Election Polls

Saskatchewan - Average

2007-11-06T23:16:00.000-07:00

Here are the probabilities for the Saskatchewan party to win each seat based on a province-wide projection of the three publicly released polls. The raw data is SKP 51.7 NDP 34.0 LIB 9.2. This projects to a seat count of SKP 39 NDP 19. Ridings that are somewhat close are ranked 33-45, meaning if the numbers stay as they are the SKP will win a majority (needing 30). If they win any seats ranked below 45, it will be a very big win, while if they lose some than are less then 33 it could end up close. All that is not withstanding specific local effects like candidates or retirements, but that variance is factored into the probability calculation.

Ranking	Riding	Winner	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	S	1.0000	72.28
2	Cypress Hills	S	1.0000	67.61
3	Kindersley	S	1.0000	61.52
4	Rosetown-Elrose	S	1.0000	59.36
5	Wood River	S	1.0000	52.45
6	Moosomin	S	1.0000	51.99
7	Martensville	S	1.0000	51.35
8	Kelvington-Wadena	S	1.0000	49.51
9	Thunder Creek	S	1.0000	45.68
10	Swift Current	S	1.0000	44.78
11	Estevan	S	1.0000	42.99
12	Biggar	S	1.0000	40.43
13	Melfort	S	1.0000	39.72
14	Canora-Pelly	S	1.0000	38.38
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	1.0000	34.78
16	Indian Head-Milestone	S	1.0000	32.93
17	Arm River-Watrous	S	1.0000	32.90
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	1.0000	32.65
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	1.0000	31.72
20	Batoche	S	1.0000	30.57
21	Saskatoon Southeast	S	1.0000	30.36
22	Melville-Saltcoats	S	0.9999	29.83
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	0.9999	28.74
24	Carrot River Valley	S	0.9999	27.74
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	0.9999	27.52
26	Saskatoon Northwest	S	0.9998	26.41
27	Humboldt	S	0.9994	24.83
28	Lloydminster	S	0.9994	24.61
29	Regina Wascana Plains	S	0.9902	17.75
30	Meadow Lake	S	0.9874	17.03
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	S	0.9706	14.39
32	Yorkton	S	0.9554	12.89
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	S	0.8294	7.16
34	The Battlefords	S	0.8083	6.20
35	Saskatoon Greystone	S	0.8018	6.44
36	Saskatoon Eastview	S	0.7867	5.83
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	S	0.6461	2.77
38	Regina South	S	0.5817	1.55
39	Moose Jaw North	S	0.5539	1.03
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	0.3797	-2.36
41	Regina Dewdney	N	0.3132	-3.70
42	Prince Albert Northcote	N	0.1793	-6.97
43	Saskatoon Fairview	N	0.1517	-7.79
44	Prince Albert Carlton	N	0.1253	-8.72
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	0.1096	-9.37
46	Regina Douglas Park	N	0.0399	-13.34
47	Regina Lakeview	N	0.0378	-13.43
48	Saskatoon Nutana	N	0.0366	-13.48
49	Regina Northeast	N	0.0197	-15.66
50	Regina Coronation Park	N	0.0162	-16.30
51	Regina Walsh Acres	N	0.0146	-16.63
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	N	0.0143	-16.71
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	N	0.0126	-17.02
54	Regina Rosemont	N	0.0119	-17.21
55	Saskatoon Centre	N	0.0099	-17.75
56	Athabasca	N	0.0009	-23.68
57	Cumberland	N	0.0007	-24.31
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	0.0006	-24.65

Saskatchewan - Regions - November 2, 2007

2007-11-04T13:11:00.000-07:00

The Nov. 2 poll had regional splits for Regina and Saskatoon. http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=657c0a81-40ea-40f6-a68e-e2031a3e8fd7

Regina:
Raw: SKP 41.8 NDP 45.8 LIB 6.1 OTH 2.2
Projects: SKP 4 NDP 7

Saskatoon:
Raw: SKP 43.8 NDP 39.4 LIB 12.8 OTH 4.0
Projects: SKP 7 NDP 5

Both those projections are the same as yesterday's poll. Given the raw numbers here, and the totals for the poll, the SKP lead in the rest of the province is probably a few points more than in yesterday's poll. That would change that projection to SKP 30 NDP 5, and make the provincial total SKP 41 NDP 17. Unless there is some local effect happening, LIB and OTH won't be close anywhere.

Saskatchewan - Province - November 2, 2007

2007-11-04T13:06:00.000-07:00

A third poll of the week: http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=657c0a81-40ea-40f6-a68e-e2031a3e8fd7.

Raw: SKP 54.2 NDP 33.7 LIB 8 OTH 4.1
Projects: SKP 40 NDP 18 LIB 0 OTH 0
Probability: SKP 40.1 NDP 17.8 LIB 0.0 OTH 0.0

Saskatchewan - Regions - November 1, 2007

2007-11-03T16:59:00.000-06:00

The poll in the previous post had regional splits: http://insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=175382

I have adjusted them to have decided voters add to 100. I don't have software yet to do probability on these.

Regina:
Raw: SKP 41.6 NDP 40.2 LIB 12.4 OTH 5.8
Projects: SKP 4 NDP 7 LIB 0 OTH 0

Saskatoon
Raw: SKP 47.0 NDP 35.4 LIB 11.0 OTH 6.6
Projects: SKP 7 NDP 5 LB 0 OTH 0

The rest:
Raw: SKP 58.0 NDP 30.5 LIB 7.2 OTH 4.3
Projects: SKP 29 NDP 6 LIB 0 OTH 0

Combining the projection makes SKP 40 NDP 18.

Saskatchewan - Province - November 1, 2007

2007-11-03T16:53:00.000-06:00

A second Saskatchewan poll: http://insightrix.com/site_files/cd76bd107964359ee33743cfd55dc7fc.pdf.

Raw: SKP 51.0 NDP 33.4 LIB 9.2 OTH 6.4
Projects: SKP 39 NDP 19 LIB 0 OTH 0
Probability: SKP 38.3 NDP 19.6 LIB 0.1 OTH 0.0

More Saskatchewan - October 29, 2007

2007-10-29T21:10:00.000-06:00

Here is today's third post, a ranked list of seats for the Saskatchewan party based on today's poll and the below projections. 29 seats are needed for a majority. The probability is determined through a method I have developed, based on the accuracy of projections in previous provincial elections.

Ranking	Riding	Probability	Lead
1	Cannington	1.0000	69.58
2	Cypress Hills	1.0000	64.91
3	Kindersley	1.0000	58.82
4	Rosetown-Elrose	1.0000	56.66
5	Wood River	1.0000	49.75
6	Moosomin	1.0000	49.29
7	Martensville	1.0000	48.65
8	Kelvington-Wadena	1.0000	46.81
9	Thunder Creek	1.0000	42.98
10	Swift Current	1.0000	42.08
11	Estevan	1.0000	40.29
12	Biggar	1.0000	37.73
13	Melfort	1.0000	37.02
14	Canora-Pelly	1.0000	35.68
15	Rosthern-Shellbrook	1.0000	32.08
16	Indian Head-Milestone	1.0000	30.23
17	Arm River-Watrous	1.0000	30.20
18	Cut Knife-Turtleford	1.0000	29.95
19	Last Mountain-Touchwood	0.9999	29.02
20	Batoche	0.9999	27.87
21	Saskatoon Southeast	0.9999	27.66
22	Melville-Saltcoats	0.9998	27.13
23	Saskatoon Silver Springs	0.9997	26.04
24	Carrot River Valley	0.9995	25.04
25	Weyburn-Big Muddy	0.9994	24.82
26	Saskatoon Northwest	0.9992	23.71
27	Humboldt	0.9982	22.13
28	Lloydminster	0.9980	21.91
29	Regina Wascana Plains	0.9763	15.05
30	Meadow Lake	0.9699	14.33
31	Saskatchewan Rivers	0.9381	11.69
32	Yorkton	0.9097	10.19
33	Saskatoon Meewasin	0.7028	4.46
34	Saskatoon Greystone	0.6904	3.74
35	The Battlefords	0.6883	3.50
36	Saskatoon Eastview	0.6683	3.13
37	Saskatoon Sutherland	0.5019	0.07
38	Regina South	0.4380	-1.15
39	Moose Jaw North	0.4146	-1.67
40	Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	0.2522	-5.06
41	Regina Dewdney	0.2010	-6.40
42	Prince Albert Northcote	0.1022	-9.67
43	Saskatoon Fairview	0.0837	-10.49
44	Prince Albert Carlton	0.0669	-11.42
45	Moose Jaw Wakamow	0.0560	-12.07
46	Regina Douglas Park	0.0172	-16.04
47	Regina Lakeview	0.0164	-16.13
48	Saskatoon Nutana	0.0154	-16.18
49	Regina Northeast	0.0080	-18.36
50	Regina Coronation Park	0.0062	-19.00
51	Regina Walsh Acres	0.0055	-19.33
52	Saskatoon Massey Place	0.0054	-19.41
53	Saskatoon Riversdale	0.0048	-19.72
54	Regina Rosemont	0.0045	-19.91
55	Saskatoon Centre	0.0036	-20.45
56	Athabasca	0.0003	-26.38
57	Cumberland	0.0002	-27.01
58	Regina Elphinstone-Centre	0.0002	-27.35

Saskatchewan Projection - October 29, 2007

2007-10-29T20:46:00.000-06:00

Here are the projected results in each riding from 2003 to today's poll (SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10). The last two columns are the probability of winning the seat, based on this projection.

The major limitation with this method is that province-wide poll results are projected.

	Win	SKP	NDP	LIB	OTH	SKP	NDP
Arm River-Watrous	S	58.75	28.55	6.84	5.87	1.0000	0.0000
Athabasca	N	34.00	60.38	1.85	3.77	0.0003	0.9997
Batoche	S	54.55	26.68	12.83	5.94	0.9999	0.0001
Biggar	S	64.22	26.49	6.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Cannington	S	81.53	11.95	3.38	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Canora-Pelly	S	63.61	27.93	3.14	5.31	1.0000	0.0000
Carrot River Valley	S	57.42	32.38	7.07	3.13	0.9995	0.0005
Cumberland	N	32.38	59.39	3.98	4.25	0.0002	0.9998
Cut Knife-Turtleford	S	59.13	29.19	5.85	5.83	1.0000	0.0000
Cypress Hills	S	76.10	11.19	9.58	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Estevan	S	62.01	21.72	11.80	4.47	1.0000	0.0000
Humboldt	S	52.58	30.46	13.82	3.13	0.9982	0.0018
Indian Head-Milestone	S	59.98	29.75	4.47	5.80	1.0000	0.0000
Kelvington-Wadena	S	68.46	21.65	2.72	7.17	1.0000	0.0000
Kindersley	S	71.20	12.38	13.29	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Last Mountain-Touchwood	S	59.11	30.09	4.99	5.81	0.9999	0.0001
Lloydminster	S	60.25	38.34	-1.72	3.13	0.9980	0.0020
Martensville	S	65.90	17.26	12.46	4.38	1.0000	0.0000
Meadow Lake	S	54.97	40.64	1.26	3.13	0.9699	0.0301
Melfort	S	65.55	28.53	2.78	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Melville-Saltcoats	S	49.69	22.55	5.79	21.98	0.9998	0.0001
Moose Jaw North	N	46.54	48.21	1.28	3.97	0.4146	0.5854
Moose Jaw Wakamow	N	40.97	53.04	1.90	4.09	0.0560	0.9440
Moosomin	S	70.51	21.22	2.72	5.54	1.0000	0.0000
Prince Albert Carlton	N	38.34	49.76	7.27	4.62	0.0669	0.9331
Prince Albert Northcote	N	37.57	47.24	9.40	5.79	0.1022	0.8978
Regina Coronation Park	N	34.23	53.23	7.83	4.71	0.0062	0.9938
Regina Dewdney	N	39.11	45.50	11.27	4.12	0.2010	0.7990
Regina Douglas Park	N	31.73	47.77	14.76	5.74	0.0172	0.9828
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	N	26.68	54.03	7.06	12.23	0.0002	0.9998
Regina Lakeview	N	31.06	47.19	17.24	4.52	0.0164	0.9836
Regina Northeast	N	33.33	51.69	10.14	4.85	0.0080	0.9920
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	N	42.28	47.34	6.45	3.94	0.2522	0.7478
Regina Rosemont	N	32.37	52.28	10.49	4.86	0.0045	0.9955
Regina South	N	38.69	39.84	17.01	4.46	0.4380	0.5620
Regina Walsh Acres	N	33.84	53.17	6.31	6.69	0.0055	0.9945
Regina Wascana Plains	S	48.53	33.48	14.34	3.65	0.9763	0.0237
Rosetown-Elrose	S	74.19	17.53	5.15	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
Rosthern-Shellbrook	S	59.01	26.93	6.35	7.71	1.0000	0.0000
Saskatchewan Rivers	S	49.82	38.13	6.32	5.73	0.9381	0.0619
Saskatoon Centre	N	31.79	52.24	11.36	4.62	0.0036	0.9964
Saskatoon Eastview	S	38.06	34.93	22.72	4.28	0.6683	0.3305
Saskatoon Fairview	N	35.17	45.66	14.39	4.78	0.0837	0.9163
Saskatoon Greystone	S	43.22	39.47	13.60	3.71	0.6904	0.3096
Saskatoon Massey Place	N	32.48	51.89	10.30	5.33	0.0054	0.9946
Saskatoon Meewasin	S	35.62	31.16	29.13	4.09	0.7028	0.2038
Saskatoon Northwest	S	51.42	27.71	17.74	3.13	0.9992	0.0008
Saskatoon Nutana	N	29.43	45.61	19.39	5.58	0.0154	0.9846
Saskatoon Riversdale	N	33.31	53.03	8.97	4.69	0.0048	0.9952
Saskatoon Silver Springs	S	55.42	29.38	12.07	3.13	0.9997	0.0003
Saskatoon Southeast	S	51.00	23.33	21.92	3.75	0.9999	0.0001
Saskatoon Sutherland	S	36.98	36.92	21.49	4.61	0.5019	0.4976
Swift Current	S	69.06	26.98	0.82	3.13	1.0000	0.0000
The Battlefords	S	36.89	33.39	24.62	5.10	0.6883	0.3045
Thunder Creek	S	64.18	21.20	9.51	5.11	1.0000	0.0000
Weyburn-Big Muddy	S	55.79	30.97	10.11	3.13	0.9994	0.0006
Wood River	S	66.01	16.26	11.96	5.77	1.0000	0.0000
Yorkton	S	51.82	41.63	0.61	5.94	0.9097	0.0903

A Saskatchewan Poll - October 29, 2007

2007-10-29T20:40:00.000-06:00

At long last, here is a Saskatchewan poll: http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=a018f4e1-4745-480e-8ac6-4f4e62907379.

Poll:
SKP 50 NDP 35 LIB 10

Projects to:
SKP 37 NDP 21 LIB 0

Projection with probability:
SKP: 36.7 NDP 21.2 LIB 0.1

Since this is likely to be the only public poll, I will have a few posts on this one.

Saskatchewan - Nothing Yet

2007-10-25T22:44:00.000-06:00

There still haven't been any public polls for the Saskatchewan election. That is very annoying. There are only 13 days until the election. Maybe one will come this weekend. Hopefully.

Saskatchewan - A Tie Projection

2007-10-11T21:25:00.000-06:00

Here is a projection if the popular vote is: SKP: 41.0 NDP: 41.0 LIB: 15.0 OTH: 3.0
Projected seats: SKP: 29 NDP: 29 LIB: 0 OTH: 0
Probability seats: SKP: 28.8 NDP: 28.8 LIB: 0.4 OTH: 0.0

So, the popular vote winner is likely to be the seat winner. It doesn't look like 1999 will repeat itself.

Micky

Saskatchewan 2003 - Lucky Effect

2007-10-09T21:53:00.000-06:00

In the 2003 Saskatchewan election, the NDP won 30 seats and the SKP won 28. But, the SKP was a bit lucky, they won the closest five seats. Applying my probabilty model, the seats should have been NDP 32, SKP 25.8, LIB 0.2. If there is no province-wide change in the percentages, that would be the expected results. Once polls come out, I will make new projections.

Micky

Saskatchewan - Coming Soon

2007-10-06T17:37:00.000-06:00

With a Saskatchewan provincial election imminent, I will start posting on this soon.

Last time the seats were NDP 30 SKP 28 Lib 0.
The popular vote was NDP 44.7 SKP 39.4 Lib 14.2 .

There was no redistricting, which is good news for trying to extrapolate previous results. I have some software written, next week I will post some numbers. Unfortunately, there usually aren't many polls for Saskatchewan elections.

Micky

Canada - March 24, 2007

2007-03-24T16:05:00.000-06:00

Ipsos-Reid - Mar. 22, 2007 - National

Con: 40.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 8.0
Con: 146 Lib: 94 Ndp: 25 Blc: 42
Con: 147.9 Lib: 95.3 Ndp: 24.2 Blc: 39.7

Micky

Canada - March 19, 2007

2007-03-19T18:48:00.000-06:00

Strategic Vision - Mar. 13 - National

Con: 36.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 9.0
Con: 120 Lib: 115 Ndp: 25 Blc: 47
Con: 123.8 Lib: 111.4 Ndp: 26.2 Blc: 45.6

Micky

Quebec - March 10, 2007

2007-03-10T12:55:00.000-07:00

CROP - Mar., 10

Lib 33 PQ 29 ADQ 26

Unforunately, I don't have the data from the last election in a file, so there isn't a seat projection for this one.

Micky

Canada - March 9, 2007

2007-03-09T18:02:00.000-07:00

Decima - Mar. 4 - National
Con: 35.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 7.0
Con: 129 Lib: 111 Ndp: 27 Blc: 40
Con: 129.8 Lib: 109.8 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 38.8

Micky

Canada - March 4, 2007

2007-03-04T10:39:00.001-07:00

Decima - Feb. 26 - National

Con: 36.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 13.0 Blc: 8.0
Con: 134 Lib: 100 Ndp: 27 Blc: 46
Con: 137.7 Lib: 99.2 Ndp: 26.8 Blc: 43.4

Micky

Canada - March 2, 2007

2007-03-03T13:09:00.000-07:00

Finally an update on this page. I will try to update more often going forward. THere was an Angus Reid poll released yesterday, here are the projections. The format is the same as before. For national projections, the first line is the poll results, the second line is the seat projection, the third line is a better method based on assigning a probability for each seat. For regional projections, the first table is the poll results. The first few columns of the second table are the seat projections, next few are the seat projections with probability, and the next few are the results in the last election.

Angus-Reid, Feb. 27, national projection
Con: 40.0 Lib: 26.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 150 Lib: 79 Ndp: 27 Blc: 51
Con: 150.3 Lib: 79.6 Ndp: 27.6 Blc: 49.6

Angus-Reid, Feb. 27, regional projection

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	33.0	34.0	23.0	0.0
PQ	22.0	22.0	8.0	38.0
ON	42.0	32.0	17.0	0.0
MB/SK	59.0	19.0	17.0	0.0
AB	68.0	15.0	9.0	0.0
BC	42.0	24.0	23.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	12	17	3	0	12.0	16.2	3.7	0.0	9	20	3	0
PQ	10	16	0	48	9.3	16.4	0.0	48.3	10	13	0	51
ON	61	30	15	0	62.8	30.8	12.5	0.0	40	54	12	0
MB/SK	24	2	2	0	24.1	1.7	2.2	0.0	20	5	3	0
AB	28	0	0	0	27.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	28	0	0	0
BC	25	6	8	0	24.4	7.3	7.3	0.0	17	11	11	0
All	160	71	28	48	160.5	72.5	25.8	48.3	124	103	29	51

Micky

Canada - On the Lucky Effect

2006-01-29T13:42:00.000-07:00

In some election, one side wins a disproportionate amount of the close seats. I refer to this as the "lucky effect". It was first described here: http://electionpolls.blogspot.com/2006/01/general-comments.html.

The lucky effect is quantified as the difference being the actual seats won and the seats predicted using probability using the actual results. If a seat was won by one vote, the probabilities would be about 50-50. Based on my current models, a 10 point win in a two party race is around 87 %, a 20 point win is around 96 %, and a 30 point spread is getting close to 100 %. The regional results have higher probabilities for these spreads, since the standard deviation in the projection is lower. Anyway, here are the numbers:

2006:
Actual: Con: 124 Lib: 103 Ndp: 29 Blc: 51
Probability: Con: 122.4 Lib: 103.2 Ndp: 30.0 Blc: 51.5

2004:
Actual: Con: 99 Lib: 135 Ndp: 19 Blc: 54
Probability: Con: 93.7 Lib: 134.9 Ndp: 23.0 Blc: 55.4

In 2004 the Conservatives benifitted by the lucky effect a lot, and the NDP was hurt. In this election, the effect was much smaller. In both cases, the liberal totals were about even with probability, while the Conservatives were higher and NDP and BQ lower.

Micky

Canada - On the Reliability of Projections

2006-01-28T15:38:00.000-07:00

2006 National Projected from 2004:
Con: 36.3 Lib: 30.3 Ndp: 17.4 Blc: 10.5
Con: 134 Lib: 93 Ndp: 27 Blc: 53
Con: 133.0 Lib: 92.6 Ndp: 28.0 Blc: 53.4

2006 Regional Projected from 2004:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	34.5	39.9	22.7	0.0
PQ	24.6	20.7	7.5	42.1
ON	35.1	39.9	19.5	0.0
MB/SK	45.7	24.3	24.7	0.0
AB	64.9	15.4	11.6	0.0
BC	37.3	27.9	28.3	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	8	21	3	0	9.5	19.3	3.1	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	12	0	58	4.9	13.2	0.0	57.0	0	21	0	54
ON	39	56	11	0	37.6	56.8	11.6	0.0	24	75	7	0
MB/SK	20	4	4	0	19.7	3.6	4.7	0.0	20	4	4	0
AB	28	0	0	0	27.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	26	2	0	0
BC	21	10	7	0	19.9	9.7	8.4	0.0	22	11	5	0
All	121	103	25	58	119.4	102.7	27.9	57.0	99	135	19	54

Actual:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	9	20	3	0.0
PQ	10	13	0	51
ON	40	54	12	0.0
MB/SK	20	5	3	0
AB	28	0	0	0
BC	17	10	9	0
All	124	103	29	51

Clearly, the national projection wasn't very accurate. It was off by 10 seats. The regional projection was better nationally, although it had big problems in PQ and some problems and BC. It got the liberal seat count right on, while the national model was not close. I will get into the "lucky effect" in the next post.

Canada - More Conservative Seat Rankings

2006-01-23T17:30:00.000-07:00

The last set of seat rankings was based on national numbers. After a question from one of the two top pundits in the country, I have rethought things and think regional numbers would be better. I have also changes the cutoff to 0.5 %, rather than 0.01 % as before. Like before, all that are 100 % probability are #1, all with 0 % are #308, the rest are just ranked. So to win a majority, the most likely way is to win the first 155.

1	NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	1.00
1	ON	Carleton—Lanark	1.00
1	ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	1.00
1	ON	Leeds—Grenville	1.00
1	ON	Oxford	1.00
1	ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	1.00
1	MB	Brandon—Souris	1.00
1	MB	Dauphin—Swan River	1.00
1	MB	Portage—Lisgar	1.00
1	MB	Provencher	1.00
1	SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	1.00
1	SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	1.00
1	SK	Yorkton—Melville	1.00
1	AB	Athabasca	1.00
1	AB	Calgary East	1.00
1	AB	Calgary North Centre	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Northeast	1.00
1	AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	1.00
1	AB	Calgary South Centre	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Southeast	1.00
1	AB	Calgary Southwest	1.00
1	AB	Calgary West	1.00
1	AB	Crowfoot	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Leduc	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	1.00
1	AB	Lethbridge	1.00
1	AB	Macleod	1.00
1	AB	Medicine Hat	1.00
1	AB	Peace River	1.00
1	AB	Red Deer	1.00
1	AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	1.00
1	AB	Westlock—St. Paul	1.00
1	AB	Wetaskiwin	1.00
1	AB	Wild Rose	1.00
1	AB	Yellowhead	1.00
1	BC	Abbotsford	1.00
1	BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	1.00
1	BC	Prince George—Peace River	1.00
1	SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton East	1.00
1	BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	1.00
1	NS	North Nova	1.00
1	BC	Kootenay—Columbia	1.00
1	BC	Langley	1.00
1	ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	1.00
1	SK	Prince Albert	1.00
1	NB	Fundy	1.00
1	ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	1.00
1	ON	York—Simcoe	1.00
1	ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	1.00
1	BC	Kelowna	1.00
1	ON	Perth—Wellington	1.00
1	MB	Selkirk—Interlake	1.00
1	ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	1.00
1	SK	Blackstrap	1.00
1	AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	1.00
1	SK	Churchill River	1.00
1	ON	Nepean—Carleton	1.00
1	BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	1.00
1	ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	1.00
63	BC	Cariboo—Prince George	0.99
64	ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	0.99
65	ON	Dufferin—Caledon	0.99
66	ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	0.99
67	NL	St. John's North	0.99
68	SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	0.99
69	ON	Niagara Falls	0.99
70	BC	Surrey North	0.99
71	ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	0.99
72	ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	0.98
73	ON	Newmarket—Aurora	0.98
74	ON	Cambridge	0.98
75	MB	Charleswood—St. James	0.98
76	MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	0.98
77	ON	Essex	0.98
78	ON	Simcoe—Grey	0.98
79	BC	Delta—Richmond East	0.97
80	ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	0.97
81	ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	0.97
82	ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	0.97
83	AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	0.97
84	BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	0.96
85	AB	Edmonton Centre	0.96
86	BC	Kamloops—Thompson	0.95
87	ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	0.95
88	ON	Barrie	0.95
89	SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	0.94
90	NL	St. John's South	0.94
91	NS	Central Nova	0.93
92	ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	0.92
93	ON	Brant	0.92
94	BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	0.91
95	ON	Ottawa—Orléans	0.91
96	NL	Bonavista—Exploits	0.91
97	SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	0.91
98	ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	0.90
99	ON	St. Catharines	0.89
100	PQ	Pontiac	0.89
101	ON	Simcoe North	0.89
102	ON	Brampton West	0.89
103	PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	0.88
104	NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	0.86
105	BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	0.86
106	ON	Burlington	0.86
107	ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	0.85
108	NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	0.85
109	NB	Saint John	0.83
110	ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	0.82
111	NS	West Nova	0.80
112	BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	0.80
113	SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	0.80
114	ON	Ottawa South	0.77
115	ON	Whitby—Oshawa	0.77
116	BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	0.77
117	BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	0.74
118	ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	0.73
119	SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	0.73
120	ON	Halton	0.73
121	BC	Dewdney—Alouette	0.71
122	NB	Fredericton	0.71
123	ON	Oshawa	0.68
124	SK	Palliser	0.67
125	ON	Peterborough	0.67
126	ON	Sarnia—Lambton	0.67
127	ON	London West	0.53
128	BC	Newton—North Delta	0.52
129	NS	Kings—Hants	0.49
130	BC	Southern Interior	0.49
131	BC	Vancouver Island North	0.44
132	BC	North Vancouver	0.43
133	ON	Ajax—Pickering	0.43
134	ON	London North Centre	0.42
135	MB	Saint Boniface	0.41
136	ON	Hamilton Mountain	0.41
137	ON	Mississauga South	0.40
138	BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	0.39
139	ON	Oakville	0.39
140	ON	Kenora	0.39
141	PE	Malpeque	0.36
142	ON	Welland	0.35
143	NB	Miramichi	0.35
144	PQ	Beauce	0.34
145	ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	0.33
146	ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	0.33
147	MB	Winnipeg South	0.33
148	PE	Cardigan	0.33
149	ON	London—Fanshawe	0.32
150	ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	0.31
151	ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	0.31
152	ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	0.29
153	ON	Huron—Bruce	0.29
154	ON	Guelph	0.29
155	ON	Kitchener Centre	0.25
156	ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	0.25
157	ON	Thornhill	0.25
158	PQ	Portneuf	0.24
159	BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	0.23
160	ON	Brampton—Springdale	0.23
161	PE	Charlottetown	0.23
162	PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	0.22
163	MB	Winnipeg South Centre	0.21
164	BC	Richmond	0.18
165	ON	Mississauga—Erindale	0.16
166	NB	Beauséjour	0.12
167	PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	0.12
168	ON	Hamilton Centre	0.10
169	PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	0.10
170	PE	Egmont	0.10
171	ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	0.09
172	ON	Ottawa—Vanier	0.08
173	BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	0.08
174	PQ	Hull—Aylmer	0.07
175	PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	0.06
176	ON	Don Valley East	0.06
177	ON	Scarborough Southwest	0.06
178	NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	0.05
179	BC	Burnaby—Douglas	0.05
180	NL	Avalon	0.05
181	BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	0.05
182	ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	0.05
183	PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	0.04
184	ON	York Centre	0.04
185	PQ	Louis-Hébert	0.04
186	ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	0.03
187	ON	Sault Ste. Marie	0.03
188	ON	Sudbury	0.03
189	ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	0.03
190	ON	Kingston and the Islands	0.02
191	PQ	Outremont	0.02
192	ON	Etobicoke Centre	0.02
193	BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	0.02
194	ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	0.02
195	PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	0.01
196	ON	Don Valley West	0.01
197	PQ	Beauport	0.01
198	PQ	Gatineau	0.01
199	PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	0.01
200	ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	0.01
201	PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	0.01
202	NS	Halifax West	0.01
203	ON	Richmond Hill	0.01
204	PQ	Laval—Les Îles	0.01
205	NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	0.01
206	ON	Scarborough Centre	0.01
207	BC	Vancouver South	0.01
208	SK	Wascana	0.01
209	BC	Victoria	0.01
210	ON	Nickel Belt	0.01
308	NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	0.00
308	PQ	Charlesbourg	0.00
308	ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	0.00
308	ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	0.00
308	PQ	Compton—Stanstead	0.00
308	ON	Ottawa Centre	0.00
308	PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	0.00
308	NS	Cape Breton—Canso	0.00
308	PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	0.00
308	PQ	Papineau	0.00
308	PQ	Honoré-Mercier	0.00
308	PQ	LaSalle—Émard	0.00
308	PQ	Bourassa	0.00
308	PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	0.00
308	MB	Elmwood—Transcona	0.00
308	PQ	Ahuntsic	0.00
308	PQ	Drummond	0.00
308	NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	0.00
308	ON	Parkdale—High Park	0.00
308	ON	Willowdale	0.00
308	PQ	Québec	0.00
308	PQ	Shefford	0.00
308	ON	St. Paul's	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Quadra	0.00
308	ON	Vaughan	0.00
308	ON	Windsor West	0.00
308	PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	0.00
308	NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	0.00
308	YT	Yukon	0.00
308	PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	0.00
308	PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	0.00
308	ON	Timmins—James Bay	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Centre	0.00
308	NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	0.00
308	NS	Sydney—Victoria	0.00
308	PQ	Alfred-Pellan	0.00
308	PQ	Laval	0.00
308	PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Lambert	0.00
308	ON	Beaches—East York	0.00
308	ON	Markham—Unionville	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	0.00
308	MB	Churchill	0.00
308	NL	Labrador	0.00
308	NS	Halifax	0.00
308	NB	Acadie—Bathurst	0.00
308	PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	0.00
308	PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	0.00
308	PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	0.00
308	PQ	Chambly—Borduas	0.00
308	PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	0.00
308	PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	0.00
308	PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	0.00
308	PQ	Hochelaga	0.00
308	PQ	Joliette	0.00
308	PQ	Jonquière—Alma	0.00
308	PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	0.00
308	PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	0.00
308	PQ	Laurier	0.00
308	PQ	Longueuil	0.00
308	PQ	Manicouagan	0.00
308	PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	0.00
308	PQ	Matapédia—Matane	0.00
308	PQ	Montcalm	0.00
308	PQ	Mount Royal	0.00
308	PQ	Repentigny	0.00
308	PQ	Richelieu	0.00
308	PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	0.00
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	0.00
308	PQ	Roberval	0.00
308	PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Jean	0.00
308	PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	0.00
308	PQ	Sherbrooke	0.00
308	PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	0.00
308	PQ	Trois-Rivières	0.00
308	PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	0.00
308	ON	Davenport	0.00
308	ON	Etobicoke North	0.00
308	ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	0.00
308	ON	Toronto Centre	0.00
308	ON	Toronto—Danforth	0.00
308	ON	Trinity—Spadina	0.00
308	ON	York South—Weston	0.00
308	ON	York West	0.00
308	MB	Winnipeg Centre	0.00
308	MB	Winnipeg North	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver East	0.00
308	BC	Vancouver Kingsway	0.00
308	NW	Western Arctic	0.00
308	NU	Nunavut	0.00

Canada - More Seat Probabilities

2006-01-23T17:27:00.000-07:00

Here are seat probabilities based on the regional numbers in the last Ipsos poll. The Ipsos numbers make sense to me. Like before, A probability of 1 means a 100 % chance of victory, 0.50 means 50 %, and so on.

Province	Riding	Winner	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
NL	Avalon	L	0.05	0.95	0.00	0.00
NL	Bonavista—Exploits	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Labrador	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	N	0.00	0.15	0.85	0.00
NL	St. John's North	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
NL	St. John's South	C	0.94	0.00	0.06	0.00
PE	Cardigan	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
PE	Charlottetown	L	0.23	0.74	0.03	0.00
PE	Egmont	L	0.10	0.90	0.00	0.00
PE	Malpeque	L	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00
NS	Cape Breton—Canso	L	0.00	0.86	0.13	0.00
NS	Central Nova	C	0.93	0.00	0.07	0.00
NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	N	0.01	0.05	0.95	0.00
NS	Halifax	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NS	Halifax West	N	0.01	0.40	0.59	0.00
NS	Kings—Hants	C	0.49	0.48	0.03	0.00
NS	North Nova	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	C	0.85	0.00	0.15	0.00
NS	Sydney—Victoria	L	0.00	0.67	0.33	0.00
NS	West Nova	C	0.80	0.10	0.09	0.00
NB	Acadie—Bathurst	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NB	Beauséjour	L	0.12	0.88	0.00	0.00
NB	Fredericton	C	0.71	0.28	0.01	0.00
NB	Fundy	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	N	0.05	0.25	0.70	0.00
NB	Miramichi	L	0.35	0.62	0.03	0.00
NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Saint John	C	0.83	0.13	0.04	0.00
NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Ahuntsic	B	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.99
PQ	Alfred-Pellan	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauce	B	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.66
PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauport	B	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Bourassa	B	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.83
PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	B	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.96
PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	B	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.98
PQ	Chambly—Borduas	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlesbourg	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Compton—Stanstead	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Drummond	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gatineau	B	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Hochelaga	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Honoré-Mercier	B	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.97
PQ	Hull—Aylmer	B	0.07	0.03	0.00	0.89
PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Joliette	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Jonquière—Alma	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	LaSalle—Émard	L	0.00	0.83	0.00	0.16
PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laurier	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laval	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laval—Les Îles	B	0.01	0.11	0.00	0.89
PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	B	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.88
PQ	Longueuil	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	B	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.78
PQ	Louis-Hébert	B	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.96
PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	C	0.88	0.00	0.00	0.12
PQ	Manicouagan	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Matapédia—Matane	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	B	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Montcalm	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mount Royal	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	L	0.10	0.88	0.00	0.01
PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Outremont	B	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.94
PQ	Papineau	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.99
PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
PQ	Pontiac	C	0.89	0.00	0.00	0.11
PQ	Portneuf	B	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.76
PQ	Québec	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Repentigny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richelieu	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Roberval	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Jean	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Lambert	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Shefford	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Sherbrooke	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Trois-Rivières	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	L	0.06	0.93	0.00	0.00
ON	Ajax—Pickering	L	0.43	0.57	0.00	0.00
ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	N	0.09	0.27	0.64	0.00
ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	C	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.00
ON	Barrie	C	0.95	0.05	0.00	0.00
ON	Beaches—East York	L	0.00	0.67	0.33	0.00
ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton—Springdale	L	0.23	0.77	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton West	C	0.89	0.11	0.00	0.00
ON	Brant	C	0.92	0.07	0.01	0.00
ON	Burlington	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
ON	Cambridge	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Carleton—Lanark	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Davenport	L	0.00	0.72	0.28	0.00
ON	Don Valley East	L	0.06	0.94	0.00	0.00
ON	Don Valley West	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Dufferin—Caledon	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Essex	C	0.98	0.01	0.02	0.00
ON	Etobicoke Centre	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	L	0.25	0.75	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke North	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	C	0.73	0.27	0.00	0.00
ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Guelph	L	0.29	0.70	0.01	0.00
ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Halton	C	0.73	0.27	0.00	0.00
ON	Hamilton Centre	N	0.10	0.00	0.90	0.00
ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	N	0.03	0.05	0.92	0.00
ON	Hamilton Mountain	N	0.41	0.01	0.59	0.00
ON	Huron—Bruce	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
ON	Kenora	N	0.39	0.02	0.59	0.00
ON	Kingston and the Islands	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener Centre	L	0.25	0.75	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	C	0.85	0.15	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	L	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.00
ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Leeds—Grenville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	London—Fanshawe	N	0.32	0.12	0.56	0.00
ON	London North Centre	L	0.42	0.52	0.05	0.00
ON	London West	C	0.53	0.46	0.00	0.00
ON	Markham—Unionville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Erindale	L	0.16	0.84	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga South	L	0.40	0.60	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	L	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.00
ON	Nepean—Carleton	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Newmarket—Aurora	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara Falls	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Nickel Belt	N	0.01	0.26	0.74	0.00
ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	C	0.90	0.10	0.00	0.00
ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
ON	Oakville	L	0.39	0.61	0.00	0.00
ON	Oshawa	C	0.68	0.00	0.32	0.00
ON	Ottawa Centre	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Orléans	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa South	C	0.77	0.23	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Vanier	L	0.08	0.92	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	C	0.95	0.05	0.00	0.00
ON	Oxford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Parkdale—High Park	N	0.00	0.26	0.74	0.00
ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	C	0.82	0.18	0.00	0.00
ON	Perth—Wellington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Peterborough	C	0.67	0.33	0.00	0.00
ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	L	0.03	0.97	0.00	0.00
ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Richmond Hill	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Catharines	C	0.89	0.10	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Paul's	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sarnia—Lambton	C	0.67	0.33	0.00	0.00
ON	Sault Ste. Marie	N	0.03	0.01	0.95	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Centre	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Southwest	L	0.06	0.94	0.01	0.00
ON	Simcoe—Grey	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Simcoe North	C	0.89	0.11	0.00	0.00
ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sudbury	L	0.03	0.60	0.37	0.00
ON	Thornhill	L	0.25	0.75	0.00	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	N	0.33	0.19	0.47	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	L	0.05	0.56	0.40	0.00
ON	Timmins—James Bay	N	0.00	0.03	0.97	0.00
ON	Toronto Centre	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Toronto—Danforth	N	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00
ON	Trinity—Spadina	N	0.00	0.07	0.93	0.00
ON	Vaughan	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Welland	N	0.35	0.21	0.44	0.00
ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Whitby—Oshawa	C	0.77	0.23	0.00	0.00
ON	Willowdale	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	N	0.00	0.00	0.99	0.00
ON	Windsor West	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
ON	York Centre	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
ON	York—Simcoe	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York South—Weston	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York West	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Brandon—Souris	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Charleswood—St. James	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
MB	Churchill	N	0.00	0.02	0.98	0.00
MB	Dauphin—Swan River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Elmwood—Transcona	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
MB	Portage—Lisgar	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Provencher	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Saint Boniface	L	0.41	0.59	0.00	0.00
MB	Selkirk—Interlake	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg Centre	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg North	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South Centre	L	0.21	0.78	0.00	0.00
SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Blackstrap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Churchill River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Palliser	C	0.67	0.00	0.33	0.00
SK	Prince Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	C	0.91	0.01	0.08	0.00
SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	C	0.80	0.00	0.20	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	C	0.73	0.00	0.27	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	C	0.94	0.00	0.06	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	C	0.99	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Wascana	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
SK	Yorkton—Melville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Athabasca	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary North Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Northeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary South Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southwest	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary West	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Crowfoot	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton Centre	C	0.96	0.04	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Leduc	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Lethbridge	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Macleod	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Medicine Hat	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Red Deer	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Westlock—St. Paul	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wetaskiwin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wild Rose	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Yellowhead	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Abbotsford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Burnaby—Douglas	N	0.05	0.16	0.79	0.00
BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	N	0.08	0.19	0.74	0.00
BC	Cariboo—Prince George	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Delta—Richmond East	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
BC	Dewdney—Alouette	C	0.71	0.00	0.29	0.00
BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	L	0.02	0.53	0.45	0.00
BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	C	0.80	0.06	0.15	0.00
BC	Kamloops—Thompson	C	0.95	0.01	0.03	0.00
BC	Kelowna	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Kootenay—Columbia	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Langley	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	C	0.74	0.00	0.26	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	N	0.05	0.00	0.95	0.00
BC	Newton—North Delta	C	0.52	0.17	0.30	0.00
BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	N	0.39	0.02	0.59	0.00
BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	North Vancouver	L	0.43	0.57	0.00	0.00
BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	C	0.96	0.01	0.03	0.00
BC	Prince George—Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Richmond	L	0.18	0.82	0.00	0.00
BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	C	0.91	0.05	0.03	0.00
BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	N	0.23	0.00	0.77	0.00
BC	Southern Interior	N	0.49	0.00	0.51	0.00
BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
BC	Surrey North	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Vancouver Centre	L	0.00	0.71	0.29	0.00
BC	Vancouver East	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver Island North	N	0.44	0.00	0.56	0.00
BC	Vancouver Kingsway	N	0.00	0.45	0.55	0.00
BC	Vancouver Quadra	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver South	L	0.01	0.98	0.01	0.00
BC	Victoria	N	0.01	0.49	0.50	0.00
BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	C	0.77	0.22	0.01	0.00
YT	Yukon	L	0.00	0.99	0.01	0.00
NW	Western Arctic	N	0.00	0.32	0.68	0.00
NU	Nunavut	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Total		133.7	73.7	36.8	63.9

Canada - Conservative Seat Rankings

2006-01-22T23:09:00.000-07:00

Here is a ranking of ridings based on the probability the conservatives will win it. All that are 100 % probability are #1, all with 0 % are #308, the rest are just ranked. So to win a majority, the most likely way is to win the first 155.

1	NS	North Nova
1	NB	St. Croix-Belleisle
1	ON	Carleton-Lanark
1	ON	Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
1	ON	Leeds-Grenville
1	ON	Oxford
1	ON	Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
1	MB	Brandon-Souris
1	MB	Dauphin-Swan River
1	MB	Portage-Lisgar
1	MB	Provencher
1	SK	Battlefords-Lloydminster
1	SK	Cypress Hills-Grasslands
1	SK	Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
1	SK	Yorkton-Melville
1	AB	Athabasca
1	AB	Calgary East
1	AB	Calgary North Centre
1	AB	Calgary Northeast
1	AB	Calgary-Nose Hill
1	AB	Calgary South Centre
1	AB	Calgary Southeast
1	AB	Calgary Southwest
1	AB	Calgary West
1	AB	Crowfoot
1	AB	Edmonton East
1	AB	Edmonton-Leduc
1	AB	Edmonton-St. Albert
1	AB	Edmonton-Sherwood Park
1	AB	Edmonton-Spruce Grove
1	AB	Lethbridge
1	AB	Macleod
1	AB	Medicine Hat
1	AB	Peace River
1	AB	Red Deer
1	AB	Vegreville-Wainwright
1	AB	Westlock-St. Paul
1	AB	Wetaskiwin
1	AB	Wild Rose
1	AB	Yellowhead
1	BC	Abbotsford
1	BC	Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
1	BC	Kelowna
1	BC	Kootenay-Columbia
1	BC	Langley
1	BC	Okanagan-Coquihalla
1	BC	Prince George-Peace River
48	BC	Delta-Richmond East
49	NB	Fundy
50	ON	Elgin-Middlesex-London
51	SK	Prince Albert
52	ON	Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound
53	ON	Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
54	ON	York-Simcoe
55	BC	North Okanagan-Shuswap
56	ON	Perth-Wellington
57	MB	Selkirk-Interlake
58	BC	Cariboo-Prince George
59	ON	Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
60	SK	Blackstrap
61	SK	Churchill River
62	BC	South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
63	ON	Nepean-Carleton
64	NL	St. John's North
65	ON	Prince Edward-Hastings
66	AB	Edmonton-Strathcona
67	NL	St. John's South
68	NS	Central Nova
69	ON	Wellington-Halton Hills
70	ON	Dufferin-Caledon
71	ON	Haldimand-Norfolk
72	BC	Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
73	ON	Niagara Falls
74	BC	Kamloops-Thompson
75	ON	Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge
76	BC	West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
77	MB	Charleswood-St. James
78	BC	Saanich-Gulf Islands
79	BC	Surrey North
80	SK	Souris-Moose Mountain
81	ON	Niagara West-Glanbrook
82	MB	Kildonan-St. Paul
83	ON	Newmarket-Aurora
84	ON	Cambridge
85	NS	South Shore-St. Margaret's
86	ON	Essex
87	ON	Simcoe-Grey
88	AB	Edmonton-Beaumont
89	ON	Middlesex-Kent-Lambton
90	ON	Northumberland-Quinte West
91	ON	Chatham-Kent-Essex
92	AB	Edmonton Centre
93	ON	Ottawa West-Nepean
94	ON	Barrie
95	SK	Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
96	BC	Fleetwood-Port Kells
97	BC	North Vancouver
98	ON	Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
99	ON	Brant
100	SK	Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
101	ON	Ottawa-Orléans
102	ON	Nipissing-Timiskaming
103	BC	Nanaimo-Alberni
104	ON	St. Catharines
105	ON	Simcoe North
106	ON	Brampton West
107	BC	Dewdney-Alouette
108	NL	Bonavista-Exploits
109	ON	Burlington
110	ON	Kitchener-Conestoga
111	ON	Parry Sound-Muskoka
112	BC	Newton-North Delta
113	SK	Regina-Qu'Appelle
114	NB	Tobique-Mactaquac
115	ON	Ottawa South
116	ON	Whitby-Oshawa
117	NS	West Nova
118	BC	Richmond
119	NB	Saint John
120	SK	Saskatoon-Humboldt
121	ON	Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
122	ON	Halton
123	BC	Southern Interior
124	ON	Oshawa
125	BC	Vancouver Island North
126	PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent
127	SK	Palliser
128	ON	Peterborough
129	BC	New Westminster-Coquitlam
130	ON	Sarnia-Lambton
131	NB	Fredericton
132	ON	London West
133	BC	Skeena-Bulkley Valley
134	MB	Saint Boniface
135	ON	Hamilton Mountain
136	ON	London North Centre
137	ON	Kenora
138	ON	Ajax-Pickering
139	PQ	Pontiac
140	NS	Kings-Hants
141	ON	Mississauga South
142	ON	Welland
143	ON	Oakville
144	ON	Thunder Bay-Rainy River
145	MB	Winnipeg South
146	ON	London-Fanshawe
147	BC	Burnaby-New Westminster
148	ON	Oak Ridges-Markham
149	ON	Mississauga-Streetsville
150	ON	Kitchener-Waterloo
151	ON	Guelph
152	ON	Bramalea-Gore-Malton
153	ON	Huron-Bruce
154	BC	Burnaby-Douglas
155	NB	Miramichi
156	BC	Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
157	PE	Malpeque
158	ON	Kitchener Centre
159	MB	Winnipeg South Centre
160	ON	Thornhill
161	ON	Etobicoke-Lakeshore
162	PE	Cardigan
163	BC	Vancouver South
164	ON	Brampton-Springdale
165	PE	Charlottetown
166	ON	Mississauga-Erindale
167	BC	Nanaimo-Cowichan
168	BC	Victoria
169	NB	Madawaska-Restigouche
170	ON	Hamilton Centre
171	ON	Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
172	NB	Beauséjour
173	ON	Ottawa-Vanier
174	PQ	Portneuf
175	PQ	Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
176	BC	Vancouver Quadra
177	PE	Egmont
178	ON	Thunder Bay-Superior North
179	ON	Don Valley East
180	ON	Scarborough Southwest
181	YT	Yukon
182	ON	Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
183	NS	Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
184	ON	Sault Ste. Marie
185	ON	Sudbury
186	ON	York Centre
187	ON	Pickering-Scarborough East
188	NL	Avalon
189	BC	Vancouver Centre
190	ON	Kingston and the Islands
191	PQ	Lévis-Bellechasse
192	NS	Halifax West
193	ON	Etobicoke Centre
194	PQ	Beauce
195	ON	Mississauga East-Cooksville
196	ON	Don Valley West
197	SK	Wascana
198	ON	Mississauga-Brampton South
199	ON	Nickel Belt
200	ON	Richmond Hill
201	ON	Scarborough Centre
202	ON	Windsor-Tecumseh
203	NS	Cape Breton-Canso
204	ON	Ottawa Centre
205	ON	Scarborough-Guildwood
206	ON	Eglinton-Lawrence
207	NB	Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
208	NL	Random-Burin-St. George's
209	NS	Sackville-Eastern Shore
210	PQ	Louis-Hébert
211	ON	Parkdale-High Park
212	MB	Elmwood-Transcona
213	BC	Vancouver Kingsway
214	NW	Western Arctic
215	PQ	Beauport
216	NU	Nunavut
217	ON	Willowdale
218	ON	St. Paul's
219	ON	Windsor West
220	ON	Vaughan
221	NL	Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
222	PQ	Charlesbourg
223	NS	Sydney-Victoria
224	ON	Timmins-James Bay
225	PQ	Brome-Missisquoi
226	PQ	Hull-Aylmer
227	ON	Beaches-East York
228	NS	Halifax
229	PQ	Drummond
230	PQ	Mégantic-L'Érable
231	ON	Scarborough-Agincourt
232	PQ	Compton-Stanstead
233	PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
234	PQ	Québec
235	ON	Etobicoke North
236	ON	Markham-Unionville
237	ON	Scarborough-Rouge River
238	ON	Toronto Centre
239	MB	Churchill
308	NL	Labrador
308	NB	Acadie-Bathurst
308	PQ	Abitibi-Témiscamingue
308	PQ	Ahuntsic
308	PQ	Alfred-Pellan
308	PQ	Argenteuil-Mirabel
308	PQ	Beauharnois-Salaberry
308	PQ	Berthier-Maskinongé
308	PQ	Bourassa
308	PQ	Brossard-La Prairie
308	PQ	Chambly-Borduas
308	PQ	Charlevoix-Montmorency
308	PQ	Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
308	PQ	Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
308	PQ	Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
308	PQ	Gatineau
308	PQ	Hochelaga
308	PQ	Honoré-Mercier
308	PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber
308	PQ	Joliette
308	PQ	Jonquière-Alma
308	PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis
308	PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île
308	PQ	LaSalle-Émard
308	PQ	Laurentides-Labelle
308	PQ	Laurier
308	PQ	Laval
308	PQ	Laval-Les Îles
308	PQ	Longueuil
308	PQ	Manicouagan
308	PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
308	PQ	Matapédia-Matane
308	PQ	Montcalm
308	PQ	Mount Royal
308	PQ	Nunavik-Eeyou
308	PQ	Outremont
308	PQ	Papineau
308	PQ	Pierrefonds-Dollard
308	PQ	Repentigny
308	PQ	Richelieu
308	PQ	Richmond-Arthabaska
308	PQ	Rimouski-Témiscouata
308	PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Loup-Montmagny
308	PQ	Rivière-du-Nord
308	PQ	Roberval
308	PQ	Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
308	PQ	Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
308	PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
308	PQ	Saint-Jean
308	PQ	Saint-Lambert
308	PQ	Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
308	PQ	Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
308	PQ	Saint-Maurice-Champlain
308	PQ	Shefford
308	PQ	Sherbrooke
308	PQ	Terrebonne-Blainville
308	PQ	Trois-Rivières
308	PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges
308	PQ	Verchères-Les Patriotes
308	PQ	Westmount-Ville-Marie
308	ON	Davenport
308	ON	Toronto-Danforth
308	ON	Trinity-Spadina
308	ON	York South-Weston
308	ON	York West
308	MB	Winnipeg Centre
308	MB	Winnipeg North
308	BC	Vancouver East

Canada - January 21, 2006

2006-01-21T16:38:00.000-07:00

Average Jan. 20
Con: 36.8 Lib: 27.8 Ndp: 18.6 Blc: 11.2
Con: 140 Lib: 80 Ndp: 30 Blc: 58
Con: 140.9 Lib: 77.6 Ndp: 31.9 Blc: 57.6

Strategic Vision Jan. 20:
Con: 37.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 143 Lib: 76 Ndp: 31 Blc: 58
Con: 143.3 Lib: 74.1 Ndp: 33.0 Blc: 57.6

Ekos Jan. 20:
Con: 37.1 Lib: 26.9 Ndp: 19.5 Blc: 11.5
Con: 141 Lib: 72 Ndp: 34 Blc: 61
Con: 143.0 Lib: 71.7 Ndp: 34.0 Blc: 59.3

SES Jan. 20:
Con: 36.2 Lib: 29.4 Ndp: 17.3 Blc: 11.0
Con: 137 Lib: 88 Ndp: 27 Blc: 56
Con: 136.0 Lib: 87.5 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 55.9

SES Regional Jan. 20:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	34.0	34.0	27.0	0.0
PQ	27.0	18.0	9.0	44.0
ON	35.0	39.0	17.0	0.0
West	45.0	27.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	12	15	5	0	11.8	15.2	5.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	9	0	61	5.8	10.1	0.0	59.1	0	21	0	54
ON	41	56	9	0	39.7	56.2	10.1	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	65	17	13	0	63.1	18.9	13.0	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	123	97	27	61	120.4	100.3	28.1	59.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - Seat Probabilities

2006-01-21T11:49:00.000-07:00

Based on national average of the January 21, 2006 post. These don't take into account any localized or regional trends. A probability of 1 means a 100 % chance of victory, 0.50 means 50 %, and so on.

Province	Riding	Winner	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
NL	Avalon	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
NL	Bonavista—Exploits	C	0.89	0.11	0.00	0.00
NL	Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Labrador	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NL	Random—Burin—St. George's	L	0.00	0.59	0.40	0.00
NL	St. John's North	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NL	St. John's South	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PE	Cardigan	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
PE	Charlottetown	L	0.23	0.77	0.00	0.00
PE	Egmont	L	0.09	0.91	0.00	0.00
PE	Malpeque	L	0.33	0.67	0.00	0.00
NS	Cape Breton—Canso	L	0.01	0.99	0.01	0.00
NS	Central Nova	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NS	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	N	0.06	0.35	0.59	0.00
NS	Halifax	N	0.00	0.03	0.97	0.00
NS	Halifax West	L	0.03	0.86	0.11	0.00
NS	Kings—Hants	L	0.47	0.53	0.00	0.00
NS	North Nova	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NS	Sackville—Eastern Shore	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NS	South Shore—St. Margaret's	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
NS	Sydney—Victoria	L	0.00	0.96	0.04	0.00
NS	West Nova	C	0.81	0.19	0.00	0.00
NB	Acadie—Bathurst	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
NB	Beauséjour	L	0.11	0.89	0.00	0.00
NB	Fredericton	C	0.66	0.34	0.00	0.00
NB	Fundy	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Madawaska—Restigouche	L	0.18	0.69	0.13	0.00
NB	Miramichi	L	0.34	0.66	0.00	0.00
NB	Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
NB	St. Croix—Belleisle	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NB	Saint John	C	0.80	0.20	0.00	0.00
NB	Tobique—Mactaquac	C	0.84	0.16	0.00	0.00
PQ	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Ahuntsic	B	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.58
PQ	Alfred-Pellan	B	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.96
PQ	Argenteuil—Mirabel	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauce	L	0.03	0.54	0.00	0.43
PQ	Beauharnois—Salaberry	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Beauport	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Berthier—Maskinongé	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Bourassa	L	0.00	0.86	0.00	0.14
PQ	Brome—Missisquoi	B	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.59
PQ	Brossard—La Prairie	L	0.00	0.54	0.00	0.46
PQ	Chambly—Borduas	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlesbourg	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Charlevoix—Montmorency	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Châteauguay—Saint-Constant	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	B	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.78
PQ	Compton—Stanstead	B	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.98
PQ	Drummond	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Gatineau	B	0.00	0.37	0.00	0.63
PQ	Hochelaga	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Honoré-Mercier	L	0.00	0.59	0.00	0.41
PQ	Hull—Aylmer	L	0.00	0.77	0.00	0.23
PQ	Jeanne-Le Ber	B	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.66
PQ	Joliette	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Jonquière—Alma	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lac-Saint-Louis	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	La Pointe-de-l'Île	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	LaSalle—Émard	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Laurentides—Labelle	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laurier	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Laval	B	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.99
PQ	Laval—Les Îles	L	0.00	0.81	0.00	0.19
PQ	Lévis—Bellechasse	B	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.97
PQ	Longueuil	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	B	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.91
PQ	Louis-Hébert	B	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.97
PQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent	C	0.74	0.00	0.00	0.26
PQ	Manicouagan	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Matapédia—Matane	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mégantic—L'Érable	B	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.97
PQ	Montcalm	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Mount Royal	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Nunavik—Eeyou	B	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.77
PQ	Outremont	L	0.00	0.71	0.00	0.29
PQ	Papineau	B	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.67
PQ	Pierrefonds—Dollard	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Pontiac	C	0.47	0.44	0.00	0.09
PQ	Portneuf	B	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.90
PQ	Québec	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Repentigny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richelieu	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Richmond—Arthabaska	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rimouski—Témiscouata	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Loup—Montmagny	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rivière-du-Nord	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Roberval	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Jean	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Saint-Lambert	B	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.98
PQ	Saint-Laurent—Cartierville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
PQ	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Shefford	B	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.93
PQ	Sherbrooke	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Terrebonne—Blainville	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Trois-Rivières	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Vaudreuil-Soulanges	B	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.90
PQ	Verchères—Les Patriotes	B	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00
PQ	Westmount—Ville-Marie	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Ajax—Pickering	L	0.48	0.52	0.00	0.00
ON	Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	N	0.15	0.28	0.57	0.00
ON	Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	C	0.94	0.06	0.00	0.00
ON	Barrie	C	0.96	0.04	0.00	0.00
ON	Beaches—East York	L	0.00	0.70	0.30	0.00
ON	Bramalea—Gore—Malton	L	0.35	0.65	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton—Springdale	L	0.29	0.71	0.00	0.00
ON	Brampton West	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
ON	Brant	C	0.94	0.06	0.01	0.00
ON	Burlington	C	0.88	0.12	0.00	0.00
ON	Cambridge	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Carleton—Lanark	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Chatham-Kent—Essex	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Davenport	L	0.00	0.75	0.25	0.00
ON	Don Valley East	L	0.08	0.92	0.00	0.00
ON	Don Valley West	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Dufferin—Caledon	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Eglinton—Lawrence	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Elgin—Middlesex—London	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Essex	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
ON	Etobicoke Centre	L	0.03	0.97	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	L	0.30	0.70	0.00	0.00
ON	Etobicoke North	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	C	0.78	0.22	0.00	0.00
ON	Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Guelph	L	0.36	0.64	0.01	0.00
ON	Haldimand—Norfolk	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Halton	C	0.78	0.22	0.00	0.00
ON	Hamilton Centre	N	0.15	0.00	0.85	0.00
ON	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	N	0.06	0.05	0.89	0.00
ON	Hamilton Mountain	C	0.51	0.01	0.49	0.00
ON	Huron—Bruce	L	0.35	0.65	0.00	0.00
ON	Kenora	C	0.50	0.02	0.48	0.00
ON	Kingston and the Islands	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener Centre	L	0.31	0.69	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Conestoga	C	0.88	0.12	0.00	0.00
ON	Kitchener—Waterloo	L	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00
ON	Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Leeds—Grenville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	London—Fanshawe	N	0.43	0.11	0.46	0.00
ON	London North Centre	C	0.50	0.47	0.03	0.00
ON	London West	C	0.60	0.40	0.00	0.00
ON	Markham—Unionville	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Middlesex—Kent—Lambton	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Brampton South	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga East—Cooksville	L	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Erindale	L	0.20	0.80	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga South	L	0.46	0.54	0.00	0.00
ON	Mississauga—Streetsville	L	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00
ON	Nepean—Carleton	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Newmarket—Aurora	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara Falls	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Niagara West—Glanbrook	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
ON	Nickel Belt	N	0.01	0.28	0.70	0.00
ON	Nipissing—Timiskaming	C	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.00
ON	Northumberland—Quinte West	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Oak Ridges—Markham	L	0.39	0.61	0.00	0.00
ON	Oakville	L	0.45	0.55	0.00	0.00
ON	Oshawa	C	0.76	0.00	0.24	0.00
ON	Ottawa Centre	N	0.01	0.00	0.99	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Orléans	C	0.93	0.07	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa South	C	0.82	0.18	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa—Vanier	L	0.11	0.89	0.00	0.00
ON	Ottawa West—Nepean	C	0.96	0.04	0.00	0.00
ON	Oxford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Parkdale—High Park	N	0.00	0.29	0.71	0.00
ON	Parry Sound—Muskoka	C	0.86	0.14	0.00	0.00
ON	Perth—Wellington	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Peterborough	C	0.72	0.28	0.00	0.00
ON	Pickering—Scarborough East	L	0.04	0.96	0.00	0.00
ON	Prince Edward—Hastings	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Richmond Hill	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Catharines	C	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.00
ON	St. Paul's	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sarnia—Lambton	C	0.72	0.28	0.00	0.00
ON	Sault Ste. Marie	N	0.06	0.01	0.93	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Agincourt	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Centre	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Guildwood	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough—Rouge River	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Scarborough Southwest	L	0.08	0.91	0.01	0.00
ON	Simcoe—Grey	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
ON	Simcoe North	C	0.91	0.09	0.00	0.00
ON	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Sudbury	L	0.06	0.62	0.32	0.00
ON	Thornhill	L	0.30	0.70	0.00	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Rainy River	C	0.44	0.18	0.38	0.00
ON	Thunder Bay—Superior North	L	0.08	0.58	0.34	0.00
ON	Timmins—James Bay	N	0.00	0.03	0.97	0.00
ON	Toronto Centre	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Toronto—Danforth	N	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00
ON	Trinity—Spadina	N	0.00	0.09	0.91	0.00
ON	Vaughan	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Welland	C	0.46	0.20	0.35	0.00
ON	Wellington—Halton Hills	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Whitby—Oshawa	C	0.82	0.18	0.00	0.00
ON	Willowdale	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	Windsor—Tecumseh	N	0.01	0.00	0.99	0.00
ON	Windsor West	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
ON	York Centre	L	0.05	0.95	0.00	0.00
ON	York—Simcoe	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York South—Weston	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
ON	York West	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Brandon—Souris	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Charleswood—St. James	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
MB	Churchill	N	0.00	0.01	0.99	0.00
MB	Dauphin—Swan River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Elmwood—Transcona	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Kildonan—St. Paul	C	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.00
MB	Portage—Lisgar	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Provencher	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Saint Boniface	C	0.52	0.48	0.00	0.00
MB	Selkirk—Interlake	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg Centre	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg North	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South	L	0.43	0.57	0.00	0.00
MB	Winnipeg South Centre	L	0.30	0.69	0.00	0.00
SK	Battlefords—Lloydminster	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Blackstrap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Churchill River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Cypress Hills—Grasslands	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Palliser	C	0.73	0.00	0.27	0.00
SK	Prince Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre	C	0.93	0.00	0.06	0.00
SK	Regina—Qu'Appelle	C	0.84	0.00	0.16	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Humboldt	C	0.79	0.00	0.21	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar	C	0.96	0.00	0.04	0.00
SK	Saskatoon—Wanuskewin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Souris—Moose Mountain	C	0.99	0.00	0.00	0.00
SK	Wascana	L	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.00
SK	Yorkton—Melville	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Athabasca	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary North Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Northeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary—Nose Hill	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary South Centre	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southeast	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary Southwest	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Calgary West	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Crowfoot	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Beaumont	C	0.98	0.02	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton Centre	C	0.97	0.03	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Leduc	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—St. Albert	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Sherwood Park	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Spruce Grove	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Edmonton—Strathcona	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Lethbridge	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Macleod	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Medicine Hat	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Red Deer	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Vegreville—Wainwright	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Westlock—St. Paul	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wetaskiwin	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Wild Rose	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AB	Yellowhead	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Abbotsford	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Burnaby—Douglas	N	0.34	0.00	0.65	0.00
BC	Burnaby—New Westminster	N	0.42	0.00	0.58	0.00
BC	Cariboo—Prince George	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Delta—Richmond East	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Dewdney—Alouette	C	0.91	0.00	0.09	0.00
BC	Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca	N	0.34	0.06	0.61	0.00
BC	Fleetwood—Port Kells	C	0.95	0.00	0.05	0.00
BC	Kamloops—Thompson	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Kelowna	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Kootenay—Columbia	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Langley	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Alberni	C	0.92	0.00	0.08	0.00
BC	Nanaimo—Cowichan	N	0.20	0.00	0.80	0.00
BC	Newton—North Delta	C	0.86	0.00	0.14	0.00
BC	New Westminster—Coquitlam	C	0.72	0.00	0.28	0.00
BC	North Okanagan—Shuswap	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	North Vancouver	C	0.95	0.05	0.00	0.00
BC	Okanagan—Coquihalla	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Prince George—Peace River	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Richmond	C	0.81	0.19	0.00	0.00
BC	Saanich—Gulf Islands	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Skeena—Bulkley Valley	C	0.53	0.00	0.47	0.00
BC	Southern Interior	C	0.77	0.00	0.23	0.00
BC	South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale	C	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BC	Surrey North	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
BC	Vancouver Centre	N	0.04	0.27	0.69	0.00
BC	Vancouver East	N	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver Island North	C	0.74	0.00	0.26	0.00
BC	Vancouver Kingsway	N	0.00	0.11	0.89	0.00
BC	Vancouver Quadra	L	0.09	0.91	0.00	0.00
BC	Vancouver South	L	0.29	0.67	0.04	0.00
BC	Victoria	N	0.19	0.06	0.75	0.00
BC	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast	C	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00
YT	Yukon	L	0.06	0.86	0.08	0.00
NW	Western Arctic	N	0.00	0.05	0.94	0.00
NU	Nunavut	L	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
	Total		140.9	77.6	31.9	57.6

Canada - January 20, 2006

2006-01-21T11:19:00.000-07:00

Ipsos Jan. 19
Con: 38.0 Lib: 26.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 11.7
Con: 151 Lib: 65 Ndp: 31 Blc: 61
Con: 149.3 Lib: 65.8 Ndp: 32.5 Blc: 60.5
Ipsos says Con: 143-147 Lib: 59-63 NDP: 39-43 Blc: 59-63

Strategic Vision Jan. 19
Con: 38.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 147 Lib: 76 Ndp: 27 Blc: 58
Con: 146.9 Lib: 77.1 Ndp: 27.3 Blc: 56.7

Ekos Jan. 19
Con: 37.4 Lib: 27.3 Ndp: 20.8 Blc: 10.1
Con: 139 Lib: 78 Ndp: 38 Blc: 53
Con: 142.4 Lib: 75.7 Ndp: 35.9 Blc: 54.1

SES Jan. 19
Con: 35.5 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 18.8 Blc: 11.1
Con: 130 Lib: 84 Ndp: 35 Blc: 58
Con: 131.7 Lib: 86.0 Ndp: 32.6 Blc: 56.6

SES Regional Jan. 19

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	41.0	31.0	23.0	0.0
PQ	26.0	18.0	9.0	44.0
ON	36.0	39.0	19.0	0.0
West	41.0	28.0	25.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	18	10	4	0	18.1	9.9	4.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	9	0	61	5.2	10.2	0.0	59.6	0	21	0	54
ON	41	54	11	0	41.2	53.2	11.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	54	19	22	0	544	20.7	19.8	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	118	92	37	61	118.9	94.1	35.3	59.6	99	135	19	54

Average Jan. 19
Con: 37.2 Lib: 27.6 Ndp: 18.9 Blc: 11.0
Con: 141 Lib: 79 Ndp: 30 Blc: 58
Con: 142.8 Lib: 76.0 Ndp: 32.1 Blc: 57.0

So at this point, it looks like a conservative minority.

Canada - January 19, 2006

2006-01-19T18:00:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 18
Con: 37.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 142 Lib: 79 Ndp: 25 Blc: 61
Con: 142.6 Lib: 77.7 Ndp: 26.5 Blc: 60.2

Ekos Jan. 18
Con: 35.1 Lib: 29.3 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 12.6
Con: 129 Lib: 83 Ndp: 33 Blc: 63
Con: 130.8 Lib: 84.7 Ndp: 31.2 Blc: 61.3

SES Jan. 18
Con: 37.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 136 Lib: 96 Ndp: 23 Blc: 53
Con: 135.1 Lib: 92.6 Ndp: 25.8 Blc: 54.5

SES Regional Jan. 18

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	47.0	37.0	14.0	0.0
PQ	24.0	19.0	10.0	44.0
ON	40.0	39.0	15.0	0.0
West	41.0	30.0	24.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	20	10	2	0	19.4	10.7	1.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	3	10	0	62	4.1	11.0	0.0	59.9	0	21	0	54
ON	50	47	9	0	50.6	48.0	7.4	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	53	24	18	0	53.4	24.4	17.0	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	126	91	29	62	127.5	94.2	26.3	59.9	99	135	19	54

Average Jan. 18
Con: 36.7 Lib: 29.4 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.9
Con: 138 Lib: 83 Ndp: 26 Blc: 60
Con: 136.6 Lib: 84.1 Ndp: 27.5 Blc: 58.8

Canada - January 18, 2006

2006-01-19T17:59:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 17
Con: 41.0 Lib: 25.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 170 Lib: 51 Ndp: 24 Blc: 63
Con: 165.4 Lib: 55.2 Ndp: 25.9 Blc: 61.5

Ekos Jan. 17
Con: 36.9 Lib: 27.2 Ndp: 19.6 Blc: 11.0
Con: 138 Lib: 78 Ndp: 34 Blc: 58
Con: 141.7 Lib: 74.7 Ndp: 34.2 Blc: 57.5

SES Jan. 17
Con: 36.9 Lib: 31.5 Ndp: 17.6 Blc: 10.0
Con: 134 Lib: 99 Ndp: 24 Blc: 51
Con: 133.3 Lib: 97.5 Ndp: 26.5 Blc: 50.7

SES Regional Jan. 17

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	44.0	38.0	17.0	0.0
PQ	23.0	20.0	12.0	41.0
ON	40.0	39.0	15.0	0.0
West	41.0	31.0	24.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	15	14	3	0	16.2	13.4	2.4	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	5	12	0	58	4.5	13.5	0.1	56.9	0	21	0	54
ON	50	47	9	0	50.6	48.0	7.4	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	52	27	16	0	52.6	26.0	16.3	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	122	100	28	58	123.9	100.9	26.2	56.9	99	135	19	54

Average Jan. 17
Con: 38.3 Lib: 27.9 Ndp: 18.1 Blc: 11.0
Con: 146 Lib: 75 Ndp: 28 Blc: 58
Con: 146.0 Lib: 75.2 Ndp: 29.1 Blc: 56.7

Canada - January 17, 2006

2006-01-17T20:51:00.001-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 16
Con: 42.0 Lib: 24.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 174 Lib: 47 Ndp: 23 Blc: 64
Con: 171.4 Lib: 49.5 Ndp: 25.2 Blc: 61.8

SES Jan. 16
Con: 37.0 Lib: 30.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 137 Lib: 93 Ndp: 27 Blc: 51
Con: 137.2 Lib: 90.4 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 51.8

SES Regional Jan. 16

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	39.0	35.0	26.0	0.0
PQ	22.0	20.0	12.0	44.0
ON	38.0	34.0	23.0	0.0
West	45.0	30.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	13	15	4	0	14.2	13.5	4.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	11	0	62	3.2	11.8	0.0	59.9	0	21	0	54
ON	49	38	19	0	51.9	37.1	17.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	63	26	6	0	61.5	24.1	9.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	127	90	29	62	130.8	86.5	30.7	59.9	99	135	19	54

Ekos Jan. 16
Con: 35.8 Lib: 29.6 Ndp: 19.4 Blc: 11.6
Con: 131 Lib: 84 Ndp: 35 Blc: 58
Con: 131.5 Lib: 85.7 Ndp: 33.0 Blc: 57.8

Ipsos Jan. 16
Con: 38.0 Lib: 26.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 12.6
Con: 151 Lib: 62 Ndp: 31 Blc: 64
Con: 148.8 Lib: 63.8 Ndp: 32.5 Blc: 62.9

The Ipsos poll was of 8256 voters, which is a huge number. I would think it is an accurate poll. They say their seat model gives Con: 149-153 Lib: 64-68 Ndp: 29-33 Blc: 57-61. My understanding is it uses many regions, so it is likely relatively good.

Canada - January 16, 2006

2006-01-17T20:51:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 15
Con: 40.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 163 Lib: 63 Ndp: 24 Blc: 58
Con: 158.2 Lib: 68.4 Ndp: 24.2 Blc: 57.2

SES Jan. 15
Con: 37.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 138 Lib: 85 Ndp: 29 Blc: 56
Con: 139.3 Lib: 83.1 Ndp: 29.4 Blc: 56.1

Ekos Jan. 15
Con: 38.6 Lib: 27.2 Ndp: 18.6 Blc: 10.6
Con: 148 Lib: 75 Ndp: 28 Blc: 57
Con: 149.7 Lib: 72.3 Ndp: 30.2 Blc: 55.8

Canada - January 15, 2006

2006-01-17T20:50:00.000-07:00

SES Jan. 14
Con: 38.0 Lib: 30.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 140 Lib: 94 Ndp: 23 Blc: 51
Con: 142.1 Lib: 88.6 Ndp: 25.7 Blc: 51.6

Canada - January 14, 2006

2006-01-17T20:49:00.001-07:00

SES Jan. 13
Con: 38.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 144 Lib: 86 Ndp: 22 Blc: 56
Con: 145.2 Lib: 82.1 Ndp: 24.7 Blc: 56.0

Canada - January 13, 2006

2006-01-17T20:49:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 12
Con: 39.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 150 Lib: 76 Ndp: 24 Blc: 58
Con: 151.7 Lib: 75.1 Ndp: 24.5 Blc: 56.6

SES Jan. 12
Con: 40.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 146 Lib: 92 Ndp: 19 Blc: 51
Con: 149.4 Lib: 89.4 Ndp: 18.6 Blc: 50.5

Ekos Jan. 12
Con: 37.6 Lib: 28.3 Ndp: 18.1 Blc: 11.6
Con: 141 Lib: 78 Ndp: 29 Blc: 60
Con: 143.0 Lib: 76.8 Ndp: 29.6 Blc: 58.6

Ipsos Jan. 12
Con: 37.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 138 Lib: 89 Ndp: 29 Blc: 52
Con: 139.9 Lib: 86.2 Ndp: 29.4 Blc: 52.5

Canada - January 12, 2006

2006-01-12T19:04:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 11:
Con: 39.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 150 Lib: 73 Ndp: 24 Blc: 61
Con: 151.2 Lib: 72.3 Ndp: 24.5 Blc: 59.9

Ekos Jan. 11:
Con: 36.3 Lib: 28.8 Ndp: 17.9 Blc: 13.3
Con: 135 Lib: 76 Ndp: 30 Blc: 66
Con: 135.4 Lib: 78.1 Ndp: 30.2 Blc: 63.3

SES Jan. 11:
Con: 38.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 143 Lib: 81 Ndp: 22 Blc: 61
Con: 143.7 Lib: 79.1 Ndp: 24.7 Blc: 59.4

SES Regional Jan. 11:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	39.0	39.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	21.0	17.0	8.0	51.0
ON	43.0	35.0	17.0	0.0
West	46.0	29.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	12	17	3	0	12.1	16.9	3.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	8	0	65	1.6	8.3	0.0	65.1	0	21	0	54
ON	67	29	10	0	63.3	33.6	9.2	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	64	24	6	0	63.3	22.2	8.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	145	78	19	65	140.3	81.0	20.6	65.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - January 11, 2006

2006-01-11T21:45:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 10:
Con: 38.0 Lib: 28.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 148 Lib: 75 Ndp: 24 Blc: 61
Con: 147.4 Lib: 75.0 Ndp: 25.5 Blc: 60.1

SES Jan. 10:
Con: 39.0 Lib: 30.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 144 Lib: 83 Ndp: 21 Blc: 60
Con: 145.8 Lib: 80.6 Ndp: 23.1 Blc: 58.5

SES Regional Jan. 10:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	34.0	38.0	24.0	0.0
PQ	21.0	18.0	8.0	50.0
ON	44.0	37.0	15.0	0.0
West	47.0	29.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	10	19	3	0	10.1	18.3	3.6	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	8	0	65	1.8	8.7	0.0	64.5	0	21	0	54
ON	66	34	6	0	62.7	36.5	6.8	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	68	20	7	0	65.2	20.9	8.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	146	81	16	65	139.8	84.4	19.3	64.5	99	135	19	54

Ekos Jan. 10:
Con: 37.1 Lib: 29.9 Ndp: 17.6 Blc: 11.6
Con: 137 Lib: 86 Ndp: 27 Blc: 58
Con: 137.5 Lib: 85.2 Ndp: 27.8 Blc: 57.5

Average Jan. 10:
Con: 38.0 Lib: 29.3 Ndp: 16.5 Blc: 11.9
Con: 143 Lib: 81 Ndp: 24 Blc: 60
Con: 143.6 Lib: 80.3 Ndp: 25.4 Blc: 58.7

Canada - January 10, 2005

2006-01-10T19:28:00.000-07:00

Ekos Jan. 9
Con: 39.1 Lib: 26.8 Ndp: 16.2 Blc: 12.6
Con: 158 Lib: 61 Ndp: 25 Blc: 64
Con: 154.2 Lib: 65.8 Ndp: 25.6 Blc: 62.4

SES Jan. 9
Con: 35.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 129 Lib: 91 Ndp: 25 Blc: 63
Con: 127.0 Lib: 92.0 Ndp: 27.6 Blc: 61.3

SES Regional Jan. 9

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	27.0	49.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	16.0	18.0	53.0	0.0
ON	42.0	38.0	17.0	0.0
West	43.0	29.0	22.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	4	26	2	0	4.5	25.3	2.2	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	1	74	0	0.0	1.7	73.2	0.0	0	21	0	54
ON	54	43	9	0	56.1	41.4	8.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	58	23	14	0	58.0	22.7	14.2	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	116	93	99	0	118.6	91.1	98.1	0.0	99	135	19	54

Canada - January 9, 2006

2006-01-09T18:19:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 8
Con: 37.0 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 140 Lib: 82 Ndp: 21 Blc: 65
Con: 141.5 Lib: 80.1 Ndp: 23.9 Blc: 62.4

Decima Jan. 8
Con: 36.0 Lib: 27.0 Ndp: 20.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 135 Lib: 78 Ndp: 37 Blc: 58
Con: 138.2 Lib: 75.8 Ndp: 36.3 Blc: 57.7

SES Jan. 8
Con: 34.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 126 Lib: 102 Ndp: 27 Blc: 53
Con: 124.0 Lib: 100.5 Ndp: 28.6 Blc: 54.9

SES Regional Jan. 8

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	24.0	52.0	20.0	0.0
PQ	17.0	21.0	8.0	48.0
ON	39.0	38.0	20.0	0.0
West	45.0	27.0	20.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.0	27.1	1.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	9	0	64	1.3	10.6	0.0	63.1	0	21	0	54
ON	50	45	11	0	48.7	45.3	12.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	67	18	10	0	63.6	19.4	11.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	122	99	23	64	116.7	102.4	25.8	63.1	99	135	19	54

Average Dec. 8:
Con: 35.7 Lib: 29.0 Ndp: 17.3 Blc: 11.7
Con: 135 Lib: 85 Ndp: 29 Blc: 58
Con: 133.7 Lib: 85.2 Ndp: 29.5 Blc: 58.5

Canada - January 8, 2006

2006-01-07T14:39:00.000-07:00

SES Dec. 7
Con: 35.0 Lib: 32.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 127 Lib: 104 Ndp: 25 Blc: 51
Con: 124.5 Lib: 105.4 Ndp: 26.6 Blc: 50.5

SES Regional Dec. 7

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	30.0	47.0	17.0	0.0
PQ	18.0	26.0	9.0	44.0
ON	37.0	38.0	20.0	0.0
West	47.0	26.0	20.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	5.8	24.2	2.0	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	2	15	0	58	1.8	16.6	0.0	56.6	0	21	0	54
ON	45	47	14	0	44.7	48.6	12.7	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	71	14	10	0	67.0	16.7	11.3	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	125	99	26	58	119.3	106.1	26.0	56.6	99	135	19	54

Ipsos Dec. 7
Con: 35.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.4
Con: 128 Lib: 95 Ndp: 29 Blc: 56
Con: 126.5 Lib: 95.7 Ndp: 29.6 Blc: 56.1

Ipsos says their seat projection model gives:
Con 129-133 Lib: 87-91 NDP: 27-31 Blc: 56-60
Since they have regional spilts, and didn't publish them, it is probable their model is better than mine. The results are relatively similar, except they flip about 4-5 liberal seats to the conservatives.

Ekos Dec. 5
Con: 36.0 Lib: 30.8 Ndp: 17.5 Blc: 10.6
Con: 134 Lib: 97 Ndp: 24 Blc: 53
Con: 131.6 Lib: 95.2 Ndp: 27.8 Blc: 53.4

Canada - January 7, 2006

2006-01-06T17:16:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Jan. 6
Con: 33.0 Lib: 31.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 120 Lib: 98 Ndp: 27 Blc: 63
Con: 119.9 Lib: 97.1 Ndp: 29.5 Blc: 61.4

SES Jan. 6
Con: 34.0 Lib: 33.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 120 Lib: 109 Ndp: 27 Blc: 52
Con: 118.9 Lib: 109.4 Ndp: 26.4 Blc: 53.3

SES Jan. 6 Regional:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	35.0	45.0	16.0	0.0
PQ	15.0	27.0	7.0	48.0
ON	33.0	41.0	19.0	0.0
West	49.0	25.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	7.9	22.0	2.1	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.8	14.6	0.0	59.6	0	21	0	54
ON	31	64	11	0	31.9	63.2	10.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	72	13	10	0	69.4	14.0	11.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	110	113	23	62	109.9	113.7	24.6	59.6	99	135	19	54

General Comments

2006-01-02T23:00:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted in a few days. I will start again once the January polls start coming. Before Christmas the average spread tended to be about 6 points.

I haven't explained the format in a while, so here it is. Most of the time, I will post three lines for each poll. First is the raw poll results. Second is a seat projection. Third is a seat projection that incorporates the statistical probability of each party winning each seat. For regional polls the format is quite a bit different. First will be a table with the raw poll results. Next will be another table. It will first have the seat projection, then the projection with probability, then the results from the last election.

The reason for the two different projection methods is that doing the simple projection can lead to one party getting a disproportionate amount of the close seats (I'll call it the lucky effect). Since it is a projection it has variance, and the polls themselves have error margins, so incorporating probability will minimize the lucky effect. Of course, real elections have lucky effects (last election the Conservatives benefitted by five seats and the NDP paid the price), but to try to guess at this effect is a random shot.

Three weeks to go, welcome aboard.

Canada - December 22, 2005

2005-12-22T19:01:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 21
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 15.0
Con: 107 Lib: 111 Ndp: 23 Blc: 67
Con: 102.5 Lib: 114.4 Ndp: 26.6 Blc: 64.4

Leger Dec. 21
Con: 28.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 90 Lib: 135 Ndp: 29 Blc: 54
Con: 89.8 Lib: 135.8 Ndp: 27.6 Blc: 54.6

SES Dec. 21
Con: 29.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 96 Lib: 142 Ndp: 18 Blc: 52
Con: 91.9 Lib: 140.5 Ndp: 21.7 Blc: 53.8

SES Regional Dec. 21

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	29.0	44.0	24.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	6.0	50.0
ON	35.0	42.0	15.0	0.0
West	39.0	35.0	20.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	22	3	0	6.4	22.7	2.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	17.0	0.0	57.9	0	21	0	54
ON	37	62	7	0	34.7	64.3	7.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	46	39	10	0	47.9	36.9	10.1	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	90	139	20	59	89.1	140.9	20.0	57.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 21, 2005

2005-12-21T18:06:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 20
Con: 29.0 Lib: 33.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 15.0
Con: 101 Lib: 107 Ndp: 33 Blc: 67
Con: 100.8 Lib: 111.4 Ndp: 30.8 Blc: 64.9

SES Dec. 20
Con: 31.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 104 Lib: 131 Ndp: 16 Blc: 57
Con: 99.2 Lib: 133.0 Ndp: 18.7 Blc: 57.0

SES Regional Dec. 20

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	35.0	44.0	20.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	5.0	50.0
ON	35.0	43.0	14.0	0.0
West	41.0	33.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	8.2	21.3	2.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.2	17.0	0.0	57.8	0	21	0	54
ON	31	70	5	0	32.9	67.1	5.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	51	34	9	0	51.8	32.5	9.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	89	143	16	59	93.2	137.9	18.0	57.8	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 20, 2005

2005-12-20T18:04:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 19
Con: 29.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 97 Lib: 116 Ndp: 35 Blc: 60
Con: 96.7 Lib: 118.0 Ndp: 33.8 Blc: 59.4

SES Dec. 19
Con: 29.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 92 Lib: 136 Ndp: 23 Blc: 57
Con: 91.2 Lib: 136.1 Ndp: 23.6 Blc: 57.1

SES Regional Dec. 19

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	28.0	47.0	24.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	6.0	51.0
ON	32.0	44.0	18.0	0.0
West	42.0	34.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	5	24	3	0	5.2	24.1	2.7	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	16.2	0.0	58.7	0	21	0	54
ON	26	73	7	0	25.0	72.6	8.4	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	53	34	8	0	53.6	33.5	7.8	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	84	147	18	59	84.0	146.4	18.9	58.7	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 19, 2005

2005-12-20T18:01:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 18
Con: 29.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 19.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 97 Lib: 116 Ndp: 35 Blc: 60
Con: 96.7 Lib: 118.0 Ndp: 33.8 Blc: 59.4

Pollara Dec. 18
Con: 34.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 10.0
Con: 108 Lib: 133 Ndp: 20 Blc: 46
Con: 107.5 Lib: 130.6 Ndp: 22.0 Blc: 46.9

SES Dec. 18
Con: 29.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 83 Lib: 154 Ndp: 19 Blc: 52
Con: 85.9 Lib: 148.7 Ndp: 21.1 Blc: 52.2

SES Regional Dec. 18

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	26.0	54.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	7.0	49.0
ON	32.0	46.0	19.0	0.0
West	42.0	32.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.0	27.2	1.8	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	18	0	57	0.2	17.8	0.0	57.0	0	21	0	54
ON	22	77	7	0	21.6	76.5	7.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	54	32	9	0	55.2	30.0	9.7	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	79	154	18	57	80.1	151.5	19.4	57.0	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 18, 2005

2005-12-20T17:58:00.000-07:00

SES Dec. 17
Con: 30.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 96 Lib: 141 Ndp: 16 Blc: 55
Con: 92.5 Lib: 139.3 Ndp: 19.9 Blc: 56.3

SES Regional Dec. 17

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	24.0	54.0	20.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	26.0	8.0	53.0
ON	33.0	44.0	18.0	0.0
West	43.0	34.0	16.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	2.5	27.8	1.7	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	9	0	66	0.1	10.9	0.0	64.0	0	21	0	54
ON	27	72	7	0	26.8	70.9	8.3	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	57	33	5	0	55.7	33.2	6.1	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	87	141	14	66	85.2	142.8	16.0	64.0	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 17, 2005

2005-12-20T17:57:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 16
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 101 Lib: 114 Ndp: 33 Blc: 60
Con: 101.0 Lib: 116.8 Ndp: 30.8 Blc: 59.4

SES Dec. 16
Con: 31.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 96 Lib: 146 Ndp: 14 Blc: 52
Con: 93.7 Lib: 145.5 Ndp: 16.6 Blc: 52.1

SES Regional Dec. 16

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	32.0	48.0	16.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	28.0	8.0	52.0
ON	34.0	45.0	16.0	0.0
West	43.0	38.0	14.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	6.1	24.0	1.9	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	11	0	64	0.1	12.6	0.0	62.3	0	21	0	54
ON	27	74	5	0	27.2	72.6	6.3	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	52	40	3	0	51.5	39.6	3.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	86	148	10	64	84.8	148.8	12.1	62.3	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 16, 2005

2005-12-16T17:22:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 15
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 102 Lib: 112 Ndp: 29 Blc: 64
Con: 100.7 Lib: 115.3 Ndp: 28.7 Blc: 62.2

SES Dec. 15
Con: 33.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 12.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 104 Lib: 140 Ndp: 11 Blc: 52
Con: 100.4 Lib: 141.6 Ndp: 13.0 Blc: 52.0

SES Regional Dec. 15

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	40.0	45.0	12.0	0.0
PQ	8.0	30.0	7.0	52.0
ON	38.0	41.0	15.0	0.0
West	44.0	40.0	13.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	9	21	2	0	10.0	20.3	1.6	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.1	14.0	0.0	60.9	0	21	0	54
ON	43	56	7	0	42.7	56.3	7.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	47	44	3	0	49.5	41.4	3.2	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	99	134	12	62	102.2	132.0	11.8	60.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 15, 2005

2005-12-15T19:10:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 14
Con: 29.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 98 Lib: 114 Ndp: 31 Blc: 64
Con: 97.3 Lib: 117.9 Ndp: 29.5 Blc: 62.2

SES Dec. 14
Con: 32.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 12.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 100 Lib: 144 Ndp: 11 Blc: 52
Con: 97.0 Lib: 144.5 Ndp: 13.4 Blc: 52.1

SES Regional Dec. 14

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	40.0	45.0	11.0	0.0
PQ	6.0	31.0	8.0	51.0
ON	37.0	43.0	14.0	0.0
West	42.0	38.0	15.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	9	21	2	0	10.1	20.4	1.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	14	0	61	0.1	15.4	0.0	59.5	0	21	0	54
ON	38	63	5	0	37.0	63.4	5.7	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	47	44	3	0	48.9	40.5	4.5	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	94	142	10	61	96.0	139.8	11.7	59.5	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 14, 2005

2005-12-14T18:27:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 13:
Con: 31.0 Lib: 33.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 109 Lib: 109 Ndp: 27 Blc: 62
Con: 106.8 Lib: 111.0 Ndp: 29.0 Blc: 60.1

SES Dec. 13
Con: 31.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 99 Lib: 142 Ndp: 14 Blc: 52
Con: 95.6 Lib: 140.8 Ndp: 17.6 Blc: 52.9

Leger Dec. 13
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 97 Lib: 127 Ndp: 29 Blc: 54
Con: 94.9 Lib: 128.4 Ndp: 28.2 Blc: 55.4

Ipsos Dec. 13
Con: 27.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 83 Lib: 132 Ndp: 30 Blc: 62
Con: 85.3 Lib: 132.2 Ndp: 28.4 Blc: 60.9

SES Regional Dec. 13

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	39.0	48.0	11.0	0.0
PQ	8.0	30.0	8.0	52.0
ON	37.0	46.0	13.0	0.0
West	40.0	34.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	8.4	22.3	1.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.1	14.0	0.0	60.9	0	21	0	54
ON	29	73	4	0	31.4	70.6	4.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	49	36	9	0	49.8	35.5	8.5	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	85	145	15	62	89.7	142.4	13.8	60.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 13, 2005

2005-12-13T17:58:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 12:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 103 Lib: 122 Ndp: 20 Blc: 62
Con: 96.2 Lib: 125.7 Ndp: 24.1 Blc: 60.9

SES Dec. 12:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 13.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 95 Lib: 138 Ndp: 14 Blc: 60
Con: 92.5 Lib: 138.4 Ndp: 16.6 Blc: 59.4

SES Regional Dec. 12

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	28.0	53.0	15.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	27.0	8.0	55.0
ON	36.0	48.0	12.0	0.0
West	41.0	34.0	17.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.7	27.0	1.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	8	0	67	0.0	10.5	0.0	64.5	0	21	0	54
ON	26	77	3	0	25.9	77.1	3.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	52	34	8	0	51.5	35.0	7.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	81	146	13	67	81.2	149.5	11.6	64.5	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 12, 2005

2005-12-12T17:40:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 11:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 104 Lib: 120 Ndp: 20 Blc: 63
Con: 99.6 Lib: 122.3 Ndp: 23.4 Blc: 61.6

SES Dec. 11:
Con: 31.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 95 Lib: 144 Ndp: 14 Blc: 54
Con: 92.6 Lib: 142.3 Ndp: 16.6 Blc: 55.4

SES Regional Dec. 11:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	28.0	53.0	18.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	30.0	8.0	51.0
ON	36.0	47.0	13.0	0.0
West	44.0	33.0	17.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	3.7	26.7	1.6	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	13	0	62	0.2	14.7	0.0	60.1	0	21	0	54
ON	27	75	4	0	27.7	74.6	3.7	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	58	30	6	0	56.9	30.3	6.8	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	88	145	12	62	88.4	146.3	12.1	60.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 11, 2005

2005-12-12T17:36:00.000-07:00

Ipsos Dec. 10
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 106 Lib: 114 Ndp: 23 Blc: 64
Con: 101.5 Lib: 116.6 Ndp: 26.6 Blc: 62.2

SES Dec. 10
Con: 32.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 14.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 100 Lib: 140 Ndp: 13 Blc: 54
Con: 96.0 Lib: 139.5 Ndp: 16.1 Blc: 55.4

SES Regional Dec. 10

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	30.0	53.0	15.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	7.0	51.0
ON	36.0	46.0	14.0	0.0
West	44.0	34.0	18.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	4	26	2	0	4.2	26.5	1.3	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	16.2	0.0	58.7	0	21	0	54
ON	29	73	4	0	29.4	72.1	4.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	56	32	6	0	55.4	31.4	7.1	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	89	147	12	59	89.1	146.2	12.9	58.7	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 10, 2005

2005-12-12T17:34:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 9
Con: 28.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 89 Lib: 130 Ndp: 26 Blc: 62
Con: 89.4 Lib: 131.0 Ndp: 25.6 Blc: 60.9

SES Dec. 9
Con: 30.0 Lib: 39.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 89 Lib: 154 Ndp: 14 Blc: 50
Con: 89.0 Lib: 150.3 Ndp: 18.8 Blc: 48.9

SES Regional Dec. 9

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	36.0	50.0	11.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	8.0	48.0
ON	32.0	48.0	16.0	0.0
West	41.0	34.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	24	1	0	6.7	24.2	1.1	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	19	0	56	0.3	18.6	0.0	56.1	0	21	0	54
ON	16	86	4	0	18.7	82.3	5.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	51	34	9	0	50.1	32.8	10.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	74	163	14	56	75.7	157.9	17.1	56.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 9, 2005

2005-12-12T17:32:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 8
Con: 30.0 Lib: 36.0 Ndp: 15.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 103 Lib: 123 Ndp: 19 Blc: 62
Con: 96.9 Lib: 126.9 Ndp: 22.2 Blc: 60.9

SES Dec. 8
Con: 26.0 Lib: 41.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 67 Lib: 171 Ndp: 22 Blc: 47
Con: 69.4 Lib: 165.9 Ndp: 24.1 Blc: 47.5

SES Regional Dec. 8

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	30.0	55.0	10.0	0.0
PQ	9.0	32.0	7.0	50.0
ON	28.0	48.0	20.0	0.0
West	34.0	37.0	25.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	29	0	0	3.7	27.7	0.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.1	17.0	0.0	57.9	0	21	0	54
ON	11	87	8	0	12.7	85.7	7.6	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	40	42	12	0	38.5	40.7	14.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	54	174	20	59	55.1	171.2	22.7	57.9	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 8, 2005

2005-12-08T17:42:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 7
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 99 Lib: 122 Ndp: 27 Blc: 59
Con: 95.5 Lib: 126.6 Ndp: 26.1 Blc: 58.7

SES Dec. 7
Con: 26.0 Lib: 40.0 Ndp: 18.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 69 Lib: 163 Ndp: 25 Blc: 50
Con: 71.7 Lib: 161.3 Ndp: 25.5 Blc: 48.3

Decima Dec. 7
Con: 26.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 20.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 85 Lib: 120 Ndp: 38 Blc: 64
Con: 84.6 Lib: 121.2 Ndp: 38.7 Blc: 62.3

SES Regional Dec. 7

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	26.0	58.0	12.0	0.0
PQ	7.0	32.0	10.0	49.0
ON	28.0	47.0	19.0	0.0
West	36.0	35.0	24.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	2	30	0	0	2.1	29.4	0.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	18	0	57	0.1	17.8	0.0	57.1	0	21	0	54
ON	11	87	8	0	14.0	84.4	7.5	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	42	38	14	0	42.4	36.5	14.9	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	55	173	22	57	58.7	168.2	22.9	57.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 7, 2005

2005-12-07T22:21:00.000-07:00

Strategic Vision Dec. 6
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 99 Lib: 118 Ndp: 27 Blc: 63
Con: 95.5 Lib: 123.7 Ndp: 26.1 Blc: 61.6

SES Dec. 6
Con: 28.0 Lib: 40.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 11.0
Con: 75 Lib: 162 Ndp: 20 Blc: 50
Con: 78.5 Lib: 157.8 Ndp: 22.4 Blc: 48.2

SES Dec. 6 Regional

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	19.0	58.0	19.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	32.0	8.0	46.0
ON	28.0	48.0	19.0	0.0
West	42.0	34.0	21.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	0	31	1	0	0.9	29.9	1.2	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	21	0	54	0.4	20.2	0.0	54.4	0	21	0	54
ON	11	90	5	0	12.8	86.3	6.9	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	51	34	9	0	51.5	31.9	10.6	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	62	176	15	54	65.5	168.3	18.7	54.4	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 6, 2005

2005-12-06T18:19:00.000-07:00

The new format, which started yesterday is poll, then seat projection, then seat projection probability.

Dec. 5 Strategic vision:
Con: 29.0 Lib: 35.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 99 Lib: 118 Ndp: 27 Blc: 63
Con: 95.5 Lib: 123.7 Ndp: 26.1 Blc: 61.6

Dec. 5 SES:
Con: 30.0 Lib: 38.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 12.0
Con: 95 Lib: 142 Ndp: 18 Blc: 52
Con: 91.0 Lib: 141.3 Ndp: 21.7 Blc: 53.0

Dec. 5 SES Regional:

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	23.0	54.0	18.0	0.0
PQ	10.0	31.0	7.0	47.0
ON	29.0	47.0	18.0	0.0
West	45.0	32.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	2	28	2	0	2.3	28.2	1.5	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	19	0	56	0.3	18.6	0.0	56.1	0	21	0	54
ON	12	89	5	0	15.5	83.7	6.8	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	61	27	6	0	58.6	27.0	8.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	75	163	13	56	76.7	157.5	16.7	56.1	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 5, 2005

2005-12-05T17:37:00.000-07:00

SES Dec. 4
Con: 30.0 Lib: 37.0 Ndp: 16.0 Blc: 13.0
Con: 99 Lib: 132 Ndp: 19 Blc: 57
Con: 93.6 Lib: 133.4 Ndp: 22.9 Blc: 57.1

Strategic Vision Dec. 3
Con: 30.0 Lib: 34.0 Ndp: 17.0 Blc: 14.0
Con: 102 Lib: 112 Ndp: 29 Blc: 64
Con: 100.7 Lib: 115.3 Ndp: 28.7 Blc: 62.2

SES Region Dec. 4
From now on with regional polls, I will post the poll results in a table, then a table with the projected results, projected probability, and last election's results.

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	21.0	50.0	21.0	0.0
PQ	12.0	30.0	6.0	49.0
ON	30.0	46.0	19.0	0.0
West	45.0	32.0	19.0	0.0

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	3	27	2	0	2.7	27.1	2.2	0.0	7	22	3	0
PQ	0	16	0	59	0.3	16.2	0.0	58.4	0	21	0	54
ON	16	82	8	0	18.3	79.6	8.0	0.0	24	75	7	0
West	61	27	6	0	58.6	27.0	8.4	0.0	68	17	9	0
All	80	152	16	59	80.0	149.9	18.6	58.4	99	135	19	54

Canada - December 4, 2005

2005-12-04T12:06:00.000-07:00

SES Poll: C 29 L 38 N 15 B 14
Projects: C 90 L 148 N 16 B 54
Probability: C 89.1 L 142.7 N 20.5 B 55.7

No Strategic Vision update yet.

Canada - December 3, 2005

2005-12-03T13:02:00.000-07:00

Decima Poll: C 31 L 33 N 17 B 14
Projects: C 110 L 110 N 27 B 61
Probability: C 107.7 L 111.5 N 29.1 B 59.5

Ekos Poll: C 27.4 L 34.1 N 18.4 B 14.0
Projects: C 93 L 121 N 35 B 59
Probability: C 91.5 N 123.8 N 33.8 B 58.8

Average of last four: C 29.9 L 34.5 N 16.4 B 14
Projects: C 103 L 121 N 25 B 59
Probability: C 100.7 L 122.0 N 26.9 B 58.4

Canada - December 2, 2005

2005-12-03T12:27:00.000-07:00

Tracking polls have started, which should mean near daily updates here. I have made a new program that incorporates statistical probability, so I will post those numbers too. They will generally be similar to the other projection, but are a slightly better estimate of what will happen. It will sum to a little bit less than 308, due to small probabilities of independants in some seats, but it should be close to 308. I will also stop posting links now. Go to the Globe and Mail and SES sites if you like.

Strategic vision poll: C 30 L 35 N 16 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 121 N 23 B 59
With probability: C 100.0 L 124.6 N 25.4 B 58.0

SES poll: C 31 L 36 N 14 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 128 N 18 B 57
With probability: C 102.0 L 129.0 N 19.8 B 57.2

Average: C 30.5 L 35.5 N 15 B 14
Projects to: C 105 L 124 N 20 B 59
With probability: C 101.1 L 126.8 N 22.5 B 57.6

SES Regional (West of Ontario was grouped, I will have to update the software, totals use 2004 numbers):

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc
East	7	23	2	0	5.5	24.3	2.1	0
PQ	0	12	0	63	0.1	13.2	0	61.7
ON	29	69	8	0	28.6	68.6	8.8	0
West
All	105	121	18	63

2004 Canadian Election

2005-11-30T21:51:00.000-07:00

As a point of reference, here is what happened in 2004.

	Con	Lib	Ndp	Blc	Ind
East	7	22	3	0	0
PQ	0	21	0	54	0
ON	24	75	7	0	0
M/S	20	4	4	0	0
AB	26	2	0	0	0
BC	22	11	5	0	1
All	99	135	19	54	1

Housekeeping Notes

2005-11-30T21:43:00.000-07:00

Some housekeeping notes:
Since the Canadian election has been called, I will try to update this site regularly. If regional splits are available, I will post those projections. If nothing is mentioned, I haven't found them. If you have found them, then email me.

All of the projections are done with software I've put together. That should be reasonably good at calling winners. I might try to add some more sophication and probability to the software, it would have helped a bit in the BC election. The projections are based on the 2004 election results, so party switches since then will not be considered. The Green Party was not competitive in any seats in 2004, so they will be neglected. If the Blc polling result is not given in the poll, I will make an assumption. Projected Blc seat counts from a national poll is not a great way of doing things, but it is all that can be done.

One riding in 2004 was won by an independent. The winner in that riding, Chuck Cadman, died in July 2005. So hereafter, this seat will be projected to the conservative party, since it doesn't make sense to project it as independent. That is not a certain result, but is likely.

Canada - November 30, 2005

2005-11-30T21:39:00.000-07:00

Ipsos Poll: Con 31 Lib 31 Ndp 18 Blc 14
Projects to: Con 112 Lib 100 Ndp 33 Ind 1 Blc 62

Canada Election Polls - November 28, 2005

2005-11-28T21:21:00.000-07:00

Ipsos Poll: Con 30 Lib 34 Ndp 16 Blc 15
Projects to: Con 106 Lib 117 Ndp 23 Blc 61

Ekos Poll: Con 29.4 Lib 38.7 Ndp 16.9 Blc 10.6
Project to: Con 84 Lib 148 Ndp 23 Blc 52
Also includes regional splits.
Those project to: Con 81 Lib 148 Ndp 24 Blc 54

Pollara Poll: Con 31 Lib 36 Ndp 16 Blc 14
Projects to: Con 104 Lib 126 Ndp 20 Blc 57
Also includes regional splits. They grouped AB with MB/SK for some reason, so will use the Ekos numbers in those two regions.
Those project to: Con 104 Lib 107 Ndp 29 Blc 67

Canada Election Polls - November 17, 2005

2005-11-17T21:28:00.000-07:00

SES Poll: Con 28 Lib 34 Ndp 20 Blc 13
Projects to: Con 94 Lib 118 Ndp 36 Blc 59 Ind 1
Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13.

Pollara Poll: Con 28 Lib 36 Ndp 20 Blc 11
Projects to: Con 86 Lib 131 Ndp 36 Blc 54 Ind 1

Decima Poll: Con 26 Lib 33 Ndp 22 Blc 13
Projects to: Con 86 Lib 115 Ndp 47 Blc 59 Ind 1

Note: I have stopped posted Grn totals, since it is unlikely they will win any seats. If they do, it would probably be a regional trend, rather than a national one.

Canada Election Polls - November 12, 2005

2005-11-12T12:28:00.000-07:00

Ipsos Poll: Con 28 Lib 34 Ndp 19 Blc 13 Gre 4
Projects to: Con 95 Lib 118 Ndp 35 Blc 59 Ind 1

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13. No regional splits were listed.

Ekos Poll: Con 28 Lib 33 Ndp 21 Blc 13 Gre 4
Projects to: Con 93 Lib 113 Ndp 42 Blc 59 Ind 1

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13, Gre assumed to be 4. Not all regional splits were listed.

Decima Poll: Con 30 Lib 33 Ndp 20 Blc 14 Gre 3
Projects to: Con 99 Lib 110 Ndp 37 Blc 61 Ind 1

Grn was not listed, assumed to be 3. Not all regional splits were listed.

Canada Election - November 4, 2005 Poll

2005-11-05T16:09:00.000-07:00

Gregg Poll:
Con 31 Lib 28 Ndp 20 Blc 13 Gre 7

Blc was not listed, assumed to be 13.

Projects to: Con 118 Lib 84 Ndp 41 Blc 64 Ind 1

Unfortunately, no regional splits were listed. There was also an Ipsos Poll on Nov. 4, but I can't find any information on it.

This site

2005-05-21T13:15:00.000-06:00

Since a Canadian election is no longer imminent, I have kind of lost interest in this site. I might post occassionally, but the rate will decrease. At some point I will get to a post-election review of the BC results.

Canada Election - May 17, 2005 Poll

2005-05-17T17:58:00.000-06:00

Decima poll:
Con 31 Lib 32 Ndp 19 Blc 14

Projects to:
Con 109 Lib 114 Ndp 35 Blc 49 Ind 1

Some regional results are included, but not all. Guesses are necessary to do projections.

Ontario:
Con 34 Lib 40, my guess is Ndp 20
Quebec:
Lib 21 Blc 56, my guess is Con 10 Ndp 10

Projects to:

	ON 2005	ON 2004	PQ 2005	PQ 2004
Con	37	24	0	0
Lib	58	75	8	21
Ndp	11	7	0	0
Blc	0	0	67	54

Canada Election - May 16, 2005 Ontario Poll

2005-05-16T18:41:00.000-06:00

Leger poll of Ontario for the federal election:
Con 31 Lib 43 Ndp 19

Translates to:

	ON 2005	ON 2004
Con	25	24
Lib	70	75
Ndp	11	7

Last election ON was:
Con 31.63 Lib 44.51 Ndp 18.09

This poll was conducted on May 3-9.

Canada Election - May 14, 2005 Regional Poll

2005-05-14T12:29:00.000-06:00

Thanks to Neale News, the regional results of the Ipsos poll mentioned below are available. They project to:
Con 107 Lib 93 Ndp 39 Blc 68 Ind 1

Here are the results by region:

	East 2005	East 2004	PQ 2005	PQ 2004	ON 2005	ON 2004
Con	11	7	0	0	45	24
Lib	17	22	7	21	40	75
Ndp	4	3	0	0	21	7
Blc	0	0	68	54	0	0

	M/S 2005	M/S 2004	AB 2005	AB 2004	BC 2005	BC 2004
Con	11	20	26	26	14	22
Lib	8	4	2	2	19	11
Ndp	9	4	0	0	5	5
Ind	0	0	0	0	1	1

Canada Election - May 14, 2005 Poll

2005-05-14T12:21:00.000-06:00

Ipsos:
Con 31 Lib 27 Ndp 19 Blc 13 Grn 6

Projects to:
Con 120 Lib 81 Ndp 41 Blc 65 Ind 1

This is a national poll, without the regional splits. So the projection isn't nearly as accurate as it can be. Ipsos used to post regional results, but now that is only for paying customers. Please comment or email if you find a regional split.

For national projections, there will pretty much always be one independent.

BC Election - May 13, 2005 poll

2005-05-13T18:31:00.000-06:00

Today's polls:

Ipsos:
Libs 47% Ndp 39% Grn 11%

Strategic Council:
BC Libs 49% Ndp 36% Grn 13%

Ipsos projects to:
Libs 52 NDP 27 Grn 0

Strategic Council projects to:
Libs 59 NDP 20 Grn 0

I've hardly heard of Strategic Council, so I would be inclined to put more faith in the Ipsos poll. Either way, it is a clear majority, but down from 77-2 last election.

Purpose of this site

2005-05-13T18:22:00.000-06:00

The purpose of this site is to post election polls. Where possible, these will be translated into seat counts. If you have a poll, send it to me at electionpoll@gmail.com.