsway	N	0.00	0.11	0.89	0.00
BC	Vancouver Quadra	L	0.09	0.91	0.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver South	L	0.29	0.67	0.04	0.00
BC	Victoria	N	0.19	0.06	0.75	0.00
BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
YT	Yukon	L	0.06	0.86	0.08	0.00
NW	Western Arctic	N	0.00	0.05	0.94	0.00
NU	Nunavut	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
	Total		140.9	77.6	31.9	57.6

Canada - January 20, 2006

Ipsos Jan. 19
Con: 38.0 Lib: 26.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 11.7
Con: 151 Lib: 65 Ndp: 31 Blc: 61
Con: 149.3 Lib: 65.8 Ndp: 32.5 Blc: 60.5
Ipsos says Con: 143-147 Lib: 59-63 NDP: 39-43 Blc: 59-63

Strategic Vision Jan. 19
Con: 38.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 147 Lib: 76 Ndp: 27 Blc: 58
Con: 146.9 Lib: 77.1 Ndp: 27.3 Blc: 56.7

Ekos Jan. 19
Con: 37.4 Lib: 27.3 Ndp: 20.8 Blc: 10.1
Con: 139 Lib: 78 Ndp: 38 Blc: 53
Con: 142.4 Lib: 75.7 Ndp: 35.9 Blc: 54.1

SES Jan. 19
Con: 35.5 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 18.8 Blc: 11.1
Con: 130 Lib: 84 Ndp: 35 Blc: 58
Con: 131.7 Lib: 86.0 Ndp: 32.6 Blc: 56.6

SES Regional Jan. 19

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	41.0	31.0	23.0	0.0
PQ	26.0	18.0	9.0	44.0
ON	36.0	39.0	19.0	0.0
West	41.0	28.0	25.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	18	10	4	0	18.1	9.9	4.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	9	0	61	5.2	10.2	0.0	59.6	0	21	0	54
ON	41	54	11	0	41.2	53.2	11.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	54	19	22	0	544	20.7	19.8	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	118	92	37	61	118.9	94.1	35.3	59.6	99	135	19	54

Average Jan. 19
Con: 37.2 Lib: 27.6 Ndp: 18.9 Blc: 11.0
Con: 141 Lib: 79 Ndp: 30 Blc: 58
Con: 142.8 Lib: 76.0 Ndp: 32.1 Blc: 57.0

So at this point, it looks like a conservative minority.

Canada - January 19, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 18
Con: 37.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 142 Lib: 79 Ndp: 25 Blc: 61
Con: 142.6 Lib: 77.7 Ndp: 26.5 Blc: 60.2

Ekos Jan. 18
Con: 35.1 Lib: 29.3 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 12.6
Con: 129 Lib: 83 Ndp: 33 Blc: 63
Con: 130.8 Lib: 84.7 Ndp: 31.2 Blc: 61.3

SES Jan. 18
Con: 37.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 136 Lib: 96 Ndp: 23 Blc: 53
Con: 135.1 Lib: 92.6 Ndp: 25.8 Blc: 54.5

SES Regional Jan. 18

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	47.0	37.0	14.0	0.0
PQ	24.0	19.0	10.0	44.0
ON	40.0	39.0	15.0	0.0
West	41.0	30.0	24.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	20	10	2	0	19.4	10.7	1.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	3	10	0	62	4.1	11.0	0.0	59.9	0	21	0	54
ON	50	47	9	0	50.6	48.0	7.4	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	53	24	18	0	53.4	24.4	17.0	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	126	91	29	62	127.5	94.2	26.3	59.9	99	135	19	54

Average Jan. 18
Con: 36.7 Lib: 29.4 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.9
Con: 138 Lib: 83 Ndp: 26 Blc: 60
Con: 136.6 Lib: 84.1 Ndp: 27.5 Blc: 58.8

Canada - January 18, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 17
Con: 41.0 Lib: 25.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 170 Lib: 51 Ndp: 24 Blc: 63
Con: 165.4 Lib: 55.2 Ndp: 25.9 Blc: 61.5

Ekos Jan. 17
Con: 36.9 Lib: 27.2 Ndp: 19.6 Blc: 11.0
Con: 138 Lib: 78 Ndp: 34 Blc: 58
Con: 141.7 Lib: 74.7 Ndp: 34.2 Blc: 57.5

SES Jan. 17
Con: 36.9 Lib: 31.5 Ndp: 17.6 Blc: 10.0
Con: 134 Lib: 99 Ndp: 24 Blc: 51
Con: 133.3 Lib: 97.5 Ndp: 26.5 Blc: 50.7

SES Regional Jan. 17

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	44.0	38.0	17.0	0.0
PQ	23.0	20.0	12.0	41.0
ON	40.0	39.0	15.0	0.0
West	41.0	31.0	24.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	15	14	3	0	16.2	13.4	2.4	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	12	0	58	4.5	13.5	0.1	56.9	0	21	0	54
ON	50	47	9	0	50.6	48.0	7.4	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	52	27	16	0	52.6	26.0	16.3	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	122	100	28	58	123.9	100.9	26.2	56.9	99	135	19	54

Average Jan. 17
Con: 38.3 Lib: 27.9 Ndp: 18.1 Blc: 11.0
Con: 146 Lib: 75 Ndp: 28 Blc: 58
Con: 146.0 Lib: 75.2 Ndp: 29.1 Blc: 56.7

Canada - January 17, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 16
Con: 42.0 Lib: 24.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 174 Lib: 47 Ndp: 23 Blc: 64
Con: 171.4 Lib: 49.5 Ndp: 25.2 Blc: 61.8

SES Jan. 16
Con: 37.0 Lib: 30.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 137 Lib: 93 Ndp: 27 Blc: 51
Con: 137.2 Lib: 90.4 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 51.8

SES Regional Jan. 16

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	39.0	35.0	26.0	0.0
PQ	22.0	20.0	12.0	44.0
ON	38.0	34.0	23.0	0.0
West	45.0	30.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	13	15	4	0	14.2	13.5	4.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	11	0	62	3.2	11.8	0.0	59.9	0	21	0	54
ON	49	38	19	0	51.9	37.1	17.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	63	26	6	0	61.5	24.1	9.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	127	90	29	62	130.8	86.5	30.7	59.9	99	135	19	54

Ekos Jan. 16
Con: 35.8 Lib: 29.6 Ndp: 19.4 Blc: 11.6
Con: 131 Lib: 84 Ndp: 35 Blc: 58
Con: 131.5 Lib: 85.7 Ndp: 33.0 Blc: 57.8

Ipsos Jan. 16
Con: 38.0 Lib: 26.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 12.6
Con: 151 Lib: 62 Ndp: 31 Blc: 64
Con: 148.8 Lib: 63.8 Ndp: 32.5 Blc: 62.9

The Ipsos poll was of 8256 voters, which is a huge number. I would think it is an accurate poll. They say their seat model gives Con: 149-153 Lib: 64-68 Ndp: 29-33 Blc: 57-61. My understanding is it uses many regions, so it is likely relatively good.

Canada - January 16, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 15
Con: 40.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 163 Lib: 63 Ndp: 24 Blc: 58
Con: 158.2 Lib: 68.4 Ndp: 24.2 Blc: 57.2

SES Jan. 15
Con: 37.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 138 Lib: 85 Ndp: 29 Blc: 56
Con: 139.3 Lib: 83.1 Ndp: 29.4 Blc: 56.1

Ekos Jan. 15
Con: 38.6 Lib: 27.2 Ndp: 18.6 Blc: 10.6
Con: 148 Lib: 75 Ndp: 28 Blc: 57
Con: 149.7 Lib: 72.3 Ndp: 30.2 Blc: 55.8

Canada - January 15, 2006

SES Jan. 14
Con: 38.0 Lib: 30.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 140 Lib: 94 Ndp: 23 Blc: 51
Con: 142.1 Lib: 88.6 Ndp: 25.7 Blc: 51.6

Canada - January 14, 2006

SES Jan. 13
Con: 38.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 144 Lib: 86 Ndp: 22 Blc: 56
Con: 145.2 Lib: 82.1 Ndp: 24.7 Blc: 56.0

Canada - January 13, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 12
Con: 39.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 150 Lib: 76 Ndp: 24 Blc: 58
Con: 151.7 Lib: 75.1 Ndp: 24.5 Blc: 56.6

SES Jan. 12
Con: 40.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 146 Lib: 92 Ndp: 19 Blc: 51
Con: 149.4 Lib: 89.4 Ndp: 18.6 Blc: 50.5

Ekos Jan. 12
Con: 37.6 Lib: 28.3 Ndp: 18.1 Blc: 11.6
Con: 141 Lib: 78 Ndp: 29 Blc: 60
Con: 143.0 Lib: 76.8 Ndp: 29.6 Blc: 58.6

Ipsos Jan. 12
Con: 37.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 138 Lib: 89 Ndp: 29 Blc: 52
Con: 139.9 Lib: 86.2 Ndp: 29.4 Blc: 52.5

Canada - January 12, 2006

Strategic Vision Jan. 11:
Con: 39.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 150 Lib: 73 Ndp: 24 Blc: 61
Con: 151.2 Lib: 72.3 Ndp: 24.5 Blc: 59.9

Ekos Jan. 11:
Con: 36.3 Lib: 28.8 Ndp: 17.9 Blc: 13.3
Con: 135 Lib: 76 Ndp: 30 Blc: 66
Con: 135.4 Lib: 78.1 Ndp: 30.2 Blc: 63.3

SES Jan. 11:
Con: 38.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 143 Lib: 81 Ndp: 22 Blc: 61
Con: 143.7 Lib: 79.1 Ndp: 24.7 Blc: 59.4

SES Regional Jan. 11:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	39.0	39.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	21.0	17.0	8.0	51.0
ON	43.0	35.0	17.0	0.0
West	46.0	29.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	12	17	3	0	12.1	16.9	3.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	8	0	65	1.6	8.3	0.0	65.1	0	21	0	54
ON	67	29	10	0	63.3	33.6	9.2	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	64	24	6	0	63.3	22.2	8.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	145	78	19	65	140.3	81.0	20.6	65.1	99	135	19	54